2012 2013 2014 2015

Energy Market Update
November 6, 2014
Premier Energy Group, LLC / 1275 Bound Brook Rd, Suite 6, Middlesex, NJ 08846 / Fax: 732-302-0606
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Avg.
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Natural Gas Futures Prices ($/dth)
NYMEX Settle on November 5, 2014
2012
2013
2014
2015
3.084 $ 3.354 $ 4.407 $
4.287
2.678 $ 3.226 $ 5.557 $
4.253
2.446 $ 3.427 $ 4.855 $
4.167
2.191 $ 3.976 $ 4.584 $
3.810
2.036 $ 4.152 $ 4.795 $
3.780
2.429 $ 4.148 $ 4.619 $
3.801
2.774 $ 3.707 $ 4.400 $
3.827
3.010 $ 3.459 $ 3.808 $
3.839
2.634 $ 3.567 $ 3.957 $
3.835
3.023 $ 3.498 $ 3.984 $
3.864
3.471 $ 3.496 $ 3.728 $
3.949
3.696 $ 3.818 $ 4.194 $
4.104
2.789 $ 3.652 $ 4.407 $
3.960
PSEG 2015 Transmission Rate Increase
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2016
4.208
4.174
4.101
3.847
3.842
3.867
3.894
3.904
3.889
3.914
3.984
4.130
3.980
PSEG has filed their 2015 Network Integrated Transmission Service (NITS) Rate. The rate is
increasing from $70,697/MW-Year to $96,521/MW-Year. The impact on customers will
depend on the assigned transmission capacity and load profile. Most customers can expect
an increase of $0.003/kwh - $0.007/kwh.
* PSE&G 2013 NITS Rate: $53,953 per MW-year ($147.82/MW-day)
* PSE&G 2014 NITS Rate: $70,697 per MW-year ($193.69/MW-day)
* PSE&G 2015 NITS Rate: $96,521 per MW-year ($264.44/MW-day) filed but not yet approved
Natural Gas - NYMEX 12-month futures strip ($/dth)
$6
$4
Note : Prices in red italics are historical - NYMEX contract expired.
$2
11/1/14
9/1/14
7/1/14
5/1/14
3/1/14
1/1/14
11/1/13
9/1/13
7/1/13
5/1/13
3/1/13
1/1/13
11/1/12
9/1/12
7/1/12
5/1/12
3/1/12
$0
1/1/12
Natural Gas NYMEX Strip Prices ($/dth)
3-month strip
$4.245
6-month strip
$4.082
12-month strip
$3.967
18-month strip
$3.993
24-month strip
$3.972
Apr15-Oct15
$3.822
Nov14-Mar15
$4.126
4.062
4.136
Natural Gas Storage (bcf) week ending 10/31/14
This week
91 bcf
3,571 bcf
Last week
87 bcf
3,480 bcf
This week last year
35 bcf
3,809 bcf
5-Year Average
42 bcf
3,832 bcf
Electricity - Prompt Month On-Peak Prices ($/mwh)
PJM West
NY ISO
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
Note : Negative number denotes withdrawal
Fuel Prices - prompt month NYMEX
Natural Gas
$ 4.194 /dth
$
4.19
Crude Oil
$ 78.68 /barrel
$
13.48
#2 Heating Oil
$ 2.439 /gallon
$
17.54
NY Harbor Gasoline $ 2.087 /gallon
$
16.05
Crude Oil - Natural Gas Spread:
$
9.28
Financial Indicators
Dow Jones Industrial Average
NASDAQ
S&P 500
Euro - U.S. Dollar ($)
U.S. Federal Reserve Rate (%)
/mmbtu
/mmbtu
/mmbtu
/mmbtu
17,484.53
4,620.72
2,023.57
1.2402
0.25%
Weather (6-10 day forecast)
Expect above-average temperatures in the Western U.S. Below-normal
temperatures will be seen in the Central and Eastern areas of the U.S.
A small band of normal temperatures will occur in a few areas of the
Mountain region.
HEATING DEGREE DAYS - Newark, NJ
H.D.D.s
2014-2015 (Oct-May) Season to Date
255
2013/14 (Oct-May of prior year)
280
NORMAL (30-year average) - Season to Date
340
11/1/14
9/1/14
7/1/14
5/1/14
3/1/14
1/1/14
11/1/13
9/1/13
7/1/13
5/1/13
3/1/13
1/1/13
11/1/12
9/1/12
7/1/12
5/1/12
3/1/12
1/1/12
$0
Gas Daily Midpoint - Cash Prices ($/dth) - flow date 11/6/14
Henry Hub
$
3.805
Transco Zone 6 - NY
$
3.315
Transco Zone 6 - non NY
$
3.575
Tetco Zone M3
$
3.375
Market Outlook
The Natural Gas 12- and 24-month NYMEX strip prices jumped from last week, settling
yesterday at $3.967/dth (up 6.75%) and $3.972/dth (up 4.36%).
Natural gas prices have risen over the past week in large part due to changes in the long- term
forecast which have many concerned about another severe winter. The higher gas prices are
translating to increased electric rates as well.
The EIA reported a Natural Gas storage injection of 91 bcf which was higher than expectations
of 83-87 bcf. The storage inventory of 3,571 bcf is now 238 bcf behind last year and 261 bcf
behind the 5-year average.
Richard J. Albanese
Laurie A. Albee
Leigh-Ann Barrett
Joanne Comune
Nick Brown
Emmett Capanna
Scott K. Fawcett
Richard A. Haynal
Thomas Pennimpede
Patricia Prugh
Joseph L. Santo
Sara Shapiro
Charles S. Wilk
732-302-0601ext 601
[email protected]
732-302-0601ext 614
[email protected]
732-302-0601ext 607
lbarrett[email protected]
732-302-0601ext 612
[email protected]
732-302-0601ext 611
[email protected]
732-302-0601ext 610
[email protected]
732-302-0601ext 608
[email protected]
732-302-0601ext 602
[email protected]
732-302-0601ext 605
[email protected]
732-302-0601ext 609
[email protected]
732-302-0601ext 603
[email protected]
732-302-0601ext 613
[email protected]
732-302-0601ext 604
[email protected]
This information is provided for informational purposes only. Premier Energy Group, LLC makes no representation or warranty regarding the accuracy or completeness of any data provided herein.
Any recommendations or opinions provided by Premier Energy Group, LLC are not to be considered guarantees, at this time or in the future. This document may not be reproduced, retransmitted or
redistributed without the prior written consent of Premier Energy Group, LLC.