U.S. Wheat Associates Weekly Price Report OCT (Z14) NOV (Z14)

U.S. Wheat Associates
Weekly Price Report
October 31, 2014
Export
Region
Great
Lakes
Gulf of
Mexico
Pacific
N. West
OCT (Z14)
(nearbys)
FOB $/bu
Percent Protein
12% (Dry) Moisture Basis
NS/DNS 13.0 (14.8)
NS/DNS 13.5 (15.3)
NS/DNS 14.0 (15.9)
NS/DNS 13.0 (14.8)
NS/DNS 13.5 (15.3)
NS/DNS 14.0 (15.9)
HRW Ord
HRW 11.0 (12.5)
HRW 11.5 (13.1)
HRW 12.0 (13.6)
HRW 12.5 (14.2)
SRW
NS/DNS 13.0 (14.8)
NS/DNS 13.5 (15.3)
NS/DNS 14.0 (15.9)
HRW Ord
HRW 11.5 (13.1)
HRW 12.0 (13.6)
HRW 13.0 (14.8)
SW Unspecified
SW 10.5 (11.9) Max
SW 9.5 (10.8) Max
WW with 10% Club
WW with 20% Club
M
M
M
M
M
M
K
K
K
K
K
C
M
M
M
K
K
K
K
$
$
$
$
$
7.04
7.44
7.94
8.29
8.79
9.29
7.69
7.74
7.74
7.79
7.84
6.93
9.49
9.69
9.99
7.49
7.54
7.64
7.84
7.50
7.60
8.60
8.25
8.50
OCT (Z14)
NOV (Z14)
DEC (Z14)
JAN (H15)
FEB (H15)
MAR (H15)
APR (K15)
$/bu
$/MT
$/MT
¢/bu
$/MT
¢/bu
$/MT
¢/bu
$/MT
¢/bu
$/MT
¢/bu
$/MT
¢/bu
$/MT
¢/bu
Year Ago
(nearbys)
$/MT
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.02
0.02
0.02
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
0.25
0.12
0.02
-0.08
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
0.00
0.55
0.55
0.05
0.90
0.80
3
3
3
1
1
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
9
4
1
-3
-2
-2
-2
0
20
20
2
33
29
259
273
292
305
323
341
282
284
284
286
288
254
349
356
367
275
277
281
288
276
279
316
303
312
130
170
220
255
305
355
175
180
180
185
190
160
375
395
425
155
160
170
190
7.50
7.60
8.60
8.25
8.50
259
273
292
305
323
341
282
284
284
286
288
254
349
356
367
275
277
281
288
276
279
316
303
312
130
170
220
255
305
355
175
180
180
185
190
160
375
395
425
155
160
170
190
7.50
7.60
8.60
8.25
8.50
259
273
292
305
323
341
282
284
284
286
288
256
345
352
363
275
277
281
288
276
279
316
303
312
130
170
220
255
305
355
175
180
180
185
190
165
365
385
415
155
160
170
190
7.50
7.60
8.60
8.25
8.50
closed
closed
closed
310
329
347
279
281
281
283
284
261
343
351
362
279
281
284
292
276
279
316
303
312
N/A
N/A
N/A
260
310
360
160
165
165
170
175
165
350
370
400
160
165
175
195
7.50
7.60
8.60
8.25
8.50
closed
closed
closed
312
330
349
279
281
281
283
284
259
343
351
362
279
281
284
292
276
279
316
303
312
N/A
N/A
N/A
265
315
365
160
165
165
170
175
160
350
370
400
160
165
175
195
7.50
7.60
8.60
8.25
8.50
closed
closed
closed
314
332
351
279
281
281
283
284
257
343
351
362
279
281
284
292
276
279
316
303
312
N/A
N/A
N/A
270
320
370
160
165
165
170
175
155
350
370
400
160
165
175
195
7.50
7.60
8.60
8.25
8.50
258
273
291
321
339
358
278
280
280
282
283
260
343
350
361
278
280
283
291
276
279
316
303
312
110
150
200
280
330
380
155
160
160
165
170
155
340
360
390
155
160
170
190
7.50
7.60
8.60
8.25
8.50
294
294
301
331
338
346
323
325
325
328
332
288
327
333
340
323
325
326
336
294
298
305
301
316
week change
FOB
Basis
FOB
Basis
FOB
Basis
FOB
Basis
FOB
Basis
FOB
Basis
FOB
Basis
Durum: a range of prices are available depending upon various quality attributes.
Futures Settlements as of
October 31, 2014
Chicago BOT SRW
Kansas City BOT HRW
Minneapolis MGE NS/DNS
Chicago BOT Corn
Chicago BOT Soybeans
Legend:
Cash:
Convert:
Grey positions not quoted on specific exchange
DEC (Z14)
NOV (X14)
$/MT
$/bu
195.66
218.16
210.90
148.34
384.52
10.4650
week
change
$/bu
0.6900
week
DEC (Z14) change
$/bu
$/bu
5.3250
0.1475
5.9375
0.0000
5.7400
0.0700
3.7675
0.2375
week
JAN (F15) change MAR (H15)
$/bu
$/bu
$/bu
5.4575
5.9900
5.8440
3.8925
10.4925
0.6600
10.5325
week
change MAY (K15)
$/bu
$/bu
0.1475
5.5325
0.0275
6.0150
0.0640
5.9300
0.2250
3.9800
0.6325
10.5800
week
change
$/bu
0.1450
0.0525
0.0740
0.2275
0.6125
week
week
JUL (N15) change AUG (Q15) change
$/bu
$/bu
$/bu
$/bu
5.6025
0.1400
5.9775
0.0725
6.0220
0.0800
4.0425
0.2150
10.6275
0.6050
10.6275 0.6000
M = Minneapolis Grain Exchange; K = Kansas City Board of Trade; C = Chicago Board of Trade;
$ = cash price quote; N/A = quote not available; closed = Great Lakes are closed to vessels for winter; ¢/bu = cents per bushel;
Futures Contract Month: H = March; K = May; N = July; U = September; Z = December
NS/DNS=Northern Spring/Dark Northern Spring (subclasses of Hard Red Spring); HRW=Hard Red Winter; SRW=Soft Red Winter; SW=Soft White; WW=Western White (White Club & Soft White)
F.O.B.= "Free on board" - Seller is responsible for placing grain at the end of the loading spout. Buyer is responsible for providing the ocean vessel and for all other costs after the grain is delivered on board.
Basis: The difference between the cash price and futures month for specific quality, shipping period and geographical location.
Durum, SW and WW are quoted in dollars per bushel ($/bu.) rather than basis for each contract month.
To compute cash price, add basis level and current futures to get price per bushel. Multiply by 36.743 to get price per metric ton.
Example: Basis = 70 and Future Price = $9.00, the price per bushel is $9.00 + .70 = $9.70/bu. Price per metric ton is $9.70 * 36.743 = $356/MT.
All prices are based upon U.S. number two grade or better as certified by the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS).
SEP (U15)
$/bu
5.7050
6.0750
6.1020
4.1025
10.4250
week
change
$/bu
0.1475
0.0550
0.0800
0.2000
0.5500
U.S. Wheat Associates
Weekly Price Report (page 2)
October 31, 2014
U.S. dollars/metric ton
Handymax
40-46 TMT
15
46
Panamax
54+ TMT
31
45
35
47
38
39
30
33
70
65
60
65
39
42
29
32
52
36
27
28
30
34
25
27
29
Freight Index**
Week Ending
10/24/2014
10/16/2014
10/10/2014
10/3/2014
9/26/2014
9/19/2014
9/12/2014
9/5/2014
8/29/2014
8/22/2014
8/15/2014
8/8/2014
8/1/2014
7/25/2014
7/18/2014
7/11/2014
7/4/2014
6/26/2014
6/20/2014
6/13/2014
6/6/2014
5/30/2014
5/23/2014
5/16/2014
5/9/2014
5/2/2014
4/25/2014
4/18/2014
4/11/2014
41705
Note: Rates for freight leaving the Great Lakes are quoted for 18,000 MT "Salties."
General
Index
422.5
415.5
422.7
425.3
425.5
428.8
425.3
433.0
430.6
427.6
420.1
418.9
415.9
415.2
418.0
426.0
431.3
431.6
430.0
432.6
437.6
435.8
435.7
435.3
437.6
434.8
438.5
440.9
450.7
451.1
Grain Freight
Index
511.0
502.9
511.7
514.7
511.5
514.8
508.5
517.9
517.1
513.3
507.9
506.8
505.3
505.1
508.1
511.4
518.1
520.3
519.1
521.5
530.2
530.2
529.7
528.8
530.9
529.3
533.2
536.0
539.3
540.4
Number of
Fixtures
585
608
523
517
469
530
480
474
424
487
499
503
470
556
543
543
447
522
546
492
455
337
445
449
340
447
262
376
355
Ocean Freight Rate Indices
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
Aug-13
60
Canada
1.120
1.125
1.128
1.112
1.046
1.072
6.99%
4.39%
Egypt
7.182
7.170
7.170
7.170
6.907
5.509
3.97%
30.37%
EU
0.793
0.791
0.781
0.786
0.727
0.676
9.03%
17.41%
Japan
109.058
107.615
106.023
107.923
98.254
90.958
11.00%
19.90%
Russia
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
General
Egyptian Freight Estimates
40
30
20
10
0
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Gulf origin
Aug-14
PNW origin
Selected Exchange Rates
480
43.417
41.628
40.833
40.031
32.055
29.119
35.45%
49.11%
Feb-14
50
euro/US dollar xx
Brazil
2.466
2.497
2.465
2.385
2.189
1.743
12.66%
41.47%
Dec-13
Grain
Sources: *Trade representatives and recent shipments, **Maritime Research, Inc., ***Nominal Major Currencies, Federal Reserve Board
Summary of Foreign Currency Exchange Rates (versus $1 U.S. dollar)
Week Ending
Index***
Argentina
Australia
10/31/14
N/A
8.513
1.137
10/24/14
105.99
8.493
1.141
10/17/14
105.80
8.478
1.141
10/10/14
105.93
8.467
1.132
10/31/13
100.96
5.898
1.054
10/31/09
101.51
3.823
1.098
1 year change
5.04
44.33%
7.88%
5 year change
4.48
122.68%
3.56%
Oct-13
0.85
1.30
0.80
1.25
1.20
0.75
1.15
0.70
1.10
0.65
1.05
0.60
1.00
0.55
0.50
Oct-13
0.95
0.90
Dec-13 Feb-14
euro
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Canadian dollar
The weekly prices as reported by U.S. Wheat Associates are compiled through research from numerous market sources, including U.S. wheat exporters of all classes from various U.S. ports. The prices reported are representative of the value
of number two grade and the proteins indicated. They are not intended to represent offers nor should importers of U.S. wheat rely upon them as such. Additional factors may alter these prices significantly. These factors may include:
(1) payment terms (differing from cash against documents which are the terms used in the U.S. Wheat Associates price report); (2) various quality factors, and method of quality certification; (3) loading terms (USW prices represent
Free on Board and do not include loading rate guarantees, stevedoring costs or other elevator tariff charges); (4) different delivery periods than indicated in monthly prices reported by U. S. Wheat Associates.
U.S. Wheat Associates recommends regular contact with exporters of U.S. wheat in order to receive offers representative of your requirements. These contracts would allow importers to review contract terms and better understand the
U.S. grading system, role and function of the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS).
Contact: For questions, please contact Casey Chumrau at (703) 650-0241 or [email protected]
Canadian/US dollar
Handy
25-30 TMT
17
37
40
20
30
49
35
35
$/metric ton
Ocean Freight Rate Estimates by Origin*
Export
Import
Region
Region
US Gulf
Mexico (Veracruz)
W. South America (Peru/Ecu)
S. South America (Chile)
N. South America (Colombia)
E. South America (Brazil)
West Africa (Nigeria)
East Mediterranean (Italy)
West Mediterranean (Morocco)
Middle East (Egypt)
Japan
Mid Atlantic
N. South America (Venezuela)
West Africa (Nigeria)
Middle East (Egypt)
St. Lawrence N. South America (Venezuela)
Europe/Rotterdam
Middle East (Egypt)
Great Lakes
East Mediterranean (Italy)
West Mediterranean (Spain)
Rotterdam
West Africa (Morocco/Algeria)
PNW
W. South America (Peru/Ecu)
S. South America (Chile)
N. South America (Colombia)
Middle East (Egypt)
East Africa (Djibouti/Mombasa)
South Asia (Mal/Indon/Phil/Sing)
Taiwan
South Korea
Japan
Nearby Futures Contract Prices
10
220
9
200
cents/bushel XXl
8
$/bushel
HRW Basis at PNW and Gulf Ports
(ordinary protein)
240
7
180
160
140
120
100
6
80
60
5
40
20
0
Oct-13
4
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
KBOT
Apr-14
Jun-14
MGE
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
PNW
CBOT
Aug-14
Oct-14
Gulf
HRW Protein Premiums - PNW
HRS Basis at Various Ports
260
500
240
220
400
200
350
180
cents/bushel XX
cents/bushel XX
450
300
250
200
160
140
120
100
80
150
60
100
40
50
0
Oct-13
20
Dec-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
PNW HRS 14
Aug-14
0
Oct-13
Oct-14
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
ords
G.L. HRS 14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
12% protein
HRW Cash Prices at the Gulf
SW and SRW Nearby Cash Prices
370
12
350
10
8
310
$/bushel
$/metric ton
330
October 31, 2014
Weekly Price Report (page 3)
U.S. Wheat Associates
Gulf HRS 14
Apr-14
290
270
6
4
250
2
230
210
Oct-13
0
Dec-13
Feb-14
PNW SW
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Gulf SRW
Custom graphs of historic nearby cash prices may be accessed at:
http://www.uswheat.org/priceReports/nearbyCash
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
KCBOT Futures
Jun-14
Gulf HRW basis
Basis and cash prices for different delivery months are also available at:
http://www.uswheat.org/priceReports/deliverymonth
U.S. Wheat Associates
Weekly Price Report
Highlights:
October 31, 2014
Daily Settlement Prices (SEP14)
* Wheat futures closed higher or unchanged this week and hit a seven-week high on Wednesday.
Weather related production concerns in Australia and the Black Sea lent support to markets. Stronger
than expected weekly U.S. exports and lower than expected U.S. crop condition ratings also supported
futures. Spillover strength and weakness from corn and soybean markets affected wheat futures again
this week. Favorable growing conditions in the U.S. plains limited HRW gains while a stronger U.S. Dollar
pressured all three markets. CBOT December gained 15 cents to close at $5.33/bu and MGEX added 7
cents to $5.74/bu. KCBT closed unchanged at $5.94/bu. CBOT December corn added 24 cents to
$3.77/bu and CBOT November soybeans closed 69 cents higher at $10.47/bu.
6.4
$/bu
6
5.6
5.2
4.8
* Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring only. Premiums for Dark Northern Spring will vary.
4.4
10/27/14
10/28/14
10/29/14
CBOT
KCBT
10/30/14
10/31/14
* USDA released its first condition ratings for the newly planted winter wheat this week. The crop was
MGEX
rated 59% good to excellent, compared with 61 percent a year earlier and below analysts’ expectation
of 68%.
* Consultancy group IKAR said Russia’s 2015/16 production could fall as low as 46.5 MMT, down from an
Wheat Futures Forward Curve
estimated 58.5 MMT this year, due to unfavorable weather during winter grains sowing. IKAR cautioned
that its figure was preliminary.
6.40
* In its weekly Export Sales Report, USDA reported net sales of 444,900 metric tons for delivery in the
6.00
$/bu
SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a
premium.
2014/2015 marketing year, up 49 percent from the previous week, exceeded trade expectations of
300,000 to 375,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat,
through October 23, 2014 were 15.1 MMT, 21 percent lower than last year's year-to-date total of 19.2
MMT. USDA forecasts 2014/15 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 25.2 MMT.
5.60
5.20
* The Baltic Panamax Index closed at 1,233 on Friday.
4.80
* The US Dollar Index closed higher this week at 87.02, up from 85.80.
4.40
SEP 14
DEC 14
CBOT
MAR 15
KCBT
MGEX
MAY 15