Increased demand from other nationalities in Q4

DTZ Research
PROPERTY TIMES
Singapore residential demand Q4 2014
Increased demand from other
nationalities in Q4

Although transactions of private homes held up quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q4,
they fell by about 38% compared to the same period last year. For the whole of
2014, private residential transactions amounted to about 12,200 units, comprising
6,700 units (55%) in the primary market and another 5,500 units (45%) in the
secondary market. The fall in primary market transactions was more pronounced,
declining by 54% year-on-year (y-o-y). Besides the weakened buying sentiment,
the significant slowdown in primary market sales was also a result of the cut back
in private home launches in the year.

As the overall number of new launches fell in 2014, the share of private home
purchases by Singaporean buyers comprised only 71% of all sales for the year.
This was 4.0 and 6.0 percentage-points lower than their shares recorded in 2013
and 2012 respectively. In contrast, the proportion of purchases by Singapore
Permanent Residents (PRs) increased by 3.0 percentage-points to18% in 2014,
while the proportion of purchases by foreigners remained relatively unchanged y-oy, recording a 9% share for both 2013 and 2014.

In Q4, about 78% of all transactions by non-Singaporeans were attributed to the
top-four buyer groups from mainland Chinese, Malaysians, Indonesians and
Indians). This was 4.0 percentage-points lower than their collective share in Q3.
Instead, the quarter recorded increased activity by other nationalities, namely from
United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK) and other nationalities in
South East Asia (SEA). Unlike the USA and UK nationals, slightly over 50% of
purchases by these SEA nationals in Q4 were concentrated in District 1 (Figure 1).

The proportion of buyers with HDB addresses increased by 3.0 percentage-points
to 47% in 2014. The overall number of purchases by HDB addressees was
boosted by the 2,315 primary market sales in H1 2014 compared to the 1,368 units
purchased in H2. Major projects launched in H1 were located in suburban areas
and had between 60% and 83% of purchases by buyers with HDB addresses. On
the other hand, for most of the major projects launched in H2, the bulk of buyers
had private addresses.
9 March 2015
Contents
Transactional overview
2
Buyer’s profile
By residential status
3
By nationality
4
By buyer address
6
Outlook
7
Figure 1
Contacts
Lee Nai Jia
Associate Director, Research
[email protected]
Ong Choon Fah
Head of Consulting & Research, SEA
[email protected]
Private home purchases by nationality and postal district (Q4 2014)
40
35
30
20
18
15
10
Dominic Brown
Head of South East Asia and Australia
New Zealand Research
[email protected]
16
25
5
5
7
0
USA
District 1
14
19
4
1
United Kingdom
Prime districts (9, 10 and 11)
SEA*
Non-prime districts
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
**These countries include Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
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Property Times
1
Transactional overview
Figure 2
Private residential transactions based on caveats
The fall in primary market transactions was evident throughout
the whole of 2014, where only about 6,700 units were
transacted (Table 1). This was less than half of the 14,640
transactions recorded for 2013. The drastic slowdown in
primary market sales was reflective of the cautious attitude by
buyers brought on by the several rounds of cooling measures
and the implementation of the Total Debt Servicing Ratio
(TDSR) framework in June 2013. Amidst the weakened buying
sentiment, developers have also cut back or staggered the
pace of new launches, which contributed as well to the lower
primary transaction volume as well.
12,000
Avg 8,059 units Avg 8,882 units
per quarter
per quarter Avg 5,601 units
per quarter
10,000
Avg 3,052 units
per quarter
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q3 13
Q2 13
Q1 13
Q4 12
Q3 12
Q2 12
Q1 12
Q4 11
Q3 11
0
Q2 11
Proxied by caveats lodged, there were 2,804 private home
2
transactions in Q4, comprising 1,363 units sold in the
secondary market and 1,441 units in the primary market
(Figure 2). The primary market caveats in Q4 was about 4.7%
3
higher than the1,376 units sold by developers based on
developers surveys . Although total transaction volume in Q4
2014 was fairly steady on a q-o-q basis, it was 38.0% lower
than the transaction volume recorded in the same period last
year. Compared to Q4 2013, primary sales fell stronger,
declining by about 54.0% while secondary sales volume only
declined by a marginal 1.2%.
14,000
Q1 11
This report provides an update on the profiles of the buyers of
private residential properties in Singapore in both the primary
and secondary markets in Q4 2014. The demand analysis is
1
based on caveats lodged for both primary and secondary
sales. Secondary sales refer to both resales and sub-sales.
Sold in primary market
Sold in secondary market
No. of launched units
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
Table 1
Primary and secondary sales based on caveats
Type of sale Q4
2014
Q3
2014
Q4 vs Q3 2014
change
(%)
y-o-y
change
(%)
Primary
1,441
1,285
12.1%
6,697
-54.2%
Secondary
1,363
1,528
-10.8%
5,509
-29.1%
Resales
1,236
1,377
-10.2%
4,944
-25.8%
151
-15.9%
565
-48.6%
2,813
-0.3%
12,206
-45.5%
Sub-sales 127
Total
2,804
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
Meanwhile, secondary sales transactions over the whole of
2014 were less adversely affected, registering a softer y-o-y
decline of 29.1%. In fact, in the number of private homes
transacted in the secondary market actually increased by 10%
in H2 2014 compared to the first half of the year, from 2,618
units to 2,891 units.
With a total of 12,206 units transacted in both primary and
secondary markets in 2014, quarterly sales for the year
averaged 3,052 units. This was 46% and 66% lower than the
quarterly average recorded in 2013 and 2012 respectively.
1
Caveats were downloaded from URA REALIS on 17 February 2015. Some caveats may not be
lodged immediately after an option is exercised. Records in the transaction database are therefore
incremental over time. Hence q-o-q/y-o-y declines are best proxies for maximum declines while q-oq/y-o-y increases may reflect minimum increases.
2
Caveats lodged are used as a proxy for sales transactions, thus the terms “transactions” and
“caveats” are used interchangeably in this report.
3
The total number of units sold be developers is based on regular surveys carried out by the Urban
Redevelopment Authority (URA)
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2
Buyer’s profile
Figure 3
The buying patterns of foreign buyers shifted accordingly with
the new launches in the private residential market. In Q4, the
proportion of purchases by foreigners in the CCR increased to
40% (Figure 5). This was due to the launch of Marina One
Residences in the last quarter of the year. Of the 107 units
purchased by foreigners in the CCR in Q4, 51 units originated
from sales at Marina One Residences. The last time the
proportion of purchases by foreigners in the CCR reached
close to 40% was in Q4 2013. This corresponded with the
launch of residential units at DUO Residences.
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1%
3%
2%
Singaporeans
Singapore PR
Foreigners
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q3 13
Q2 13
Q1 13
Q4 12
Q3 12
Q2 12
0.0
Companies
Figure 4
Profile of purchases by residential status by year
1% 6% 7% 4% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2%
6% 9% 9%
11%
11% 13% 11% 9% 12% 18% 16%
15% 18%
12%
13%
13%
13% 13% 13%
13%
100%
80%
60%
40%
76% 70%
76% 72% 67% 77% 75% 71%
66% 72%
Singaporeans
Singapore PR
Foreigners
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0%
2007
20%
Companies
Figure 5
Foreign purchases by market segment based on caveats
800
60%
600
40%
400
20%
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
Q4 13
0
Q3 13
200
Q2 13
Proportion of purchases by foreigners in the Core
Central Region (CCR) peaked in Q4
1%
2%
0.2
Q1 13
On the other hand, the proportion of purchases by foreign
buyers ranged between 8% and 11% per quarter in 2014.
Unlike the other buyer groups, the proportion of purchases by
foreigners remained relatively unchanged y-o-y, recording a
9% share for both 2013 and 2014.
1%
79% 78% 76% 75% 73% 78% 75% 73%
70% 74% 69% 70%
Q4 12
Meanwhile, as the proportion of purchases by Singaporeans
declined in 2014, those by Singapore Permanent Residents
(PRs) increased to 18%. This was the highest yearly proportion
of purchases by Singapore PRs since data was first collected
in 1995. This could be linked to the mandatory three-year wait
period for newly minted Singapore PRs before being eligible to
buy a resale public flat. The rule which came into effect in Q3
2013 could have shifted some demand to the private housing
market. Indeed, the proportion of private home purchases by
Singapore PRs began to increase from Q3 2013. This was
even despite the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD)
payable on a first private home purchase for Singapore PRs
which was implemented in January 2013. For the whole of
2014, the proportion of purchases by Singapore PRs for each
quarter ranged between 17% and 19%.
0.4
Q3 12
Proportion of purchases by Singapore PRs reached
new record in 2014
1%
1%
0.6
2006
The overall number of new launches and primary market
transactions fell in 2014, the share of private home purchases
by Singaporean buyers comprised only 71% of all sales for the
year (Figure 4). This was 4.0 and 6.0 percentage-points lower
than their shares recorded in 2013 and 2012 respectively.
1%
7% 7% 7% 10% 8% 9% 9% 11% 8% 9% 10%
15% 15% 16% 16%
17% 14% 15% 16% 19% 17% 19% 18%
Q2 12
Out of the 2,804 units that transacted in Q4 alone, about 70%
(1,973 units) were purchased by Singaporeans. This proportion
was similar to Singaporean’s share of purchases for both Q1
and Q3 2014 (Figure 3). In Q2 2014 however, in line with the
larger number of private residential launches for the quarter,
the proportion of purchases by Singaporeans was higher at
74% (2,992 units). Generally, Singaporean buyers are more
active in the primary market.
0.8
ABSD TDSR
1%
Q1 12
Share of private homes purchased by Singaporeans
declined in 2014
1.2 ABSD
1%
1.0 5%
2005
As the number of private home transactions declined y-o-y,
several changes in transaction patterns were observed across
the different buyer groups.
Profile of purchases by residential status by quarter
Q1 12
By residential status
0%
Core Central Region (CCR)
Rest of Central Region (RCR)
Outside Central Region (OCR)
% of foreign purchases in the CCR (RHS)
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
Property Times
3
By nationality
Figure 6
Profile of non-Singaporean purchasers by nationality
In absolute terms, only private home purchases by mainland
Chinese increased q-o-q in Q4 to 229 units, while purchases
by Malaysians, Indonesians and Indians decreased. Private
home purchases by Indian buyers declined the most q-o-q, by
18.0% from 99 units in Q3 to 73 units in Q4. Of the top-four
non-Singaporean buyers, Indian buyers were least active in the
primary market, recording only 12 transactions in Q4 (Table 2).
Instead, the bulk of purchases by Indian buyers (61 units) in
Q4 were in the secondary market.
Meanwhile in Q4, of the top-four non Singaporean buyers,
Malaysians were most active in the primary market, recording
slightly 131 transactions. The bulk of these buyers could have
been from the launch of Marina One Residences. The project,
which is a joint development between the Malaysian and
Singapore governments (M+S Pte Ltd), saw a substantial
amount of interest from Malaysian buyers. Chinese buyers
were close behind with 125 units transacted in the primary
market, while Indonesian buyers had 73% of their purchases
(66 units) concentrated in the primary market.
25%
80%
12%
60%
26%
20%
19%
19%
22%
11%
11%
8%
9%
29%
25%
29%
18%
23%
22%
22%
30%
Indonesia
Malaysia
China
India
Q4 14
12%
Q3 14
14%
Q2 14
28%
Q1 14
29%
Q4 13
Q3 13
Q2 13
Q1 13
Q4 12
Q3 12
Q2 12
Q3 11
16%
0%
Q1 12
21%
20%
Q4 11
40%
Q2 11
A total of 776 units were purchased by non-Singaporeans
4
buyers in Q4, similar to the 787 units purchased in the
previous quarter. In Q4 about 78% of non-Singaporean
purchases were attributed to the top-four non-Singaporean
buyer groups, comprising mainland Chinese (30%), Malaysians
(28%), Indonesians (12%) and Indians (9%). This, however,
was 4.0 percentage-points lower than their collective share in
Q3 and was also their lowest proportion recorded since Q2
2011 (Figure 6).
100%
Q1 11
Proportion of purchases by top-four nonSingaporean buyer groups fell in Q4
Others
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
Table 2
Purchases by top-four non Singaporean buyers
China
Malaysia
Indonesia India
Q4 2014
Primary
125
(55%)
131
(61%)
66
(73%)
12
(16%)
Secondary
104
(45%)
84
(39%)
24
(27%)
61
(84%)
Primary
122
(57%)
118
(54%)
68
(62%)
12
(12%)
Secondary
92
(43%)
102
(46%)
42
(38%)
87
(88%)
Q3 2014
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
Indonesian buyers more active in the primary market
Figure 7
Purchases by Indonesian buyers by sale type
100%
80%
50%
53%
59%
71%
69%
2014
46%
2011
20%
2010
40%
2013
60%
2009
0%
Primary sales
2012
For Indonesian buyers alone, it was observed that the average
proportion of their purchases in the primary market had
increased in the past two years. Between 2013 and 2014,
about 70% of their transactions were concentrated in the
primary market (Figure 6). However when compared to the
past four-year annual average (2009-2012), only 52% of their
transactions were primary sales. This could be reflective of the
increased efforts by marketing firms in launching new
residential projects overseas, in particular in Indonesia. It also
suggests a widening demographic of Indonesian buyers for
Singapore properties. In previous years, the bulk of Indonesian
buyers were high income earners and thus were more inclined
to stick to prime districts 9, 10 and 11 for residential purchases.
However, a growing proportion of middle-income buyers from
Indonesia are buying properties in Singapore and these groups
are willing to purchase residential units in the suburban areas
from the primary market.
Secondary sales
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
4
Across the different residential statuses, Singapore PRs and foreigners constitute the nonSingaporean buyers.
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4
Increased purchases by other nationalities in Q4
Figure 8
As the proportion of purchases by the top-four nonSingaporeans fell in Q4, the quarter recorded increased activity
by other nationalities, namely from USA, UK and from some
countries in the South East Asian (SEA) region (excluding
Malaysia and Indonesia). These buyer groups recorded 30, 19
and 37 transactions respectively in the last quarter of the year.
For the full year, there were 119 and 58 purchases by USA and
UK nationals while buyers from SEA contributed with a total of
127 purchases. Out of these buyer groups, only USA nationals
are exempted from paying the ABSD on their first private home
purchase. USA nationals are accorded with the same
treatment as Singaporeans under the Free Trade Agreement
(FTA) with foreigners.
Private home purchases by nationality and postal district
(Q4 2014)
While USA and UK nationals were more active in the
secondary market in Q4, purchases of those in the SEA region
were concentrated in the primary market in Q4 (Table 3). For
these buyers, 28 out of 37 units purchased in the quarter were
bought directly from developers.
40
30
16
20
18
10
5
14
7
4
1
USA
United Kingdom
0
District 1
Prime districts (9, 10 and 11)
19
SEA*
Non-prime districts
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
*These countries include Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos,
Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
Figure 9
Bulk of purchases by SEA buyers in District 1
Unlike the USA and UK nationals, slightly more than half of
purchases by other nationalities in SEA were concentrated in
District 1, where Marina One Residences is located. On the
other hand, purchases by USA and UK nationals were more
dispersed across the different postal districts. While buyers
from USA purchased 7 units in District 1 in Q4, a larger
proportion of their purchases were scattered around the island
in the non-prime districts.
Separately, it was also observed that the bulk, or 70%, of
American purchasers in Q4 were foreigners while only 30%
held PR status. In contrast, for both English and other SEA
buyers, a larger proportion purchases were made by
individuals who were PRs (Figure 9).
Proportion of purchases by nationality and residential
status (Q4 2014)
100%
32%
80%
60%
40%
20%
46%
70%
68%
54%
30%
0%
USA
Singapore PR
UK
SEA*
Foreigner
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
*These countries include Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos,
Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
Table 3
Private home purchases by other nationalities in (Q4 2014)
USA
UK
SEA
Region*
Primary
13
6
28
Secondary
17
13
9
Total
30
19
37
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
*These countries include Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos,
Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
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5
By buyer address
In Q4, the proportion of purchases by buyers with HDB
addresses declined by 1.0 percentage-point q-o-q to 43% to
comprise 1,217 units. This was the lowest quarterly proportion
recorded for the year. About 55% (674 units) of these
transactions were in the primary market, while the remaining
45% (543 units) were secondary sales.
Increased transactions in the secondary market in H2 however
were limited to only a few areas across Singapore. In
particular, postal districts, 5, 12, 15, 19 and 20 saw more
secondary sales in the second half of the year.
Table 4
Private home purchases by buyer address (2014)
Buyers with HDB addresses less active in the
primary market in H2
Primary
Secondary
Primary
Secondary
H1 2014
2,315
(71%)
941
(29%)
1,656
(50%)
1,677
(50%)
H2 2014
1,368
(56%)
1,083
(44%)
1,358
(43%)
1,808
(57%)
2014
3,683
(65%)
2,024
(35%)
3,014
(46%)
3,485
(54%)
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
Figure 10
Primary market transactions of major launches in 2014
Launch period: Q1 14
Some postal districts saw increased secondary in
market activity in H2
Even though buying sentiment remained weak throughout the
year, private home purchases in the secondary market
increased by 10.4% to 2,891 units in H2 2014. Under the slow
market conditions, the increased number of transactions
suggests that sellers are willing to take bigger discounts to
move their properties. It could also be a result of the financing
difficulties from the lower achievable monthly rents which had
forced owners to sell off their properties. According to DTZ
Research, islandwide private home rents fell by up to 10% in
2014. This was largely due to the increased competition from
new housing completions in the year.
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60%
65%
Q2 14
41%
59%
68%
32%
Q3 14
86%
14%
Marina One
Residences
35%
Q4 14
Buyers with HDB address
Buyers with private address
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
*Seventy Saint Patrick’s was launched for sale in Q3 2014, but the caveats for
transactions were only recorded in Q4 2014
Figure 11
Breakdown of private home purchases by buyer address
40,000
80%
30,000
60%
20,000
40%
10,000
20%
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
For the whole of 2014, the proportion of buyers with HDB
addresses increased to 47% (Figure 11). This is 3.0%
percentage-points higher than the proportion recorded 2013
and is also the highest share by buyers with HDB addresses
since 2003. The overall number of purchases by buyers with
HDB addresses was largely driven by the 2,315 primary market
sales registered in the first half of 2014.
67%
40%
*Seventy Saint
Patrick's
83%
33%
Highline
Residences
66%
17%
Lakeville
34%
Commonwealth
Towers
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Coco Palms
In contrast, at least 90% of all units sold at Coco Palms,
Commonwealth Towers, Lakeville, The Panorama, The
Santorini and [email protected] were below $1.5m. These
developments are all located in suburban areas and had
between 60% and 83% of purchases stem from buyers with
HDB addresses (Figure 10).
Type of
sale
The Santorini
Indeed for most of the major launches in H2, such as Seventy
Saint Patrick’s and Marina One Residences, the majority of
new sales were by buyers with private addresses while buyers
with HDB addresses had a lower share. About 70% to 90% of
the units sold at Marina One Residences and Seventy Saint
Patrick’s were transacted above $1.5m.
Buyers with private
addresses
The Panorama
Buyers with HDB addresses are typically more active in the
primary market. However, with the decline in new residential
launches in Q4, buyers with HDB addresses had a smaller
proportion of their purchases stem from the primary market.
Furthermore, as a large proportion of buyers with HDB
addresses tend to be HDB upgraders – these buyers are more
inclined to purchase from the mass market segment. However,
the bulk of new launches towards the end of 2014 were
targeted at the mid- to high-end bracket. As a result, the
proportion of primary market purchases by buyers with HDB
addresses declined by 15.0 percentage-points in H2 to
comprise only 56% of their transactions (Table 4).
Buyers with HDB
addresses
0%
Purchasers with HDB addresses
Purchasers with private addresses
% purchasers with HDB addresses (RHS)
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
Property Times
6
This corresponded with the large number of new residential
housing completions which could have created some
excitement in surrounding developments. In 2014, 519 units
(District 5), 646 units (District 12), 2,185 units (District 15),
1,467 units (District 19) and 333 units (District 20) had been
completed.
For the above postal districts, the bulk of secondary sale
purchases were by buyers with private home addresses, while
buyers with HDB addresses held a smaller share. In fact for
almost all the separate postal districts, the increase in
secondary sales transaction in H2 was largely attributable to an
increase in purchases by buyers with private addresses (Figure
12).
There were few districts where secondary sale transactions fell
noticeably in the second half of 2014. These included districts
23, 26 and 1 (Figure 13).
Figure 12
Increase in secondary sale transactions in H2 2014
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
139
82
54
28
67
38
35
34
46
66
47
H1
H2
H1
H2
H1
District 20 District 12
159
229
248
108
58
H2
District 5
HDB addressee
106
131
H1
H2
87
107
H1
H2
District 19 District 15
Private addressee
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
Figure 13
Decrease in secondary sale transactions by postal district
Outlook
178
The overall number of transactions in 2014 fell to a new 10year low with a total of 12,206 purchases for the year. Not only
have the effects of the earlier cooling measures and the TDSR
framework slowed down buying activity, but the falling prices
have also kept buyers waiting on the sidelines until conditions
appear more sanguine. According to a basket of completed
properties tracked by DTZ Research, private resale prices
have fallen by up to 10% in the year.
The global economic outlook for 2015 remains fragile. The
slowdown in growth in China will directly affect markets around
the world and the sovereign debt issues in Europe continue to
present risk to the global economy. Furthermore, up to
February 2015, the three-month SIBOR rose to 0.734%, almost
double the rate a year ago. Coupled with the strengthening US
dollar and higher interest rates, this could heavily affect
mortgage-financing abilities of buyers.
District 23
155
39
District 26
24
33
District 1
23
H1 2014
H2 2014
Source: URA REALIS, 17 February, DTZ Research
th
Nevertheless, with Singapore’s 50 birthday celebration in
2015, and the possibility of General Elections being called by
the end of the year, there are hopes and speculation that some
of the cooling measures in place on the private residential
market may be tweaked in H2 2015. Therefore, until
circumstances become more certain, the market is likely to
remain subdued.
At the same time however, the volume of mortgagee sales is
expected to increase, especially in view of the weak rental
market that would affect a borrower’s ability to finance their
residential property.
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7
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