Weekly Calls

Weekly Calls
October 27, 2014
Weekly Technical Picks
Exhibit 1: Torrent Power
Torrent Power (TORPOW)
Code
TORPOW
CMP
|154.10
Comment
Appears holding previous
resistance and Green support
line.
Action
Buy in the range of 148-151
Reco. Date
October 27, 2014
Stop-loss
| 143.00
Targets
| 163 / higher
Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Weekly Candlestick Chart
Exhibit 2: Escorts
Weekly Candlestick Chart
Escorts (ESCORT)
Code
ESCORT
CMP
| 166.35
Comment
Appears holding above its
previous resistance levels.
Action
Buy in the range of 162-165
Reco. Date
October 27, 2014
Stop-loss
| 156.00
Targets
| 178 / higher
Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 2
Trend Scanner
Positive Trends
Scrip Name
Aditya Birla Nuvo
Weekly Candlestick Patterns
Close
50 days SMA
20-day SMA
5-day SMA
1,696.4
1,564.0
1,648.7
1,660.1
Delivery % 5 days Averge
43.40
Bharti Airtel
410.3
394.0
402.7
405.6
71.90
LIC Housing Finance
343.5
312.3
321.1
334.7
41.60
Lupin
1390.9
1314.5
1362.9
1376.3
41.20
515.7
504.0
505.2
501.3
47.40
Tata Motors
Negative Trends
Scrip Name
Close
50 days SMA
20-day SMA
Sun Tv
310.7
349.0
324.2
5-day SMA Delivery % 5 days Averge
310.0
47.50
Bullish Reversal Pattern
Scrip Name
Bearish Reversal Pattern
LTP
Bullish Engulfing
Prism cement
Divis Lab
Scrip Name
LTP
Bearish Engulfing
77.35
Indiabulls realestate
66.1
1810.95
Bullish contunation pattern
Bearish contunation pattern
Axis Bank
423.75
Wipro
560.25
Bharti Airtel
410.25
Crompton Greaves
188.50
Divis Lab
1810.95
Gail
481.65
Tata Motors
515.65
Morning Star
Jubilant Foodworks
Note: Positive / Negative Trend stocks are scanned on the basis of mechanical signal.
Stocks which are trading above their 50 day SMA (Simple moving average) and
where 50 day SMA is rising for at least three sessions are considered in positive
trend and further filtered for a momentum signal of a cross over between 5 and 20
period moving average. Opposite is true for Negative trending stocks.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Engineers India
1333.10
266.25
Note: For Candlestick pattern description please refer towards
the end of the report.
Page 4
Market Activity
Domestic Indices
Index
Current
CNX Nifty
S&P BSE Sensex
Nifty Future
S&P BSE 500
S&P BSE Midcap
S&P BSE Small cap
8014.55
26847.72
8023.85
10253.61
9665.71
10667.85
Previous Change%
7779.70
26108.53
7817.05
9919.11
9272.49
10313.97
Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)
3.02
2.83
2.65
3.37
4.24
3.43
-1.2
Global Indices Weekly Performance
ITC
-1.0
LT
WIPRO
7.5
MARUTI
7.6
HEROMOTOCO
8.2
8.4
US
1,964.6
4.1%
TATAMOTORS
France
4,128.9
2.4%
Germany
8,987.8
1.6%
JINDALSTEL
UK
6,388.7
1.2%
Hong Kong
23,302.2
1.2%
China
2,302.3
-1.7%
Brazil
51,940.7
-6.8%
Close
Prev. Close
%Chg
1231.73
1236.17
-0.36
Copper
6762
6689
1.09
Brent Crude
85.78
86.35
-0.66
Gold
7.3
GAIL
15,291.6
5.2%
in US $
INFY
-1.0
Japan
Commodities
Sectoral Indices – Performance
8.5
DLF
-12.0
-2.0
12.3
8.0
18.0
Institutional Activity
FII
Previous Week
1068
MTD
-4319
July to Sep quarter
23643
YTD
79118
*Previous week figure are povisional figure
*MTD- Month till date
*YTD- Year till date
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
INDICES
Sensex
Nifty
Auto
Banking
Capital goods
Current
26847.72
8014.55
18025.95
18860.86
15133.42
1Wk
1M
3M
2.8
3.0
5.9
3.4
6.2
0.8
0.4
1.8
7.2
6.4
2.7
2.6
14.3
6.7
-3.6
Cons durables
FMCG
Healthcare
IT
Metal
Oil & gas
Power
Realty
BSE 500
BSE midcap
BSE small cap
9665.14
7421.26
13923.77
10156.32
11309
10796.64
2082.63
1489.99
10253.61
9665.71
10667.85
4.1
1.5
3.4
0.3
4.2
2.4
4.7
4.2
3.4
4.2
3.4
-1.7
-2.8
-2.9
-5.1
-0.7
0.5
5.8
-5.9
0.0
-0.5
-3.4
11.7
5.3
16.6
3.9
-15.0
-2.3
-5.0
-24.5
3.2
3.6
3.9
DII
289
3490
16193
12679
Page 5
Strategy Follow up – Previous Week
Date
15-Sep
20-Oct
Scrip
Bharti Airtel
Sintex Industries
Product
Cash
Cash
Strategy
Buy
Buy
RP
414-409
82.50
Target
449.00
90.00
SL
375.00
78.50
Gain/Loss %
4.30
Comment
Open
Book profit at 85.80
Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar
Date
US
Event
27-Oct
Markit US Services PMI
27-Oct
Markit US Composite PMI
27-Oct
Pending Home Sales MoM
28-Oct
Durable Goods Orders
28-Oct
S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index NSA
29-Oct
Fed QE3 Pace/of Treasury Purchase
29-Oct
FOMC Rate Decision
30-Oct
Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing claims
30-Oct
GDP Annualized QoQ
31-Oct
Univ. of Michigan Confidence
India
27-Oct
Eight Infrastructure Industries
31-Oct
Fiscal Deficit INR Crore
China
28-Oct
Industrial Profits YoY
29-Oct
Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment
29-Oct
Leading Index
UK
27-Oct
Nationwide House PX MoM
29-Oct
Net Consumer Credit
29-Oct
Money Supply M4 MoM
30-Oct
Lloyds Business Barometer
31-Oct
GfK Consumer Confidence
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 6
NOTES:
•
Please execute the recommendation within the prescribed range provided in the report
•
Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing
basis
•
We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 4-6% and trail stoploss on
remaining position to the entry point
•
In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in
prescribed range then the recommendation is considered not initiated
•
The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we
intend to carry forward the position, it will be communicated through separate mail
.
Trading Portfolio allocation
•
It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical
research products
•
Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
•
Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation
•
For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal
amount to each recommendation
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 7
Recommended Product wise Trading Portfolio allocation
Products
Allocations
Product wise
Max allocation
allocation
in 1 stock
Return Objective
Number of Calls
Frontline Stocks
Mid-cap stocks
Duration
Daily Calls
8%
2-3%
3-4 Stocks
0.50-1%
2-3%
Intraday
Short term Delivery
6%
3-5%
7-10 p.m
4-5%
7-10%
Opportunity based
Weekly Calls
8%
3-5%
1-2 Stocks
5-7%
7-10%
1 Week
Weekly Technical
8%
3-5%
1-2 Stocks
5-7%
7-10%
1 Week
Monthly Call
15%
5%
2-3 Stocks
7-10%
10-15%
1 Month
Monthly Technical
15%
2-4%
5-8 Stocks
7-10%
10-15%
1 Month
Techno Funda
15%
5-10%
1-2 Stocks
10% and above
15% and above
6 Months
Technical Breakout
15%
5-10%
1-2 Stocks
10% and above
15% and above
3-6 Months
Cash in Hand
10%
-
-
-
-
-
100%
Candle
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 8
Candlesticks Glossary:
Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore,
are important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More
importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in
complete charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of
the morning star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls,
and a black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session’s black body. Low of the pattern becomes
short term support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session’s open
but that session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two
candles is referred to as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session’s
range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of
sustainability of prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish
trend. The next candle line--the small real body—warns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior
up trend has stopped or reversed
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white
real body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session’s price
opens over the prior session’s high (or above the prior session’s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should
fall well into the prior session’s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a
very long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 9
Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
[email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
[email protected]cidirect.com
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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 10