Document 414228

Darren Potter – Race Assessments Please note: Product explanation & Betting Plan located on final page. Track Comment: Rail goes out 4 metres for Oaks Day with a benign weather forecast. The track should play close to fair however the bigger the field the more chance of horses getting pushed into the fast lane out in the middle (probably worth a length or two particularly if you don’t have to work to get to it). Race 1 Selections 10 No Trainer Michael Moroney Damien Williams Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra Heath Conners Danny O'Brien Sylvia Thompson Greg Eurell Matt Laurie Michael Moroney Robert Smerdon Pat Hyland David Hayes & Tom Dabernig Jockey Jake Noonan Dwayne Dunn Luke Oliver John McArdle Michael Cornish & Donna Gaskin Robbie Laing Horse 1 ASADAUSKAITE (NZ) 2 BELLA MOLLIE 3 Scr 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 MISS MAGGIEBEEL REFER TEAR GAS (NZ) ALLELU NAVAJO RUN (NZ) GAILY MILL POSTNTHYME (NZ) UNGRATEFUL ELLEN ARIANNE (NZ) Scr 14 ZOE’S GIFT KANSAS SUNFLOWER 15 (NZ) 16 Scr 17 KAZEMI (NZ) 18 MOULIN 19 FALAMONTE (NZ) 20 Scr Assessed Odds 14 16 Damian Lane Chris Symons Chad Schofield Michael Rodd Kerrin McEvoy Stephen Baster James McDonald Damien Oliver Dean Yendall 12 7 16 34 21 10 5 16 26 Michael Walker 51 Tommy Berry Jamie Mott 21 51 Jarrod Todd Vlad Duric 67 301 Map: Messy race with a messy map. Zoe’s Gift & Bella Mollie most likely clear of Navajo Run, Arrianne, Refer & Gaily Mill. Postnthyme next getting a nice midfield trail at an even tempo. Race Overview: Weak race for 3 & 4yo F&M full of hollow form. Positive: Postnthyme: She’s a lightly raced 4yo mare. She resumed with a good enough run at Cranbourne in an OK race. She’s got a couple of short SP’s as a 3yo against older mares in Sydney and her 1st up run indicated that she could be ready to produce. Market Comment: Not an inspiring race but not ruling out some lively betting fluctuations. Race 2 Selections 4-­‐11 No Horse Scr PYRROLIC Scr SAIGON TEA (NZ) EVANGELIST (GB) QUICK SNITZEL JESSY BELLE Trainer Michael Kent Chris Waller Tony McEvoy Peter G Moody Luke Oliver MAGNAPAL WHAT’S IN A NAME Scr BY THE GRACE Scr HONEY STEEL’S GOLD SMASHING DOUBT TIME TO TEST YOU ROCK PRESENT ARMS (NZ) HARARE Scr Terry & Karina O'Sullivan Jim Smith Andrew Noblet David Hayes & Tom Dabernig Leon & Troy Corstens Tony McEvoy Leon & Troy Corstens Michael Moroney Shea Eden Jockey Brad Rawiller Tommy Berry Kerrin McEvoy Luke Nolen Chris Symons Ms Nikita Beriman Glen Boss Damien Oliver 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Craig Williams Vlad Duric Tim Clark James McDonald Jake Noonan Assessed Odds 7 3.8 10 21 11 51 101 5.5 34 34 21 67 34 151 Map: Evangalist looks the likely leader with Jessy Belle not far away clear of By The Grace. There doesn’t appear much pressure on paper and few of these are likely to be caught wide – wouldn’t be surprised to see Pyrrolic pushing on and possibly Smashing Doubt also. Tempo no better than even. Positive: None. Neutral: Saigon Tea: She’s a consistent C.Waller trained mare coming off a solid run behind Grand Marshal in Sydney. She’s 3rd up off a freshen up and will be in the finish provided T.Berry doesn’t get too far off the leaders. By The Grace: He’s a limited horse but he’ll be suited by the tempo with D.Oliver giving him every chance. Market Comment: I’m expecting Saigon Tea to start shorter than her current $7. Race 3 No Horse 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Trainer Peter Morgan & Craig ELOPING Widdison TAWTEEN David Hayes & Tom Dabernig SULTRY FEELING Bart & James Cummings UNEQUIVOCAL Noel Mayfield-­‐Smith Scr DUAL STAR Paul Messara AEROBAR Gerald Ryan SNIP SPUR Peter & Paul Snowden ONEMOREZETA Kris Lees I AM GYPSY Gordon Richards TOP DOLLY Tom Hughes PUZZLE Heath Conners CHIAVARI Nick Harnett Scr FANTASY EIGHT Wendy Kelly INFERENTIAL Robbie Griffiths WHITE HOUSE LADY Tony Noonan SNAKE CHARMER Danny O'Brien Scr Selections 3-­‐9-­‐10 Jockey Damian Lane Stephen Baster Hugh Bowman Tim Clark Craig Williams James McDonald Nicholas Hall Damien Oliver Maija Vance Brian Werner Chris Symons Mark Zahra Vlad Duric Ryan Maloney Jake Noonan James Winks Assessed Odds 8 7 5.5 26 26 34 34 6.5 9 101 101 34 16 201 67 51 Map: Tawteen leads on the inside, Onemorezeta out in the middle, with I Am Gypsy & Eloping out wider at a tempo a couple of lengths stronger than even. Race Overview: Big team of 3yof down the straight where the best performed runners look disadvantaged. Positive: Sultry Feeling: She came down from Sydney with solid enough form and ran a good race behind Eloping at Caulfield despite losing the plot on the corner. I think she’ll be suited down the straight and be in the finish at good odds. Onemorezeta: She resumed in her 2nd prep with a fast win at MWBK despite starting $15. She then came to town and put a hole in an OK field at WFarm. She’s fast and a bit untapped, not sure how she’ll handle the straight but I want her on my side at good odds. I Am Gypsy: This filly had done absolutely nothing in 6 runs prior to producing an outstanding effort last start at Morphettville. At $31 I want her on my side. Negative: Tawteen & Eloping: They’re both fast fillies at their best kicking off a bend and I’m prepared to oppose them down the straight. Market Comment: Hard market to read, I expect layers & backers for the top two. Race 4 Selections 2-­‐5-­‐7 No Horse LADY ECHELON BEAUTY’S BEAST (NZ) Scr TIME TO PLUNDER SLATE ON EDGE SPECTER SECRET TOY BIZNESS DASILVA EMBOLDENED SMOKEN CASH FANTOME GRIS CONSOLING AMY WAITAHA PROPHECY CREAMERY LANE WILSCOT Trainer Natalie McCall Jockey Mark Zahra Danny O'Brien Liam Birchley Brett Thompson Anthony Freedman John & Chris Ledger Mark Riley Jim Cerchi (Jnr) Brian Cox Leon & Troy Corstens Gwenda Johnstone Hugh Bowman Craig Williams Dwayne Dunn Jim Cassidy Damian Lane Stephen Baster James Winks Luke Nolen Damien Oliver Chris Symons 4 12 5 21 7 34 101 21 34 15 Geoff Duryea Andrew Benyan Brian Cox Dean Yendall Steven King James McDonald 101 101 151 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Assessed Odds 15 Map: Smoken Cash, Beauty’s Beast and Slate On Edge to sort out the front clear of Creamery Lane & Secret Toy Bizzness at a couple of lengths stronger than even. Race Overview: Greys at the 1400m. Positive: None. Neutral: Beauty’s Beast: He’s clearly the best horse in the race but has struggled in his 2 runs the Melbourne way. He’ll be better suited at Flem with H.Bowman going back on. Slate On Edge: He’s a very honest horse, he’ll get himself up on-­‐pace and run a rock solid race again. Secret Toy Bizness: He came off a string of duck eggs to produce a good effort at MV last start. He usually holds his form once he finds it and I want him on my side at big odds. Negative: Fantome Gris: He’s not much of a horse and he always gets too far back. Market Comment: Early market looks about right. Race 5 No Horse 1 EASY DRAMA 2 PETROLOGY 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TASHBEEH BEAU’S MY BOY HERO I AM PROACTIVE (NZ) CHILL PARTY SAN CARLOS (NZ) KODINHI (NZ) UPHAM (NZ) SPUR ON GOLD SINGULARITY Selections 10-­‐5 Trainer Peter G Moody David Hayes & Tom Dabernig David Hayes & Tom Dabernig Jon O'Connor Chris Waller Peter & Paul Snowden Tom Hughes Dan O'Sullivan Anthony Freedman Peter G Moody Pat Carey Robbie Griffiths Jockey Luke Nolen Assessed Odds 16 Dwayne Dunn 11 Kerrin McEvoy Mark Zahra Hugh Bowman Jim Cassidy Brian Werner Ryan Maloney Craig Williams Ms Linda Meech Damian Lane Damien Oliver 26 26 4 9 26 67 26 3.8 101 21 Map: Beau’s My Boy and Tashbeeh look most likely with Proactive boxseat inside Kodinhi. Sun Carlos and Upham next at an even tempo. Race Overview: Steady team of 3yo’s at the 1800m. Positive: Upham: Looked very good busting up a team of maiden’s at his 2nd career start at Mornington. The time was good and the subsequent form solid; he’s top pick. Neutral: Hero I Am: Comes down from Sydney for C.Waller. He’s just a horse but is better than his last start flop (don’t think he handled the 7 day back up). Waller runners often bounce back off a below par run. Negative: Proactive: I don’t like opposing the Snowden stable but this horse has no form. Market Comment: Expecting support for Hero I Am. Upham will trade strongly at around his current price. Race 6 No Horse 1 MIRACLES OF LIFE Selections 13-­‐4-­‐
15 Assessed Odds 8 Trainer Jockey Peter & Paul Snowden Hugh Bowman David Hayes & Tom 2 GREGERS Dabernig Craig Williams 14 3 REBEL BRIDE Leon & Dean Wells Dwayne Dunn 67 4 SHAMAL WIND Robert Smerdon Nicholas Hall 6.5 5 BOUNDING Ken & Bev Kelso Mark Du Plessis 10 6 SPIRITS DANCE Peter G Moody Chad Schofield 12 7 LILLIBURLERO David Payne Tim Clark 18 8 MINAJ (NZ) Anthony Freedman Mark Zahra 67 9 Scr 10 Scr 11 Scr 12 BRILLIANT BISC Peter G Moody Luke Nolen 34 13 CRADLE ME David Pfieffer Tommy Berry 6.5 14 KRISTY LEE Chris Waller Glen Boss 26 15 VAIN QUEEN John Sadler Damien Oliver 7 16 VAIN ATTRACTION Darren Weir Ben Melham 67 17 Scr 18 Scr 19 Scr 20 COUNTED (NZ) Colin & Cindy Alderson Michael Rodd 201 Map: I think they’ll race in an arrow formation with Minaj & Bounding at the pointy end with a bunch in behind including Gregers, Miracles Of Life, Vain Queen, Brilliant Bisc & Spirits Dance. Tempo about 3 lengths stronger than even. Race Overview: Big team of in form mares down the straight. Positive: None. Neutral: Cradle Me: The Messina Nymph was far too good for her at Caulf but the straight might suit her enough to ambush late. Shamal Wind: She’s struggling to win but comes back to the straight where she goes best. The race shape is ideal and she’s a strong winning chance. Vain Queen: She’s another that goes best down the straight and will be suited by the map. Race 7 Selections 16-­‐4-­‐
17-­‐15 No Horse Scr FLAMBERGE WE’RE GONNA ROCK STRAIGHT GOLD IT IS WRITTEN Scr Trainer Peter G Moody Jockey Brad Rawiller Tony Romeo Gary Moore Robbie Griffiths David Hayes & Tom Dabernig Stephen Brown Gordon Richards Darren Gauci Tommy Berry Matthew Allen 51 9 26 21 67 101 Dean Binaisse Stephen Baster Andrew Mallyon Dwayne Dunn Daniel Stackhouse John Hyam Nick Ryan Robbie Laing Tom Bourke David Pfieffer Peter G Moody Tony McEvoy Michael Kent Vlad Duric Hugh Bowman Mark Zahra Tegan Harrison James McDonald Luke Nolen Nicholas Hall 51 34 51 51 7 3.7 9 21 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 PAGO ROCK 8 CANALI 9 BELFAST BOY 10 FAB FEVOLA ESPRIT DE BULLET 11 (NZ) 12 POCKET ROCKETS 13 MR MAKE BELIEVE 14 ROCKY KING 15 ATMOSPHERICAL 16 ANGELS BEACH 17 RIFLEMAN 18 CONSORTING 19 Scr 20 Scr Assessed Odds 12 51 Map: Fab Fevola, Canali & Rocky King look the leading trio with Angels Beach, Atmospherical, Mr Make Believe & Flamberge in behind them. Tempo at least 3 lengths stronger than even. Race Overview: Another big field down the straight. Positive: Angels Beach: Not sure what happened to her at MV when we took the short odds but she bounced back to her best at Cranbourne. Her best is too good for them again. Neutral: Rifleman: He didn’t cope with the step up to 1400m and has had a freshen up for his return to his favoured 1000m. He’ll run well at good odds. Straight Gold: He ran well at Cranbourne 1st up (albeit well beaten by Angels Beach) prior to having no luck at all at MV. His best form in Hong Kong was down the straight and I’d prefer to have him on my side 3rd up down the straight. Market Comment: Angels Beach looks to have found her price and will trade strong at that level. Atmospherical looks well found. Race 8 Selections 8 No Trainer Robert Smerdon Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas Robert Smerdon Robert Smerdon Jockey Mark Zahra Horse 1 FONTEIN RUBY 2 GO INDY GO 3 CRAFTY 4 LUMOSTY THUNDER LADY 5 (NZ) 6 ABDUCTION 7 GOLCONDA 8 SET SQUARE 9 GAME OF FAME 10 IMPERIAL LASS (NZ) 11 YESTERJOY 12 HIPSTER GIRL John Sargent John O'Shea Robbie Laing Ciaron Maher Jason McLachlan Peter G Moody Clarry Conners Jason Warren Assessed Odds 10 Chad Schofield Jamie Spencer Nicholas Hall 8 7 8 Tommy Berry Kerrin McEvoy Vlad Duric Hugh Bowman Damien Oliver Luke Nolen Jim Cassidy Ben Melham 21 8 67 4.5 101 21 26 101 Map: On paper it looks like the Smerdon pair (Fontein Ruby & Lumosty) to take up the front clear of Set Square, Yesterjoy and Imperial Lass. If the jocks can get the leaders to settle the tempo will be soft. Race Overview: Team of in form 3yof at the 2500m. Positive: Set Square: She showed real staying talent at Ballarat prior to coming to town and franking her form. She looks a filly with genuine staying talent to me, she gets the perfect run and I think she’ll win. Neutral: Fontein Ruby: She’s been up for a long time and last Saturday might have finished her for the prep. However she had no hope facing the breeze at a strong tempo and she’s out to a price where I want her on my side. Market Comment: Good race and should get the betting to match with most of them attracting support. Race 9 No Horse Trainer ORIENTAPED Mitchell Freedman FULL HAND Brian Cox LEVERACTION Daryl Archard FLOATMYBOAT (NZ) Robbie Griffiths David Hayes & Tom ARCTIC SONG Dabernig GRIDHIAN Stuart Webb RED INCA Ray Besanko BEL SEAL Peter G Moody SADAQA Mick Cerchi AURUM SPIRIT Robbie Griffiths MILLIE’S MANN Jarrod McLean Scr ALARMIST Gary White 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Selections 10-­‐5-­‐9 Jockey Kerrin McEvoy Steven Arnold Chris Symons Damien Oliver Assessed Odds 51 67 16 8 Michael Walker Craig Williams Vlad Duric Luke Nolen Dwayne Dunn Ryan Maloney Damian Lane Tim Clark 6 16 8 10 9 5 67 151 Map: Leveraction leads Arctic Song with Orientaped crossing to keep them company. Sadaqa boxseat inside Floatmyboat with the tempo just above even. Race Overview: Weak race to finish the day, full of hollow form. Neutral: Aurum Star: Won a weak race 2nd up at Bendigo in average time. He does however have a previous 3rd up peak at Flem that wins this race. On that basis I’m prepared to have something on him at double figures. Sadaqa: Comes through the same race as Aurum Spirit. He’s 3rd up and if reproduces his most recent 1600m run (photo’d by The Cleaner) he’ll be in the finish also at double figures. Market Comment: Arctic Song looks short for a limited horse. Floatmyboat also looks well found for a horse with no 1600m form. Betting Plan Race 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 Selection Postnthyme Postnthyme (place) Saigon Tea By The Grace Sultry Feeling Onemorezeta I Am Gypsy Beauty's Beast Slate On Edge Secret Toy Bizness Hero I Am Upham Shamal Wind Vain Queen Cradle Me Straight Gold Angels Beach Rifleman Fontein Ruby Set Square Sadaqa Aurum Spirit TOTAL Price Bet 11 3.5 6.5 31 19 7.5 7.5 12 11 2 3 4 2 4 3 1 4 2 1 4 6 3 3 3 1.5 5 1.5 1.5 8.5 2 3 Return P&L 68 Product explanation: Prices are derived using my own scale of performance benchmarks applied to predicted race shape and race conditions – assessed market is set to 100%. I endeavour to isolate the key runners in each race and look at why they are over or under valued in the market. The horses tagged as positive have factors that I think the early market may have over looked and represent good value; the horses tagged as neutral are solid chances but found in the market; and the negative group are horses I’ve indentified as over valued. Interim Set: will be available on Friday to allow customers to lock in Friday corporate prices (as highlighted on the Betting Plan) if desired. The final set will be available after scr’s on Saturday morning. More often than not there will not be any significant difference between the interim set and the final set but at times weather and scr’s can lead to changes in race shape and track pattern. Betting Plan: Is focussed on the horses in the positive & neutral categories and based on a modified Kelly method using assessed prices, the early market and expected raceday trading to calculate suggested units.