Regional Daily Ideas Troika Top Stories

Regional Daily, 14 October 2014
5
Regional Daily
Ideas Troika
Top Stories
Agile Property (3383 HK)
Property - Real Estate
BUY HKD3.95 TP: HKD4.80
Mkt Cap : USD2,127m
Pg2
The government investigation on Agile’s chairman would affect its operations
and investor confidence. After the price correction yesterday, we think the
valuation is distressed but the bankruptcy risk is low. Maintain BUY and cut
TP to HKD4.80.
Analyst: John So ([email protected])
Pg3
Real Estate & Construction Across Malaysia, Singapore & Thailand
Other Key Stories
Regional
Weekly Spices
Analyst: Leng Seng Choon CFA ([email protected])
Malaysia
OldTown (OTB MK)
Consumer Cyclical – Retail
BUY MYR1.71 TP: MYR2.15
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Pg4
Sowing The Seeds Of Long-Term Growth
Analyst: Fong Kah Yan ([email protected])
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Company Update, 14 October 2014
Agile Property (3383 HK)
Buy (Maintained)
Property - Real Estate
Market Cap: USD2,127m
Target Price:
Price:
HKD4.80
HKD3.95
Macro
Risks
Time Needed To Regain Investor Confidence
Growth
Value
Agile Property Holdings (3383 HK)
Price Close
Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS)
10.40
104
9.40
95
8.40
87
7.40
78
6.40
70
5.40
61
4.40
53
3.40
250
44


Aug-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
50
Oct-13
Vol m
100
Source: Bloomberg
Avg Turnover (HKD/USD)
Cons. Upside (%)
Upside (%)
52-wk Price low/high (HKD)
Free float (%)
Share outstanding (m)
Shareholders (%)
68.5m/7.13m
47.6
21.5
3.95 - 9.35
37
4,178
Chan family
63.0
Share Performance (%)
YTD
1m
3m
6m
12m
Absolute
(52.5)
(35.5)
(29.9)
(42.3)
(57.7)
Relative
(53.5)
(31.2)
(31.2)
(44.6)
(59.1)

Major shareholder to inject cash. Agile Property (Agile) said that a
change in chairman would not result in a breach of any of its loan
facilities. As at end-June, Agile had CNY13.9bn total cash, including
CNY7.7bn in unrestricted cash vs CNY14.5bn in short-term borrowings.
Its major shareholder, the Chan family, plans to inject cash to support
the company. Note that a major loan is due in 4Q including a CNY2.9bn
bridging facility and a CNY2.5bn trust loan and Agile is confident of being
able to repay upon maturity.
Contracted sales likely to recover in October. Agile announced
September contracted sales of CNY2.05bn, a fall of 18% m-o-m and
40% y-o-y. However, its 9M14 contracted sales amounted to
CNY28.6bn, a 15% y-o-y rise. Although a change in chairman would
affect some business operations, we expect some sales recovery in
4Q14 on better market sentiment. Agile said that its October contracted
sales reached CNY2bn in the first 10 days of the month and it sees
improvements in the presales of large-sized units. Overall, we estimate
FY14 contracted sales at CNY40bn, ie as flat as last year’s. We revise
down our FY14/FY15 earnings estimates by 15%/23% respectively to
reflect lower contracted sales estimates and higher interest cost.
It will take time for investors to regain confidence. Agile should be
tight in cash but we believe the bankruptcy risk is low. The incident is
expected to hurt investor confidence and affect its normal business
operations in the short term. As a result, the company will most probably
continue to trade at a bigger valuation discount against peers. Our new
TP of HKD4.80 (from HKD7.40), is based on a 65% discount (previously
50%) to its new end-FY14F ENAV of HKD13.80/share (previously
HKD14.80/share), which implies a 2SD below 5-year mean. Maintain
BUY.
Forecasts and Valuations
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Total turnover (CNYm)
22,944
29,892
35,436
37,012
40,511
Reported net profit (CNYm)
4,105
5,000
4,827
3,865
3,422
Recurring net profit (CNYm)
3,364
4,635
3,843
3,561
3,422
Recurring net profit growth (%)
(4.6)
37.8
(17.1)
(7.3)
(3.9)
Recurring EPS (CNY)
0.97
1.34
1.11
1.02
0.98
John So +852 2103 5888
DPS (CNY)
0.28
0.31
0.38
0.19
0.15
[email protected]
Recurring P/E (x)
3.22
2.32
2.80
3.05
3.18
P/B (x)
0.50
0.42
0.37
0.34
0.31
9.0
9.9
12.1
6.2
4.7
20.3
21.1
17.6
12.6
10.2
Dividend Yield (%)
Return on average equity (%)
Return on average assets (%)
Net debt to equity (%)
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
Dec-14F Dec-15F
5.4
5.8
4.7
3.3
2.8
65.5
64.7
97.6
117.7
110.7
(19.2)
(24.7)
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report


3

.
3
0
.
2
0
0
.
3
0
0
The requirement by the Kunming City People’s Procuratorate for .
0
chairman Chan Zhou Lin to stay at a designated residence since 30 Sep 0
has unavoidably affected Agile’s operations. Yet, while we cut TP by 0
35% to HKD4.80 (from HKD7.40), based on a higher 65% discount to
ENAV, we maintain our BUY call. After the price correction, we think
the company will most probably continue to trade at a significant
valuation discount against peers but the bankruptcy risk is low.
200
150
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Regional Weekly, 13 October 2014
Weekly Spices
Real Estate & Construction Across Malaysia, Singapore & Thailand
Quality Houses is a large-cap Thai developer with
expected high 2015 earnings growth
Source: Bloomberg
Gamuda will benefit from the large scale Malaysian
infrastructure projects
Source: Bloomberg
Leng Seng Choon, CFA +65 6232 3890
[email protected]
Hong Kong Research
Indonesia Research
Malaysia Research
Singapore Research
Thailand Research
See important disclosures at the end of this report
We like Thailand’s real estate sector and expect double-digit 2015
presales. The S-REITs space could see more pros from the MAS’ recent
paper and the Malaysian Budget, announced last Friday, points to
gains for the construction sector.
Homebuyer sentiment in Thailand, which has improved since May, boosted
q-o-q presales of the seven major listed developers by 58% in 2Q14 and 9%
in 3Q14. Developers that launched new condominium (condo) projects in
3Q14 like Supalai (SPALI TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB27.00), AP Thailand (AP
TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB8.00), Land & Houses (LH TB, BUY, TP: THB12.50)
and Pruksa Real Estate (Pruksa) (PS TB, BUY, TP: THB43.00) recorded
strong y-o-y presales growth. Companies with no new launches in 3Q14 like
LPN Development (LPN) (LPN TB, BUY, TP: THB27.00) and Sansiri (SIRI
TB, TRADING BUY, TP: THB2.34) booked presale declines. Quarterly new
launches may peak in 4Q14 as LPN and Sansiri resume their launches
valued at THB20bn-25bn in total. We think 2014 sectoral presales could
contract by 10% y-o-y. Next year, we expect double-digit presales growth to
resume. Sectoral 5-year presales CAGR (2009-2013) was at 20%. Top Buys
are Quality Houses (QH TB, BUY, TP: THB5.50), Pruksa and LPN – the top
three large-cap developers with the highest 2015F earnings growth. Ananda
Development (ANAN TB, BUY, TP: THB3.70) is our small-cap Top Pick.
Last Thursday, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) published a
consultation paper to strengthen the S-REIT market. The key changes are: i)
the increase in the development limit to 25% of the deposited property (from
10%), and ii) the increase in the aggregate leverage limit to 45% from 35%
(single-tier limit without a credit rating requirement) as well as removing the
option to leverage up to 60% by obtaining a credit rating. We think there are
more pros than cons to the proposed changes. This would incentivise REITs
with ageing properties to carry out redevelopment works of their own without
assistance from their sponsors. Examples include: i) CapitaCommercial Trust
(CCT SP, BUY TP: SGD1.83)’s Golden Shoe Car Park, and ii) CapitaMall
Trust (CT SP, BUY TP: SGD2.30)’s Funan Digital Mall and Plaza Singapura.
Entities contemplating listing or were listed as business trusts may now find
the REIT structure more favourable. However, higher development and
gearing limits imply increased risk, and some REITs may become more like
developers. This, in turn, may turn away some "safe haven" investors such
as insurance and pension funds.
Malaysia’s 2015 Budget was well balanced, combining commitments for
greater fiscal prudence but mindful of higher costs of living for the people.
Important elements include the implementation of the goods and services tax
(GST) in April 2015 and a commitment to a petroleum subsidy mechanism.
The property and sin sectors were unscathed, while infrastructure projects
were strongly featured. The budget mentioned seven large-scale
infrastructure projects with a >MYR48bn value. Notably, these include MRT
Line 2 and LRT Line 3 (to be implemented in 2015) and the MYR27bn PanBorneo Highway. While these projects will have long gestation periods, it
reaffirms our expectation of a strong momentum of construction activity.
Preferred sectors include construction, basic materials, technology and
property. Some of our Top Picks include Gamuda (GAM MK, BUY, TP:
MYR5.61), SapuraKencana Petroleum (SAKP MK, BUY, TP: MYR5.33),
Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK, BUY, TP: MYR8.51), Unisem (UNI MK, BUY,
TP: MYR2.16) and Press Metal (PRESS MK, BUY, TP: MYR 8.30).
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Company Update, 14 October 2014
OldTown (OTB MK)
Buy (Maintained)
Consumer Cyclical - Retail
Market Cap: USD234m
Target Price:
Price:
MYR2.15
MYR1.71
Macro
Risks
Sowing The Seeds Of Long-Term Growth
Growth
Value
OldTown (OTB MK)
Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS)
2.30
108
2.20
104
2.10
99
2.00
95
1.90
91
1.80
87
1.70
82
1.60
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
78
0
0
.
2
0
0
OldTown’s share price has corrected >20% from its high of MYR2.22 in .
0
the past three months. Although we expect growth to remain muted for 0
the remaining three quarters after its weak 1QFY15 performance, we 0
believe its growth momentum will gain pace thereafter. Maintain BUY
with a revised TP of MYR2.15 (from MYR2.30), implying a 25.7% upside.
The stock is currently trading at an undemanding FY16 P/E of 12.8x.

Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13

Oct-13
Vol m
Price Close
Source: Bloomberg
Avg Turnover (MYR/USD)
Cons. Upside (%)
Upside (%)
52-wk Price low/high (MYR)
Free float (%)
Share outstanding (m)
Shareholders (%)
Oldtown International
Franklin Resources
Mawer Investment
Management
1.28m/0.40m
29.2
25.7
1.71 - 2.26
49
447
42.8
6.4
6.7


Recent share price retracement. OldTown’s share price has corrected
by >20% from its high of MYR2.22 in the past three months. We believe
the retracement was due to a combination of: i) weak 1QFY15 (Mar)
results, ii) the weak performance of its food and beverage (F&B) arm,
which reflects the current challenging operating environment, and ii)
slower-than-expected growth in its key earnings catalyst, ie its fastmoving consumer goods (FMCG) arm.
Counting on its FMCG arm. Moving forward, we expect growth from its
F&B arm to remain soft amid stiff competition and consumers’ cautious
discretionary spending. Its FMCG arm, on the other hand, should
recover and underpin growth ahead. The weak performance of its FMCG
arm in 1QFY15 was due to seasonal factors as well as higher-thanexpected selling and distribution spending. We note that sales have
picked up in the subsequent quarters after the delay in promotions of its
FMCG products in China in 1QFY15. Hence, we expect earnings from its
FMCG arm to normalise in the second half. In the medium to long term,
we expect earnings for its FMCG arm to grow by double digits, driven by:
i) growth in local sales from improving consumer sentiment, and ii)
growth in its export markets, particularly in Asean.
Risks. Key risks include: i) weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment,
ii) a change in consumer preference, and iii) rising raw material prices.
Maintain BUY with a revised TP of MYR2.15. We trim our TP to
MYR2.15 (from MYR2.30), based on a revised FY16 P/E of 16x (from
18x) to reflect the challenging operating environment for its F&B division.
However, we remain optimistic that its FMCG arm should start to reap
the fruits from an expanding regional distribution network next year. The
stock is currently trading at an undemanding FY16 P/E of 12.8x relative
to its peer target valuations of 19-22x.
Forecasts and Valuations
Share Performance (%)
YTD
1m
3m
6m
12m
Absolute
(17.8)
(11.4)
(21.2)
(14.1)
(16.8)
Relative
(14.7)
(8.9)
(17.2)
(11.7)
(18.1)
Shariah compliant
Fong Kah Yan +603 9207 7668
[email protected]


2

.
2
0
.
2




Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15F
299
337
382
417
484
Reported net profit (MYRm)
41.4
44.4
49.0
49.2
59.9
Recurring net profit (MYRm)
34.5
44.4
49.0
49.2
59.9
Recurring net profit growth (%)
23.2
28.8
10.2
0.5
21.7
Recurring EPS (MYR)
0.10
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.13
DPS (MYR)
0.06
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.07
Recurring P/E (x)
16.9
14.0
15.8
15.5
12.8
P/B (x)
2.46
2.04
2.36
2.24
2.06
P/CF (x)
12.7
11.0
11.6
9.6
8.7
3.7
4.2
3.5
3.2
3.9
7.72
5.86
8.27
7.19
5.57
24.8
17.0
15.4
14.7
16.8
Total turnover (MYRm)
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Return on average equity (%)
Net debt to equity (%)
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
Mar-16F
net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
(7.5)
1.5
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
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RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
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Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
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Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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positions in the subject companies, except for:
a)
As of 13 October 2014, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except
for:
a)
DMG & Partners Research Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No. 200808705N)
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