HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ Press Release Embargoed until: 09:30 (Dubai), 4 November 2014 HSBC UAE PMI™ UAE PMI surges to new record high in October Summary HSBC PMITM data for the non-oil private sector economy of the United Arab Emirates signalled the strongest improvement in business conditions in the survey’s five-year history in October. Output, new business, purchasing activity and employment all rose at survey-record rates, while average wages/salaries increased at the strongest pace since the series began in August 2009. Average purchase prices rose at the fastest rate in just over two-and-a-half years. New export business bucked the wider trend in new work, registering the slowest expansion since January – albeit a strong overall pace nonetheless. The survey’s headline figure is the HSBC UAE Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI) – a composite indicator designed to give a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the non-oil private sector economy. It is derived from indicators for new orders, output, employment, suppliers’ delivery times and stocks of purchases. Readings above 50.0 indicate an overall improvement in business conditions, below 50.0 an overall deterioration. Inflationary pressures built up in October amid greater demand for inputs and staff. Salary/wage inflation accelerated for the fifth successive month, to the fastest recorded in the survey history. Meanwhile, average purchase prices rose at the fastest rate since March 2012. Output prices rose at the fastest rate since mid2011. The increase followed a fractional decline in September and was linked to higher costs and stronger demand. Comment Commenting on the UAE PMI™ survey, Simon Williams, Chief Economist for Middle East & North Africa at HSBC said: “The pick up in prices pressures captured in this month's data is of concern but the dominant story is one of a UAE economy in full growth mode. The performance is all the more impressive given the decline in oil prices over the same period, and the continued downturn in emerging markets elsewhere”. The PMI rose sharply to 61.2 in October, from 57.6 in September, signalling a rapid improvement in business conditions at non-oil private sector firms. The latest figure was the highest since the survey started in August 2009, and the month-on-month gain since September was also a survey record. Four of the PMI’s five components posted record highs in October, the exception being suppliers’ delivery times. Key points Six survey indicators hit record highs, including Business activity at non-oil private sector firms in the UAE rose at the fastest pace in the survey history in October. This mirrored a record rise in the level of incoming new business, with survey respondents reporting strong underlying demand and greater marketing efforts. New export business also rose at a marked pace, albeit the weakest registered since January. Historical Overview Record gains in new work imparted further pressure on operating capacity in October. Backlogs of work rose for the sixth consecutive month, and at the third-fastest rate in the survey history. This was despite a series-record rise in non-oil private sector employment during the month. Rising business requirements and a positive outlook led firms to raise purchases of new inputs at the fastest rate in the survey history in October. This also generated a record expansion in stocks of purchases. Suppliers’ delivery times continued to improve despite greater pressure on capacity. output, new orders and employment Slower expansion in new export business Salary inflation at series-record high HSBC United Arab Emirates PMI 50 = no change on previous month, S.Adj. Increasing rate of growth 65 60 55 50 Increasing rate of contraction 45 2010 Sources: Markit, HSBC 2011 2012 2013 2014 For further information, please contact: HSBC Simon Williams, Chief Economist, HSBC Middle East & North Africa Ahmad Othman Media Relations Telephone +971-4-423-6925 Email [email protected] Tel: +971 4 423 5628 Email [email protected] Markit Amy Brownbill, Economist Telephone +44-1491-461-063 Email [email protected] Joanna Vickers, Corporate Communications Telephone +44-20-7260-2234 Email [email protected] Notes to Editors: The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in approximately 400 private sector companies, which have been carefully selected to accurately represent the true structure of the United Arab Emirates economy, including manufacturing, services, construction and retail. The panel is stratified by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) group, based on industry contribution to GDP. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month based on data collected mid-month. For each of the indicators the ‘Report’ shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of higher/better responses and lower/worse responses, and the ‘diffusion’ index. This index is the sum of the positive responses plus a half of those responding ‘the same’. The Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) is a composite index based on five of the individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders - 0.3, Output - 0.25, Employment - 0.2, Suppliers’ Delivery Times - 0.15, Stock of Items Purchased - 0.1, with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in that variable, below 50 an overall decrease. Markit do not revise underlying survey data after first publication, but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised from time to time as appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series. Historical data relating to the underlying (unadjusted) numbers, first published seasonally adjusted series and subsequently revised data are available to subscribers from Markit. Please contact [email protected] HSBC: HSBC is one of the world’s largest banking and financial services organisations. 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About Markit: Markit is a leading global diversified provider of financial information services. We provide products that enhance transparency, reduce risk and improve operational efficiency. Our customers include banks, hedge funds, asset managers, central banks, regulators, auditors, fund administrators and insurance companies. Founded in 2003, we employ over 3,000 people in 10 countries. Markit shares are listed on NASDAQ under the symbol “MRKT”. For more information, please see www.markit.com About PMIs: Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) surveys are now available for 32 countries and also for key regions including the Eurozone. They are the most closely-watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to www.markit.com/economics The intellectual property rights to the HSBC UAE PMI™ provided herein are owned by or licensed to Markit Economics Limited. Any unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying, distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without Markit’s prior consent. Markit shall not have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating to the content or information (“data”) contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall Markit be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the data. Purchasing Managers' Index™ and PMI™ are either registered trade marks of Markit Economics Limited or licensed to Markit Economics Limited. HSBC use the above marks under license. Markit is a registered trade mark of Markit Group Limited.
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