A Sharekhan currency research newsletter January 12, 2015 Punter’s Call USD-INR: Dominated by bears MACD (0.14542) USD-INR has fallen sharply in the last few sessions. It has broken the key daily moving averages (DMAs). The currency pair has also fallen below the medium-term rising trendline. The short-term momentum indicators are in line with the fall. All these observations suggest that the bears are having an upper hand. Key levels on the downside will be Rs61.76– 61.36. On the other hand, the level of Rs62.70 will act as a key resistance on the closing basis. 0.0 -0.5 USDINR - INDIAN RUPEE (62.4900, 62.5100, 62.2900, 62.3450, -0.32500) 64.5 64.0 63.5 63.0 62.5 62.0 61.5 61.0 60.5 60.0 59.5 59.0 58.5 58.0 57.5 April View Down Reversal Target 62.70 61.76/61.36 May June GBP-INR: Under pressure GBP-INR recently faced resistance near the key weekly moving averages (WMAs). From thereon it has fallen sharply. It has broken the swing low of Rs96.25 and has reached lower end of the falling channel. Below Rs93.99, the GBP-INR can fall down till Rs93.18, ie lower end of the medium-term falling channel and Rs92.62, ie the junction of 40-monthly exponential moving average (MEMA) and monthly lower Bollinger band. On the flip side, the level of Rs96 will act as a strong resistance on closing basis. July Augus t Septem ber Novem ber 2015 February KST (-1.71498) 10 5 0 -5 GBPINR (96.9990, 97.0360, 93.9960, 94.5030, -2.45800) 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 View Down Reversal Target 96 93.18/92.62 85 O N D 2013 A M J J A S O N D 2014 M A M J J A S O N D 2015 M A M J J A sharekhan Currency Eagle Eye EUR-INR: Drills through the channel MACD (-0.70101) 2.0 1.5 EUR-INR has been falling for the last several months. The entire fall is unfolding in a channelised manner. It recently faced resistance near the upper end of the channel. Since then it has been cracking down. It has broken the lower end of the channel in the last week. The channel line, which is near Rs74.90 will now act as a crucial hurdle on a closing basis. On the downside, Rs72 will be the level to watch out for. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 EURINR (73.8940, 74.0200, 73.3240, 73.8100, -0.09000) 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 85 84 83 82 81 80 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 71 View Down Reversal Target 74.90 72 un Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 JPY-INR: Bullish potential Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 M 70 Relative Strength Index (34.8804) 60 JPY-INR had reached near the lower end of the multimonth falling channel as well as near the extended Fibonacci target. Near those levels, bulls rushed in to provide support. Consequently, the currency pair formed a bullish outside bar on the weekly chart. Thus, the low of Rs0.5079 will act as a crucial support. From thereon the currency pair has entered a pullback mode; however the pullback is breaking up into lower degree waves. The weekly momentum indicator is also recovering from the oversold territory. The key levels on the upside will be Rs0.5507–0.5604. 50 40 30 20 JPYINR (0.52500, 0.53840, 0.52050, 0.52590, +0.00090) 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.64 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.0% 0.58 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.54 100.0% 0.53 0.52 0.51 161.8% 0.50 0.49 N View Up Reversal 0.5079 D 2013 A M J J A S O N D 2014 M A M J J A S O N D 2015 M A M J J A S O Target 0.5507/0.5604 Home Visit us at www.sharekhan.com For Private Circulation only REGISTRATION DETAILS Regd Add: Sharekhan Limited, 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai – 400042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. Fax: 67481899; E-mail: [email protected]; Website: www.sharekhan.com; CIN: U99999MH1995PLC087498. 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