[email protected] Individual investment decisions should be made on the basis of each investor’s financial condition, suitability and risk tolerance. The information in this document should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from a qualified RIA. Material provided in this document is for information purposes, and does not constitute a recommendation for the purchase or sale of securities. All securities investments carry risk, including a risk of loss of principal. Investments may be volatile and can involve the loss of principal, including all of the investment. Past investment performance is no guarantee of future returns. S&P 500: Closing the week out strongly to the upside, the S&P 500 is slightly extended, but should certainly not be shorted as new highs are still being made. While no high time frame entries exist Monday for either ES, or SPY, one can watch the 2058 area for support. Long trades in equities should continue to be the best bet. VIX: The VIX went into its downtrend at the beginning of February, and broke down further during the past week. Sellers of the VIX will likely show up between 15.66 and 16.34. $DXY (Dollar): Not much has changed in the dollar since midJanuary or so. The trend is still up, and there is likely still upside left to be had once the trading range is broken, which might happen this week. Given the inverse correlation of DXY, and the greater weight of the EUR compared to other currencies, short trades in the EURUSD are more likely to work than longs. 10 Yr Note Futures: The 10 yr. futures continue to be weak, but essentially went sideways for the week of 2/16/15. There is little upside potential in the near term, which suggests we’ll continue to see an uptick in rates. That being said, TLT could see a bounce this week, or the following. Gold Futures: Ugly is the best way to describe the gold chart. Given the down trend shorts are still the way to go, but finding low risk entry points has proven to be a challenge. Hopefully new entries will emerge next week. WTI Crude: There have been sellers of crude between $53.88 and $56.54. While crude should continue to stabilize in February, the upside is somewhat limited until price gets above $56.54. There are long opportunities showing up in the oil service sector stocks. Equity Trades to Watch Symbol Long/Short TSM Long Entry Level $23.94 $23.47 Stop 02/23/15 Daily Trend $23.41 Up Potential Holding Period Comments > 5 days An entry during the week of 2/23 could lead to upside to $26.30 or so. XLNX Short $42.69 $43.26 $43.32 Sideways <2 days The daily trend is gaining upward momentum; likely to stall the week of 2/23 due to weekly down trend. SE Long $35.03 $34.23 $34.17 Sideways >3 days Daily trend turning up; weekly momentum also turning up. UGI Long $34.25 $33.34 $33.29 Down >5 days Daily down trend likely to change. GLNG Long $29.12 $27.73 $27.67 Down >3 days Daily down trend likely to change. RAX Long $48.18 $47.89 $47.83 Up >3 days Strong uptrend; somewhat of a high risk trade as there are entry levels that exist lower. SPY Long $207.12 $204.78 $204.52 Up >5 days Needing a small pull back to join the up trend. >5 days Extended down trend on the daily; likely to get a trend change, and or, a good bounce from the range listed. >3 days Good uptrend; possible sellers overhead between $49.27 and $51.72. AXP WMB Long Long $76.11 $75.01 $46.88 $45.79 $75.04 Down $45.73 Up Entry Level: The entry level listed is a range in which possible entries could hypothetically be taken. Stops: An effective risk management technique is to adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade profit has reached 2 times the amount risked. Targets: An effective profit target is to take at least some profit at 2 times the amount risked. Additional targets may be utilized.
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