INTRODUCTION TO EARNED SCHEDULE Walt Lipke

UT Dallas Project Management Symposium
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INTRODUCTION TO
EARNED SCHEDULE
Walt Lipke
PMI - Oklahoma City
+1 405 364 1594
[email protected]
www.earnedschedule.com
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Abstract
Earned Schedule is an extension to Earned Value
Management. The method provides considerable
capability to project managers for analysis of schedule
performance. From the time of the public’s first view of
Earned Schedule, its propagation and uptake around the
world has been extraordinary. This presentation will cover
the capabilities, affirmation, and resources available
supporting the practice.
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Overview
• Description
• Capabilities
• Affirmation
• Resources
• Computation
• Summary
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DESCRIPTION
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EVM Schedule Indicators
BAC
PV
CPI  EV
AC
SPI  EV
PV
CV
$$
Something’s
wrong !!
SV
AC
SV = EV – PV
EV
Time
PV = Planned Value
EV = Earned Value
AC = Actual Cost
BAC = Budget at Completion
PD = Planned Duration
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Earned Schedule Concept
$
Time Now
The idea is to determine the
time at which the EV accrued
should have occurred.
SVc
A
Σ PV
Σ EV
B
SVt
ES
1
2
3
4
5
6
AT
7
8
9
For the above example, ES = 5 months …that is the time associated with the
PMB at which PV equals the EV accrued at month 7.
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Earned Schedule Concept
• Formula
• ES = C + I
where: C = number of time increments for EV  PV
I = (EV – PVC) / (PVC+1 – PVC)
• Indicators
SV(t) = ES – AT
Schedule Performance Index: SPI(t) = ES / AT
• Schedule Variance:
•
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CAPABILITIES
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Capabilities
• Reliable indicators – SV(t) & SPI(t)
• True performance at completion
EVM schedule indicators fail for late performing projects
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Capabilities
• Forecasting
• Duration & completion date
• Always converges to actual result
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Capabilities
• Prediction
• To Complete Schedule Performance Index (TSPI)
• Answers question – “Is completion at (time) achievable?”
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Capabilities
• Critical Path
• Comparison of project and CP performance
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Capabilities
• Detail Analysis – Schedule Adherence
• Identifies out of sequence performance
• Isolates tasks - constraints/impediments & rework
• Facilitates calculations - EVR & rework forecast, EVeff
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Capabilities
• Discontinuous performance – stop work & downtime
• Accommodates and improves forecasting
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Capabilities
• Schedule Topology
• Longest path concept improves forecasts for parallel networks
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Affirmation
• Simple theory
• Initial prototype
• Independent confirmation
• Trials
• Testing
• Usage
• EVM Tools
• Educators/Researchers
• Awards
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Affirmation
• Simple theory
• Initial prototype
• Independent confirmation
• Trials
“The
retrospective analysis of ES using my own EVM projects’
• Testing
data,
… has confirmed with remarkable precision the accuracy of
• Usage
the ES concept and ES metrics …when compared to their historic
•EVM
EVM
Tools
counterparts.”
- Henderson (2003)
• Educators/Researchers
• Awards
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Affirmation
• Simple theory
• Initial prototype
“The results reveal that the earned schedule method
•outperforms,
Independent
confirmation
on the
average, all other forecasting methods.”
- Vanhoucke & Vandevoorde (2007)
• Trials
• Testing
• Usage
“This
research finds Earned Schedule to be a more timely
and
accurate
• EVM
Toolspredictor than Earned Value Management.”
• Educators/Researchers
• Awards
- Capt. Kevin Crumrine (2013)
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Affirmation
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Resources
• Earned Schedule Website
http://www.earnedschedule.com/
• Papers, Presentations, Calculators, Terminology
• PMI Practice Standard for Earned Value Management,
2nd Edition
• Earned Schedule book (English, Japanese, Portuguese)
• Print
• ePub (Nook & iPad)
• Kindle
• PDF
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Resources
• Read two articles …to begin
• “Schedule is Different”
• “Further Developments in Earned Schedule”
• Scan the Calculators …experiment with them
• ES Calculator (v1b & vs1b)
• ES-LP Calculator
• P-Factor Calculator
• Statistical Forecasting Calculator
• SA Index & Rework Calculator
• Prediction Analysis Calculator
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Contacts
Name
Country
Email
Walt Lipke
USA
[email protected]
Kym Henderson
Australia
[email protected]
Mario Vanhoucke
Belgium
[email protected]
Stephen
Vandevoorde
Belgium
[email protected]
fabricom-gdfsuez.com
Alex Davis
UK
[email protected]
Robert Van De
Velde
Canada
[email protected]
Kotaro Mizuno
Japan
[email protected]
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ES COMPUTATION
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ES Computation Example
SPI($) 
EV
SV($)  EV  PV
PV
SPI(t) 
PV
ES
SV(t)  ES - AT
AT
$
Projection of EV
onto PV
Time-Based
Schedule Indicators
EV
ES  All of M ay  Portion of June
ES  5 
EV - PV(M ay)
PV(June) - PV(M ay)
AT  7
J
F
M
A
M
J
Time
J
A
S
O
N
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ES Computation Example
Earned Schedule requires the:
EV
1) PMB;
SV($)  EV  PV
SPI($)and

PV
2) Accrued EV for calculation.
The equation is: ES = C + I
PV
ES
$
SPI(t) 
SV(t)  ES - AT
The first
step
ATis to determine C.
The value of C is found by
counting the number of the PMB
time increments for EV  PVn.
In this example the count is from
January through May.
C = 5 (months).
Projection of EV
onto PV
EV
ES  All of M ay  Portion of June
ES  5 
EV - PV(M ay)
PV(June) - PV(M ay)
AT  7
J
F
M
A
M
J
Time
J
A
S
O
N
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ES Computation Example
Thus far, ES = 5 + I (months).
EV
In theSPI($)
small
box at the lower
SV($)right,
 EV  PV

PV
is the equation for calculating I.
For the example, let
1) EV = 100ES
SPI(t) 
SV(t)  ES - AT
2) PV5 (May)AT= 90
3) PV6 (June) = 110.
$
Let’s calculate I:
I = (100 – 90) / (110 – 90) = 0.5
From ES (5.5 months) we can now
calculate the ES indicators:
SV(t) and SPI(t).
PV
The EV is reported at Actual Time
AT = 7, the end of July.
Projection of EV
onto PV
SV(t) = 5.5 – 7 = - 1.5 months
SPI(t) = 5.5 / 7 = 0.79
EV
ES = 5 + 0.5 = 5.5 (months)
ES  All of M ay  Portion of June
ES  5 
EV - PV(M ay)
PV(June) - PV(M ay)
AT  7
J
F
M
A
M
J
Time
J
A
S
O
N
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Earned Schedule Terminology
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SUMMARY
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Summary
• Derived from EVM data … only
• Provides time-based schedule indicators
• Indicators do not fail for late finish projects
• Application is scalable up/down, just as is EVM
• Schedule prediction is better than any other EVM method
presently used
• SPI(t) & SV(t) behave similarly to CPI & CV
• IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t) behaves similarly to
IEAC = BAC / CPI
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Summary
• Schedule performance analysis – much easier and
•
•
•
•
possibly better than “bottom-up” methods
Application is growing in both small and large projects
Practice recognized by PMI in EVM Practice Standard
Resource availability enhanced with ES website and
Wikipedia
Research indicates ES superior to other methods
Hopefully you are encouraged to – Give ES a try!
Thank You!!
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Management
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