Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. 12 Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them Hilde Tubex Abstract Over the last two decades, the widespread growth of prison populations has led to various analyses examining possible explanations for differences in imprisonment rates. In this contribution, we discuss the learning from the wealth of comparative penologic al research available nowadays. Based on the literature and our own experiences with comparative research, we discuss common pitfalls and try to offer advice on how to address them. We illustrate the more methodological and theoretical discussion with leading works in this area, demonstrating the major findings over the last decades. We conclude that, regardless the various pains that one still has to face in doing comparative research, significant progress has been made in contributing to answer one of the most compelling penological questions, as how to best deal with crime in a society. Introduction One of the most compelling penological questions is how to best deal with crime in a society. One way of setting out to answer that question is to examine practice and experience in a variety of jurisdictions, analysing punishment and exploring the consequences of differing levels of punitiveness. This research forms part of comparative criminology, an area that is currently experiencing a revival demonstrated in numerous publications. However, the current interest in comparative criminology might lead us to forget that it is actually a relatively young discipline. While Downes (2011) rightly points out that criminology was born comparative, with historical contributions from such people as John Howard and Alexis de Tocqueville, this comparative focus seemed to have faded until the late twentieth century. Downes sees several reasons for this abeyance, amongst which are the impact of positivism Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. which makes comparison meaningless as the reasons for criminal behaviour are to be found in the biological or psychological state of the individual, and the methodological difficulties that come with finding reliable and comparable data. The latter issue will be discussed extensively later in this contribution. Another important reason is the fact, which may be hard to imagine these days, that crime and justice were not always ‘hot’ topics. For, after World War II and throughout the sixties, crime rates were rather stable, the welfare state generous to everyone, and the reigning criminological climate positive and hopeful, characterised by a strong belief in the rehabilitative abilities of criminal justice interventions. Downes and Hansen (2006) describe in their work how the optimistic belief in the penal welfare state of the fifties and sixties dramatically declined in the following decades, despite the growing investment in welfare provisions. For, after all, welfare provision was not successful in dealing with crime, as crime rates were going up. It was argued that welfare actually makes things worse, promoting the dependency of the ones who are subject to it, resulting in the ‘survival of the unfittest’. Furthermore, welfare intervention was increasingly seen as justifying and exacerbating discrimination and punishment. The global economic crisis in the 1970s, resulting in an overall recession and causing the growth of unemployment, was another attack on the belief in ‘penal welfarism’. This in combination with rising crime rates and the growing risk of victimisation pushed crime and punishment onto the political agenda (Garland, 2001; Lacey, 2008). This trend was sometimes strengthened by other developments such as the rising success of extreme right parties, as it was the case in Belgium (Snacken, 2007). As a result, and from the eighties onwards, most industrialised countries experienced an increase in their imprisonment rate. This evolution also attracted the attention of criminologists, who started looking beyond the country borders to see what was happening abroad. Downes (2007) describes how his attention was first drawn to the idea that there is an alternative to penal expansion in times of increasing crime rates by Hans Tulkens, the then head of the prison department in the Netherlands. This formed the basis of Downes’ pioneering comparative study on the difference in imprisonment rates in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands (Downes, 1988). Indeed, and as Pratt (2011) demonstrates, most Western countries experienced the same post-war development, however, the ways this impacted on the welfare model and penal policy were not the same everywhere. He illustrates the growing divergence between Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. the penal situation in Nordic countries (Finland, Norway and Sweden) and Anglo-Saxon countries (England and New Zealand). The Anglo-Saxon countries shifted their welfare investments to more coercive forms of governance: crime and insecurity became public concerns and were picked up by the media, politicians became increasingly influenced by ‘penal populism’, resulting in penal excess. By contrast, welfare investments were less challenged in the Nordic countries, levels of trust remained high and allowed for ‘a politics of acceptance and inclusion’. It is this sustained belief in the potential of the welfare state that forms one of the pillars of what Pratt describes as ‘Scandinavian penal exceptionalism’ (cf. Infra). David Garland’s ‘Culture of Control’ (2001) marked a milestone in the world of comparative criminology. In this third book of his trilogy1 he describes the penal evolution in the United States of America and the United Kingdom over the past 30 years. The content of his book has been widely discussed and debated in several reviews2 and subsequent work (Zedner, 2002; Tonry, 2007; Snacken, 2007; Lacey, 2008), but it has remained the benchmark work of explanation of the recent evolution of prison populations. Garland’s rather pessimistic analysis, based on merely US/UK data, has engendered a boom of criminological analyses exploring this area. Some of these studies have been conducted at a macro level3, looking for similar trends in several (comparable) countries, while others focus on individual jurisdictions and differences between countries. The last set of studies was strongly inspired by the predominance of Anglo-American publications, whose approach gives primacy to trends in the United States of America and United Kingdom as being most important and leading the future, and pays little attention to other countries (Tonry, 2001). Various continental European, but also North American (including Canadian) authors, pointed to the differences between Europe and the US/UK model. They also emphasise that there are significant differences in the penal situation of countries within Europe, and that even in the Anglo-Saxon family not all countries follow the US/UK path to the same extent. All the above prompted several studies analysing the situation in individual our neighbouring countries, identifying ‘various Cultures of Control’ (Nelken, 2009). 1 After Punishment and Welfare (1985) and Punishment and Modern Society (1990). Cf. Punishment & Society, 2002: 253-261; British Journal of Criminology 2002: 228-261; Critical Review of International Social and Political Philosophy, Vol. 7, No. 2 Summer 2004. 3 Macro level analyses start from the presumption that global transformations in the economic and social context have impacted on the way we punish, leading to more punitive societies. 2 Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. In what follows, we will discuss insights from the wealth of comparative penological research available nowadays. We start from the acknowledgement that, despite well recognised shortcomings and well known problems inherent in generating comparable data sets (cf. Infra), the most commonly used single proxy measure for punitiveness is rates of imprisonment, as it is the most practical available indicator. This chapter examines possible explanations for differences in imprisonment rates, and while doing so, it leads us through identified pitfalls in comparative research and offers advice on how to overcome them. The more methodological and theoretical discussion (full text) will be illustrated with leading works in this area (in boxes), demonstrating the major findings over the last decades. Comparing like with like The first basic rule of comparative research is to ensure that we compare like with like, as explained by Nelken (20104), one of the leading scholars on the methodology of comparative research. An initial check, if we are seeking to explain differences in imprisonment rates between jurisdictions, is whether the difference is simply commensurate with levels of crime. This seems quite evident, but the level and sort of criminality is often overlooked in comparative studies, as demonstrated by Nelken (2011) in his critique of the work of Cavadino and Dignan (2006). Although crime rates are important, it has repeatedly and convincingly been demonstrated that crime rates are not the main driver of prison populations. According to Tonry (2005: 8) ‘Punishment and crime have little to do with each other.’ Various studies (Young and Brown, 1993; Beckett and Western, 2001; Lappi-Seppälä 2008; Cavadino and Dignan, 2011; Nelken, 2011) have brought together a body of evidence showing that crime rates are actually going down, while prison rates are going up. It would be far too easy to claim that this actually demonstrates that ‘prisons work’, as Nelken (2011: 12) states “almost all criminologists agree that – even in the United States of America – only a small part of the recent reduction in crime can be attributed to the increasing use of prison”. According to Downes (2011), who illustrates this with the Dutch example, rising crime rates might have an initial effect, as they can be the trigger for putting mechanisms in place that lead to greater punitiveness which, once established, persists without further reference to changes in crime rates. What he explains as ‘the effort to hold constant in our comparison those factors... which would otherwise take away the point of a given comparison’ (Nelken, 2010: 35). 4 Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. We can conclude, therefore, that if we want to compare and explain the penal situation in different countries, we have to make sure that the basic characteristics of these subjects, such as crime rates and profiles, are comparable. What to measure? When it comes to comparing prison populations, the most frequently used measure is the imprisonment rate: being the number of prisoners out of 100.000 inhabitants. But even using this widely accepted definition, we are confronted with a set of difficulties. Since, while most countries calculate the number of prisoners divided by all inhabitants, in Australia and Canada for example, only adult inhabitants are counted. A further complication is that not all Australian jurisdictions use the same age limit for the definition of adults5. Differences in counting rules can have a significant impact. Van Dijk (2011) – well experienced in comparative data as he initiated and supervised the International Crime Victims Surveys – raised the point that the striking developments in the Netherlands, as represented in the statistics of the Council of Europe, can partly be explained by differences in the way the imprisonment rate is calculated. In the Netherlands, prison statistics include illegal immigrants that have not committed any offences, and juveniles in institutions following civil proceedings. If you deduct them, as most other countries do, the imprisonment rate in 2007 reduces from 113 to 72, which is, in comparison to other European countries, quite moderate. In comparative penology, the key issue is to explain differences in penal policies, and imprisonment rates are considered as an index of what is mainly referred to as punitiveness (Tonry, 2007). This further complicates what we have to consider. A first point of discussion is what imprisonment rates should best be related to. Should we consider imprisonment rates in relation to overall crime statistics, or only to the most serious offences, like homicide, which have a high clearance rate? How we resolve that question, will have a profound impact on our understanding of punitiveness, as was demonstrated by Nelken (2009). Furthermore, how well do imprisonment rates measure the intensity of prison use, as the size of the prison population per 100.000 inhabitants (stock) is determined by both the number of people entering the prison (flow) and the length of time they stay there. Some 5 In all states and territories the definition is 18 years and over, except for Queensland, where it is 17 years and over, ABS 4517.0. Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. countries such as Switzerland and Scotland imprison a lot of people, but, on average, for short periods of time, while others like Spain and Portugal have fewer admissions, but longer sentences (Nelken, 2009). Which is more punitive, a country that imprisons many people for short periods or one that imprisons fewer but for longer? Kommer (1994, 2004) demonstrates in a European context that the ranking of the countries in the European Sourcebook would look very different according to the indicator that is used to measure punitiveness. In addition, we could question how well imprisonment rates measure sentence severity and the intensity of social control. There are several possible interventions other than imprisonment, such as monetary penalties, community based orders, home detention, electronic monitoring. Further, some countries – like Norway and the Netherlands during the eighties - stick to the principle of one person to each cell, and if no places are available and no new prisons are build, the implementation of the sentence is postponed and people end up on a waiting list, which can also bias prison numbers (Green, 2007; Downes and van Swaaningen, 2007). Finally, it can be argued that prisons are not the only forms of custodial exclusion, there are also mental health institutions, social care institutions, psychiatric hospitals, asylums, etc. Snacken (2010; 2012), moreover, argues that the overall picture of punitiveness is much more diverse, including components as the retention / abolition of the death penalty, prisoners’ rights, human rights and such initiatives as restorative and therapeutic justice. Finally, imprisonment rates are only the outcome of a whole process, starting from the legislative framework, public practice in reporting potentially criminal behaviour, police activity, prosecution practices, sentencing and parole, each one with their own agendas and impacts (Snacken, Beyens and Tubex, 1995). As Lacey (2008) states, the operation of the criminal justice system itself, and its relationship with other institutions, plays an autonomous role. The lesson learned from the literature is that imprisonment rates definitely do not paint the full picture and that an understanding of punitiveness is improved by complementing them with other data such as information on the level and sort of offences, the number of admissions, remand prisoners, the length of the sentence, and alternatives to imprisonment. Even then, Nelken (2010) points out that we have to be critical of all official sources, as they might be influenced by budget considerations and political influence. Weatherburn (2011) illustrates this issue by comparing police recorded assault rates in Victoria and New South Wales in 2009, arguing that the difference can be explained, to a Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. large extent, by different recording practices. Weatherburn’s analysis has been supported by research conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (2005). For these reasons, Van Dijk (2010) argues that victimisation surveys should be the primary source when measuring crime. But imprisonment rates also have positive value for researchers, such as their availability and consistency, the existence of long-term series and the regular updating of data. Further, it has been demonstrated in numerous studies that imprisonment rates correlate quite well with other indicators of punitiveness, as – in the words of Van Swaaningen (2013) - punitiveness is a socio-cultural construct with both quantitative and qualitative components. It is for these reasons that they are, subject to the limitations outlined above, the most frequently used proxy measure for punitiveness. Possible sources are the SPACE6 statistics, the European Sourcebook7, the World Prison Population List (now at its 8th edition)8 and the World Prison Brief9, both the latter provided by the International Centre for Prison Studies. We can conclude that, in the absence of reliable alternatives, the use of imprisonment rates remains a valuable tool for assessing punitiveness. In doing this, however, we should bear in mind that it is an imperfect measure, which should always be accompanied by a discussion of the problems inherent in its composition and the limitations that should be placed on the generality of the conclusions that can be drawn from what it suggests. What to compare? After the discussion of the best measures to use to evaluate the penal situation, the next question that arises is what is the best unit to select for comparison? Traditionally, countries are compared, as they are mainly the level on which most data are collected and available. However, from federations such as the US, Canada and Australia, we know that there are significant differences within a country. In Australia, imprisonment rates are historically lower in Victoria, fluctuating around a 100 per 100.000 adults, while in the Northern Territory the rate is almost 800. The same is true for Canada, as the imprisonment rates in their provinces vary from 104 to 212, traditionally being higher in the territories that have a high Aboriginal population (Webster and Doob, 2011). Similar inter-state differences in the Statistiques Penale Annuels du Conseil de l’Europe, initially collected in French, online available from 1997 onwards . http://www.coe.int/t/dghl/standardsetting/prisons/space_i_en.asp 7 http://www.europeansourcebook.org/sourcebook_start.htm 8 http://www.prisonstudies.org/publications/list/40-world-prison-population-list-8th-edition.html 9 http://www.prisonstudies.org/info/worldbrief/ 6 Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. US have been studied by Beckett and Western (2001), according to whom they are related to the commitment to and investment in welfare. Beckett and Western (2001) analysed the differences in imprisonment rates within the US. They identify what they call ‘inclusionary’ and ‘exclusionary’ states. In ‘inclusionary’ states criminal behaviour is perceived as a social problem to which the appropriate response is investment in welfare. These states tend to have lower imprisonment rates than the ‘exclusionary’ states, which see crime as an individual responsibility and invest more in punishment. Downes and Hansen (2006) tested this hypothesis on a larger sample of 18 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries and find a statistically significant negative relationship between the investment in welfare (measured in percentages of Gross Domestic Product spent on welfare) and imprisonment rates. That is, consistent with the American study, they found that increasing levels of national investment in social welfare are related to relatively low prison populations. Both studies find this relationship getting stronger over time. But also in smaller counties such as Belgium and the United Kingdom penal trends are not captured by nation borders. As Snacken (2007) demonstrates, the development of the victimoriented movement happened quite differently in the French and the Flemish part of Belgium. For the United Kingdom, of the three major jurisdictions, two (England and Wales and Scotland) have imprisonment rates of about 150/100.000 while the other (Northern Ireland) has a rate of 99/100.000 (having risen from 54/100.000 in 2001), which also points to differences in the penal policy within country borders. The selection of national units is criticised by the so-called ‘globalists’ who start from a broader perspective of more global and cross national developments, even claiming that the days of comparative criminology are over. This globalised approach has been criticised by several comparative criminologists. According to Nelken (2010), globalisation processes do have their impact, but it did not all start with globalisation, and countries have always had an influence on each other. For example, Finland decided after the fifties that there was no reason why their imprisonment rate should be so much higher than their Scandinavian neighbours and that they would implement a deliberate policy to bring their prison population down (Lappi-Seppälä, 2000). This policy was effective and it makes Finland a prime example Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. of how the size of prison populations is not a matter of ‘fate’ but rather of ‘policy’ (Snacken, Beyens and Tubex, 1995). Nation states still have their individuality, according to Nelken (2010), and there might be even a start of de-globalisation. Downes (2011) confirms that even the strong support for global trends still leaves some exceptions to the rule, such as Canada and the Netherlands. The first would generally be considered to be within the neo-liberal community – which is mainly characterised by large prison populations – but the imprisonment rate in Canada has been moderate and stable over the last 50 years (Doob and Webster, 2006; Webster and Doob, 2011). Also, in the Netherlands, the imprisonment rates quintupled in a period that they could be described as a strong welfare state (Downes, 2007; Downes and van Swaaningen, 2007). Therefore, there will always be a need for a more detailed study of the local and the national. Downes (2011) argues that there is not one positivistic formula to explain punitiveness, maybe the closest we can get is the identification of risk and protective factors as developed by Tonry below. Tonry has from the beginning argued that, regardless of globalisation, explanations for penal policies remain remarkably local (Tonry, 2001), and he demonstrates in various articles that not all countries go down the US path. Further, he emphasises that even the other so called Anglo-Saxon countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia, only ‘halfheartedly’ follow the American example (Tonry, 2004; 2006). Throughout his articles, he develops a set of ‘determinants of penal policies’ (2007) dividing them in risk and protective factors. The risk of more punitive policies increases when the following characteristics are present: conflictual political systems, elected judges and prosecutors, sensationalist journalism, Anglo-Saxon political cultures, populist views on criminal justice policy, income inequality, weaker social welfare systems, lower levels of trust and perceived legitimacy of institutions. On the contrary, societies are better protected against punitiveness if they have consensual political systems, nonpartisan judges and prosecutors, Francophonic political cultures, and a criminal justice policy that is a matter for experts and professional experience. We can conclude that, while global trends have been identified, and undeniably have had an impact across national borders, for each global model, there are counter-examples, illustrating the need for more locally based research, explaining why this is the case and how the global Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. effects can be altered. We should also be cautious not to advance explanations of differences in punitiveness viewed at a national level where more detailed data show wide intra-state variation between more or less autonomous internal jurisdictions. Limitations of comparative research When comparing the penal situation in different countries, there are certain limitations that are hard to overcome. A natural limitation is being able to access information that is only available in foreign languages. However, with the growing domination of English, analyses of non-English speaking countries have become more readily available. In the case of Scandinavia we can even talk of a recent explosion of English literature (cf. Lappi-Seppälä, 2007; Lappi-Seppälä and Tonry, 2011; Pratt, 2007a; 2007b; 2011; Pratt and Eriksson, 2011; Pratt and Eriksson, 2012; Ugelvik and Dullum, 2012). Other examples are from French descent (De Maillard and Roché, 2004; Levy, 2007; Roché, 2007) and from Germany (Salle, 2003; Oberwittler and Höfer, 2005). The penological literature available on countries like Spain and Portugal and on eastern and central European countries is still limited (e.g. Lévay, 2012) and we should be cautious when using translated information that unintended bias is not introduced. Pratt (2007a; 2007b), for example, was criticised for the limitation in his methodology in only relying on translated documentation, an issue he later remedied in collaborating with a Swedish colleague (Pratt and Eriksson, 2011, 2012). But even then, the cultural meaning of some words may become lost in translation (Pratt and Eriksson, 2012). Nelken (2010) illustrates the same point with the Dutch word ‘gedogen’, which he translates as ‘guided tolerance’, but that is different from the English meaning of ‘tolerance’. David Nelken provides a valuable point of entry for Italy. His work on the analysis of the Italian situation reveals that there are several cultural barriers and that, if you are not familiar with the traditions and culture in a particular country, it might be difficult to correctly interpret what is happening, or what is measured by international standards. He illustrates this point in a critique of the analysis of Cavadino and Dignan (2006b) described below. Cavadino and Dignan (2006a; 2006b) select for their study twelve countries and divide them into four groups based on Esping-Andersen’s typology of political economies., They Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. differentiate neo-liberal, conservative corporatist, and social democratic corporatist political economies, and, to accommodate Japan in their analysis, add an oriental corporatist political economy. They find that it is mainly the neo-liberal political economies in AngloSaxon countries that have high imprisonment rates. Neo-liberalism is characterised by the free market principle, a minimal welfare state, material inequality, individualism and limited social rights, resulting in social exclusion and marginalisation of those individuals who don’t do well in the free market. In a later article (2011) the authors explore reasons for the relationship between neo-liberalism and punitiveness. They see as the main explanations the political culture and the interaction with political and state institutions that derive from the different political economies, as well as the impact of public opinion and the media within these political economies, which shape punishment. Starting from the Italian example, Nelken (2009) points to alternative reasons explaining why the imprisonment rate is relatively low, and that are not related to an assumed political economy. The low imprisonment rate in Italy in 2008 was strongly related to an indulto (collective pardon), releasing over a third of the prison inmates. To explain imprisonment rates, some specific characteristics of the Italian criminal justice system need to be taken into account, as there is the highly selective process of attrition throughout the criminal justice system, which ensures that many prosecutions are started, but very few arrive at conclusion. Therefore, Nelken supports the approach taken by Lacey (2008). She explains differences in punitiveness, by building on the analysis of Cavadino and Dignan (2006b), and relating the political economy of a country to their cultural and institutional structures. Lacey (2008) in her work contrasts liberal market economies – which she claims are more exclusionary - with more inclusive co-ordinated market economies. She explains this describing the political structures of both models in combination with their electoral arrangements and how they relate to the bureaucracy and judiciary. It is mainly liberal market economies, like the United Kingdom, with a bi-partisan first-past-the-post electoral system, that are more vulnerable to a politisation of crime and punishment issues. For, the conflict model feeds more into penal populism, as the polarisation between parties triggers the attention and impact of media reporting, while they rely less on informed expert opinion and rational decision-making. Further, the economic structures in both models are different: Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. liberal market economies require a more flexible and active work force, gain less from investment in weaker groups, with a higher risk of exclusion. Starting from a more positive view than Garland (2001), she identifies ways and strategies how the co-ordinated market economies can escape the threat of mass imprisonment and a ‘prisoners’ dilemma’. The examples above demonstrate that for the purpose of comparative research, we should be cautious in drawing conclusions about countries with which we are not familiar, and should take steps to inform our analysis with good local understanding of the structures and particularities of the countries to which we refer. The lack of reliable sources At this stage we probably arrive at the most frustrating point of doing comparative research: finding comparable and reliable data. In the early days, when we started doing comparative research (Tubex and Snacken, 1994, Tubex and Snacken; 1995; Snacken, Beyens and Tubex, 1995; Tubex and Snacken, 1998), data were mainly collected on a national, or even local level, and were a mosaic of incompatible and inconsistent definitions and categorisations, fragmented and punctured data sets with wide gaps, different sources constructing creative variations on the same facts and numbers, etc. Comparative research was hard work, seeking, sifting and sewing all possible sources together in a brave attempt to come to a coherent and reliable reflection of what was going on. More than once we regretted the day we went down the path of comparative research and wondered if it wouldn’t be easier to go there and count the offenders ourselves. Luckily enough, the world has moved on, and with the overall availability of websites and internet, the access to comparative data has improved a lot. However, the pains of comparative research are not over yet! In a recent check of the data available on (categories of) prisoners in Belgium and its neighbouring countries, we still had to conclude that there is a significant difference between the quality and the accessibility of government websites. Unfortunately Belgium is not exactly a shining example. In previous publications we repeatedly identified problems of availability and consistency of penological data in our country (Tubex, 2000; Tubex, 2001; Beyens and Tubex, 2002; Tubex and Strypstein, 2004), and according to more recent publications (Maes, 2010), this situation hasn’t changed. Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. Checking the internet, we conclude that what is currently available on the Belgian prison population is indeed more attractively presented, but it is barely usable for scientific purposes10. On the international, European and global level there are various sources measuring all possible components of life that can be used for comparative research. One example of how these broad parameters are used to conduct macro level comparative research is the study of Lappi-Seppälä described below. In his study, Lappi-Seppälä (2008) explores seven factors that are possibly related to imprisonment rates in a basic sample of 25 industrialised countries, and a larger sample of 99 countries ranked according to the UN Human Poverty Index. His quantitative analysis builds on sources such as the Council of Europe Sourcebooks, the International Crime Victims Survey, the EU International Crime Survey, the European Social Survey, the World Values Survey, the Luxembourg Income study, the OECD, the European System of Social Indicators and Eurostat, the UN Human Development Reports and the International Monetary Fund data. He identifies the most important factors as being: public sentiment (confidence in fellow citizens and government), strong welfare states, political structures and legal cultures. He asserts that prison populations can be explained neither by focussing on individual factors, nor by too general and complex theories. Explanations can be developed, he argues, through analysis of detailed country specific characteristics such as those he isolates. The conclusion of Lappi-Seppälä that trust in the criminal justice system is correlating with levels of punitiveness is challenged by Karstedt (2011). In her work, she tests the value of his hypothesis for a broad cross national sample, including regions outside of Europe. Her work is interesting as she combines a quantitative with a qualitative approach of punitiveness. In one of her articles, Karstedt (2011) analyses the impact of democratic values on penal punishment, as measured by imprisonment rates and prison conditions. Her cross-national 10 http://justitie.belgium.be/nl/binaries/Justitie%20in%20cijfers%202010_tcm265-138438.pdf http://justitie.belgium.be/nl/binaries/JAARVERSLAG_NL_BD_tcm265-187836.pdf http://www.moniteur.be/epi/doc/activiteitenverslag_2010_nl.pdf Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. comparative study includes 67 countries, and examines the impact of the values of individualism and egalitarianism on punishment. The parameters used are imprisonment rates deriving from the World Prison Population List, and prison conditions as described in the Country Reports as issued by the US State Department, both for the period 1999-2005. Her results demonstrate that neither individualism nor egalitarianism impact on the imprisonment rate. In contrast, they do present a strong linear relationship with prison conditions. This is, countries where these democratic values are strong do not imprison fewer offenders, but they are treated better and they provide for better prison conditions. This effect remains when the sample is limited to mature democracies, as measured by the Polity Index. While the measures used in the examples above are rather broad brushes with which to paint, they do allow analysis on a macro level. However, macro level research has also its limitations and has been criticised because of their failure to explain diversity in punishment and criminal policy making and for being inadequate to explain the conditions for change (Snacken and Verfaillie, 2009). We can conclude that, while two decades ago, the lack of sources was the main problem, the dizzying wealth of possible tools now available might cause the same effect. A realistic rule of thumb is still that all sources come with their weaknesses and inaccuracies, and that their relativeness needs to be taken into account. Improved reliability and comparability are becoming available but sources are still far from ideal. Quantitative vs qualitative analysis In addition to the more quantitative approaches of measuring punitiveness discussed above, Pratt (2008a; 2008b) makes a strong case that not only the number of prisoners is relevant to evaluate the penal situation in a given country, but also the conditions in which prisoners are held. For him, it is part of the ‘Scandinavian penal exceptionalism thesis’, describing the characteristics that have saved the Nordic countries from going down the path of penal excess as other, particularly Anglo-Saxon countries. In his award winning study, Pratt (2008a; 2008b) describes ‘Scandinavian exceptionalism’, with relatively stable and low imprisonment rates, enabling them to have a prison system that Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. is based on normalisation, with permeable walls, with well trained and sufficient prison staff, where prisoners are offered a good living standard and attractive work opportunities, and are included in discussions about the management of the prison. He frames this development in a historical context, including socio-political and religious factors, a demographically homogeneous and mainly egalitarian society, with strong reliance on education and expert knowledge, and a sustained belief in the welfare state. Recently, this ‘penal exceptionalism’ has been explicitly questioned by Scandinavian scholars having a critical look at their prison system (Ugelvik and Dullum, 2012). Pratt acknowledges that there are signs of a rising punitive approach, increasing politicisation and a decline of the role of expert opinion. However, these changes should not be overstated and in a reaction to the critique, he argues why the ‘penal exceptionalism’ claim still holds (Pratt and Eriksson, 2012). Another example of qualitative analysis is the work of Green (2007, 2008), comparing the reaction towards two child on child homicides, one in England and one in Norway. The first case attracted unprecedented media attraction, the public opinion was calling for severe intervention and politicians were going into this debate with a strong swing to repression and punitiveness, while the opposite happened in the Norwegian case. Through an in depth analysis of both situations Green describes and analyses the various factors that might explain the difference in this reaction. In his comparative study of two murders committed by children on children, one in the United Kingdom in 1993 and another in Norway in 1994, Green (2007, 2008) identifies several components that shaped the divergence in the reaction of the media and the political and public responses to both cases. The way both families of the victims dealt with what happened was important, as it influenced the way the media got involved and the level of newsworthiness. There are also more cultural components in the conception of childhood and to what extent they can be held responsible for their acts at a young age. But the bulk of the explanatory strength is, according to Green, to be found in the relationship between media culture and the reigning political system. It is mainly a majoritarian system as in Britain that allows for a high media profile expressed in poorly informed populist rhetoric. This, in turn, fed the moral panic of the public, distrusting the capability of the government to deal with crime and calling for severe sentences. In contrast, the consensus democratic model in Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. Norway allows for a more stable political system that is less driven by media reporting and it keeps the trust of citizens in government intact. In conclusion, we can state that both quantitative and qualitative approaches have their value, but in the light of what is said before about understanding what is happening in different countries, it is important to include qualitative elements in the comparison. Conclusion It would be understandable if, after reading this chapter, one is tempted to conclude that one’s future does not lie in comparative penological research: if a discipline founded in the opening years of the 19th Century has been unable over 200 years to agree on what it means by the punitiveness of a criminal justice system; if the most widely used measure it employs is recognised as deficient; if the information available on the national level is more and more blurred by intrastate, supranational and global trends; if the understanding of those data that do exist is so beyond the grasp of all other than those who have lived in the culture of each country they wish to study; and if governments have not found it necessary to generate series of data adequate to allow them to be systematically investigated, the prospects of successful research must appear remote. This conclusion would be understandable, but it would be short-sighted. Comparative penological research brings up a wide spectrum of contended and problematic issues that are intrinsic to the whole area of criminology. It is because of this discipline and because it is not possible to pursue it without engaging in the sorts of problems that this chapter has explored, that those contended and problematic areas have been identified. While doing so, progress has been made. The composition and evolution of prison populations is far less of a black box than it was two decades ago. Still, not all mechanisms involved have been revealed, and how they all relate to each other on various levels often remains unclear, which opens challenging avenues for further research, but certain contours of a better understanding appear on the horizon. There is the well documented impact of welfare states, the entwined cluster of political systems and their relationship with legal, institutional and economical structures, their correlation with a specific sort of media reporting and the extent to which this impacts on the public opinion and the belief in the legitimacy of government. These factors do not Tubex, H. (2013). Pitfalls of comparative (penological) research and how to overcome them. In K. Beyens, J. Christiaens, B. Claes, S. De Ridder, H. Tournel & H. Tubex (Eds.), The Pains of Doing Criminological Research. Brussel: VUBPress. only have an influence on quantitative measures such as imprisonment rates, but also on the qualitative conditions in which prisoners are held. 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