Document 194144

Deutsche Bank
db X-trackers
How to add value to your portfolio with ETFs
David Patterson
Head of UK Wholesale Distribution
Investors Chronicle Conference, November 2011
db X-trackers – Simply buy the market
2 platforms
db X-trackers ETFs
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db X-trackers ETFs
Innovation and liquidity for your portfolio
— Launched January 2007
— Over 190 ETFs covering a broad range of asset classes
— Equities – developed and emerging markets, short daily indices
— Fixed Income – bonds, credit (long and short), money market
— Alternatives – hedge fund, commodity, currency
— Euro 32.4 billion assets – number 2 in Europe and number 4 globally*
— Broadest range of fixed income ETFs in Europe
— All db X-trackers ETFs are compliant with Reporting Fund requirements
Largest funds (in £ billion)
DAX ETF
4.77GBP
MSCI EMERGING MARKETS TRN INDEX ETF
2.33GBP
EONIA TOTAL RETURN INDEX ETF
1.61GBP
EURO STOXX® 50 ETF
1.44 GBP
MSCI WORLDTRN INDEX ETF
1.37 GBP
*Source:
Deutsch Bank 11/10/2011
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What is value?
Whatever you want it to be....
Value as a style
Value in a sector
Value from low cost access to assets, style and sector
“A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of
nothing.” - Oscar Wilde.
Value: Securities that appear underpriced, i.e. “cheap”
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Value, value, everywhere, another drop, you blink…
An ocean of value
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Lets talk “style”: what makes good value?
Value Index methodology
A “Value Stock” is the stock of a company whose price is undervalued by
the market compared to its asset value and earning growth, thereby
offering a potential increase in stock value to the company’s actual value.
Remember “Value” = “cheap”
But how do you estimate or measure intrinsic value?
Subjectivity influences and varying analysis methodologies can result in
the same information being interpreted differently to arrive at different
conclusions of “values”.
There are several different value index methodologies used by S&P,
Russell, MSCI, Morningstar, the DJIA......
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How to assess Value Indices
Example: MSCI Europe Value TRN Index methodology
A “Value Stock” is the stock of a company whose price is undervalued by
the market compared to its asset value and earning growth, thereby
offering a potential increase in stock value to the company’s actual value.
The following variables may be taken into account when selecting the
Value Stock which comprise the Index:
(i) book value to price ratio,
(ii) 12 month forward earnings to price ratio,
(iii) dividend yield to price ratio.
Be aware that how a style index (growth or value) is weighted can impact
its performance and most likely wont track its “parent” (market
capitalisation weighted) index.
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Value Index based ETFs : 47 Global listings
(47/2643)
However in Europe...very limited choice
Source: Deutsche Bank ETF/ETC Product Directory 9thSeptember 2011
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So is there value in value as a style?
Some points to consider
“October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in
stocks.
- The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March,
June, December, August and February.” Mark Twain
“The four most expensive words in the English language are: ‘this time it’s
different”. Sir John Templeton
“The market can act irrationally and be wrong a lot longer than you can
stay solvent”
Value investing has done well, but is cyclical (& can hurt e.g; late 1990s)
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Value in broad markets and sectors
Some points to consider
Large developed stockmarkets are arguably value markets anyway
“It’s better to be roughly right than precisely wrong”. John Maynard
Keynes
“The most common cause of low prices is pessimism”. Warren Buffett
Capitalisation weighting is straightforward, whilst style investing can be
subject to arbitrary classification criteria
Style definitions may weight growth stocks that don’t grow and value
stocks can remain “undervalued” for long periods!
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Time out! ETPs vs ETFs vs ETCs vs ETNs
Clarify the terminology
London Stock Exchange
Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)
Other Products
Secured / Collateralised (Backed by assets)
Unsecured
ETFs
ETCs
ETNs
Exchange Traded Funds
Exchange Traded Commodities
Exchange Traded Notes
—
Diversified basket of
securities
—
UCITS regulated
—
Secured/collateralised
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Single-commodity or
diversified basket of
commodities
—
Single asset or diversified
basket of securities
—
Unsecured/uncollateralized
—
Futures or physically backed
—
Issuer credit risk
—
Secured /collateralised
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ETF construction and transparency
Full Physical, Partial/Optimised Physical, or Synthetic
Each method has merits and high levels of transparency
Full physical replication more common on liquid, concentrated, single
country indices ( e.g FTSE 100, S&P 500)
Partial physical replication using sampling or optimisation more common
on broad market indices with multiple components and/or countries: can
produce higher tracking error
Synthetic replication provides perfect index tracking regardless of index,
providing access to more asset classes
Securities lending to enhance returns is common throughout all UCITS
structures: Inside ETF with physical , outside ETF with synthetic
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ETF liquidity construction
Accessing the underlying market – same for physical and synthetic
Synthetic replication ETF
Full or partial Physical replication ETF
ETF
Cash
Investor
Collateral
(90%-120%)
Cash
Shares
SWAP
Counterparty
Index
Return
Asset
Return
Investor
ETF
Shares
SWAP
(up to 10%)
Sampling or
Optimisation
REPLICATE
HEDGE
Asset Market of underlying Index
(e.g. Bonds, Equities)
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Use of swaps by UCITS funds
— Use of OTC swaps in UCITS is not unique to the ETF market
— UCITS 3 (2001) provided rules and a framework on how funds could use
derivatives as part of their investment policy:
— Maximum counterparty exposure of 10% of NAV (for EU credit institutions) and
5% for other financial institutions
— Requirement for risk management processes to be put in place by the
management company
— Possible to track financial indices using OTC derivatives such as swaps
— Other types of UCITS funds distributed to retail investors using derivatives:
— Absolute return funds
— Long/short, 130/30 type strategies
— Capital protected funds
— Structured funds
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Summary of db X-trackers structure
— Deutsche Bank uses synthetic replication for its ETF platform because:
— It provides the most efficient way to track an index – perfect index tracking
before fees and index replication costs
— Allows access to broad range of markets and asset classes
— For the db x-trackers ETF platform, DB has in place market leading
standards in terms of innovation and disclosure
— First synthetic ETF provider to offer fully collateralised products
— Full disclosure of collateral and swap exposures on daily basis on
www.dbxtrackers.com
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db X-trackers website collateral publication
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Comparison of physical vs. swap based index
replication
Hypothetical example of physical vs. swap based index replication
Index
Performance of a swap based ETF
Performance of a physical ETF
Underperformance
relative to index
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Index
Performance after
fees and tracking
costs
Performance after
fees, tracking
costs and impact
of real life factors
With Physical Replication
ETFs there can be
inconsistent and unstable
tracking performance
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Complete asset allocation tool box with synthetic
replication ETFs
—
Access to a wide range of markets and asset classes via ETFs
— Construct diversified portfolio based on investor risk-return-profile
Equities
Bonds
Themes
Countries
Regions
Sectors
Developed
Emerging
Sovereign bonds
Property
Private Equity
Infrastructure
Shariah
Fundamental
Dividends
Markets
- £, $, €
Inflation linked
Corporate
Emerging Markets
Global Sovereign
Commodities:
ETFs
Broad commodity
indices
Money Market
Alternative
Investments
Short and
Leverage
SONIA (£)
EONIA (€)
Fed Funds
Hedge Funds Equities
Currency
Bonds
Credit
strategies
Effective Rate Commodities
($)
Direct / Physical
Indirect / synthetic replication
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Why use ETFs at all?
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MSCI Emerging Markets vs Bloomberg Active Index for Funds
Relative Performance - MSCI Emerging Markets Index
Index
The Bloomberg Active Index for Funds Emerging Markets Index (BAIF EM)*
is made up of 121 actively managed EM funds and calculated by Bloomberg
The BAIF EM Index has an underperformed the MSCI EM Index by 12.4% compared to
2.06% for the db x-trackers MSCI Emerging Markets TRN Index ETF
As of:
Source:
January 2011
MSCI, Deutsche Bank
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Value in broad markets and sectors
Some markets and sectors to consider through db X-trackers ETFs
MSCI Emerging Markets
MSCI BRIC
FTSE 100
FTSE 250
EURO STOXX 50
S&P 500
MSCI World Health Care
("People are living longer than ever before, a phenomenon undoubtedly
made necessary by the 30-year mortgage.“ Doug Larson)
FTSE Global Real Estate
S&P Global Infrastructure
Global Select Dividend 100
IBOXX UK Gilt Inflation Linked Index
DBLCI OY Balanced
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Value in broad markets and sectors
Some markets and sectors to consider through db-X ETCs
Gold
GBP Gold (Sterling hedged)
Remember, ETCs are not ETFs
Physical precious metal ETCs hold the metal
Other db-X ETCs hold gold as collateral
Silver
GBP Silver (Sterling hedged)
GBP Oil
GBP Agriculture
Natural Gas
db Commodity Booster
Energy Booster
Understand “Booster” or Optimum Yield methodology
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Commodity Futures – the impact of “rolling“
Development of major Oil indices since 2005
Crude Oil Spot
250
db WTI Booster USD Index
DJUBS Crude Oil Index
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index
Indexed to 100
Indexed to 100 points as per
01 August 2005
200
150
100
50
0
Aug. 05
Source:
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Feb. 06
Aug. 06
Feb. 07
Aug. 07
Feb. 08
Aug. 08
Feb. 09
Aug. 09
Feb. 10
Aug. 10
Bloomberg, May 2010. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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ETCs explained
Exchange Traded Commodities (ETCs)
Physically backed
(eg precious metals)
Synthetic backed
(agriculture, energy, metals)
— Tracks the “spot” price
— Tracks the “future” price
— For products that can be physically
stored
— For products that cannot be physically
stored
— Secured by the underlying precious
metal deposited with the custodian
— Typically secured by liquid assets
(equities, bonds, gold) deposited with
a custodian
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db Physical Gold and Silver GBP Hedged ETC
db Physical Gold GBP Hedged ETC
db Physical Silver GBP Hedged ETC
Underlying: Gold Spot price (GOLDLNPM)
Metal Entitlement: 1/100 troy ounce
Underlying: Silver Spot price (SLVRLN)
Metal Entitlement: 1 troy ounce
Product Fee: 0.29% p.a.
FX Hedging Fee: 0.40% p.a.
Product Fee: 0.45% p.a.
FX Hedging Fee: 0.40% p.a.
Exchange code: XGLS
SEDOL: B68FL05
Exchange code: XSIH
SEDOL: B65S8K6
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Value in acquisition and ownership of ETFs
Look at all parts of the value chain and consider:
all-in fees
index methodology
“optimum yield” approaches
spreads
stamp duty (none on ETFs)
brokerage deals ( e.g. regular savings offers)
and ultimately it all comes down to tracking difference
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Summary of Value opportunities in ETFs
Style, Sector, Cost
Capitalisation weighting is straightforward, whilst style investing can be
subject to arbitrary classification criteria
Style definitions may weight growth stocks that don’t grow and value
stocks can remain “undervalued” for long periods!
Asset allocation is all important: consider sector and markets ETFs first
Look at all parts of the value chain of your tracker: consider impact of allin fees, index methodology, “optimum yield” approaches, spreads, stamp
duty (none on ETFs), brokerage deals, and tracking error.
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Summary: Features of swap based ETFs
— Highly efficient index tracking
— Access to a wider range of markets and asset classes than possible under
direct replication
— Swap based ETFs have evolved beyond UCITS guidelines to limit or
eliminate counterparty exposure
Key investor considerations for all ETFs and tracker funds
— Know your index.
— Check the tracking performance vs. index
— Check the costs of buying and selling
— Know and understand the market and structure risk
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Further Information
www.dbxtrackers.com
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Brochures / Guides
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Further Information
www.etc.db.com
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ETC Brochures
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Investment risks relating to db X-trackers ETFs (1)
—
Investors should note that the db X-trackers ETFs are not capital protected or guaranteed and
investors in each db X-trackers ETF should be prepared and able to sustain losses up to the
total capital invested.
—
Investment in db X-trackers ETFs involves numerous risks including among others, general market
risks relating to the relevant index, credit risks on the provider of index swaps utilised in the db Xtrackers ETFs, exchange rate risks, interest rate risks, inflationary risks, liquidity risks and legal and
regulatory risks.
—
The db X-trackers ETFs use Deutsche Bank as the counterparty for OTC derivative transactions.
Although the db X-trackers ETFs fuly comply with the UCITS requirements in respect of counterparty
exposure, in the event of a default under the terms of the OTC derivative transaction by Deutsche
Bank, the db X-trackers ETFs could lose a portion of the NAV of the ETF. The NAV at the time of
default also may be considerably less than the amount an investor originally invested depending on
the performance of the relevant underlying index. You should therefore understand and evaluate the
counterparty credit risk prior to making any investment.
—
The value of an investment in a db X-trackers ETF may go down as well as up and past performance
is not a guide to the future.
—
Not all db X-trackers ETFs may be suitable for all investors so please consult your financial advisor
before you invest in a db X-trackers ETF.
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Investment risks relating to db X-trackers ETFs (2)
—
ETFs shares may be denominated in a currency different to that of the traded currency of the stock
exchange on which the ETF is listed in which case exchange rate fluctuations may have a negative
effect on the returns of the fund.
—
Tax treatment of the db X-trackers ETFs depends on the individual circumstances of each investor.
The levels and bases of, and any applicable relief from, taxation can change. db X-trackers may
trade in limited markets.
—
db X-trackers may be unable to replicate precisely the performance of an index.
—
Investors' income is not fixed and may fluctuate.
—
The value of any investment involving exposure to foreign currencies can be affected by exchange
rate movements.
—
For further information regarding risk factors, please refer to the risk factors section of the listing
particulars or full prospectus.
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Disclaimer
This document is intended for discussion purposes only and does not create any legally binding obligations on the part of Deutsche Bank AG
and/or its affiliates (“DB”). Without limitation, this document does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into
any transaction. When making an investment decision, you should rely solely on the final documentation relating to the transaction and not the
summary contained herein. DB is not acting as your financial adviser or in any other fiduciary capacity with respect to this proposed transaction.
The transaction(s) or products(s) mentioned herein may not be appropriate for all investors and before entering into any transaction you should
take steps to ensure that you fully understand the transaction and have made an independent assessment of the appropriateness of the
transaction in the light of your own objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and benefits of entering into such transaction. For
general information regarding the nature and risks of the proposed transaction and types of financial instruments please go to
www.globalmarkets.db.com/riskdisclosures. You should also consider seeking advice from your own advisers in making this assessment. If you
decide to enter into a transaction with DB, you do so in reliance on your own judgment. The information contained in this document is based on
material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not represent that it is accurate, current, complete, or error free. Assumptions, estimates and
opinions contained in this document constitute our judgment as of the date of the document and are subject to change without notice. Any
projections are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be
achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This material was prepared by a Sales or Trading function within DB, and was
not produced, reviewed or edited by the Research Department. Any opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other
DB departments including the Research Department. Sales and Trading functions are subject to additional potential conflicts of interest which
the Research Department does not face. DB may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed herein. DB trades or
may trade as principal in the instruments (or related derivatives), and may have proprietary positions in the instruments (or related derivatives)
discussed herein. DB may make a market in the instruments (or related derivatives) discussed herein. Sales and Trading personnel are
compensated in part based on the volume of transactions effected by them. The distribution of this document and availability of these products
and services in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law. You may not distribute this document, in whole or in part, without our express
written permission. DB SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER LOSSES
OR DAMAGES INCLUDING LOSS OF PROFITS INCURRED BY YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY THAT MAY ARISE FROM ANY RELIANCE ON
THIS DOCUMENT OR FOR THE RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR TIMELINESS THEREOF. DB is authorised under German
Banking Law (competent authority: BaFin - Federal Financial Supervising Authority) and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the
conduct of UK business.
db x-trackers and db x-trackers II are registered with the Luxembourg Trade and Companies’ Register under numbers B-119 899 and B-124 284
respectively. DB Platinum Advisors acts as the management company. db x-trackers and db x-trackers II are each registered in the GrandDuchy of Luxembourg as an undertaking for collective investment pursuant to Part I of the law of 20 December 2002 relating to undertakings for
collective investment, as amended. db x-trackers and db x-trackers II each qualiify as an undertaking for collective investment in transferable
Securities under article 1(2) of the Council Directive 85/611/EEC of 20 December 1985.
A full description of the terms and conditions of all sub-funds are included in the prospectus of db x-trackers and db x-trackers II. You can get the
full and the simplified prospectus of each sub-fund of db x-trackers and db x-trackers II at [email protected]
© Deutsche Bank AG 2011. All rights reserved.”
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Investment risks relating to db ETC (physical metals
products)
Investors should note that the db ETCs are not capital protected or guaranteed and investors in each db ETC
should be prepared and able to sustain losses up to the total capital invested.
—Investment in db ETCs involves numerous risks including among others, general market risks relating to the relevant precious
metals, exchange rate risks, interest rate risks, inflationary risks, liquidity risks and legal and regulatory risks.
—Prices of precious metals are generally more volatile than prices in other asset classes.
—Investments in ETC securities will not accrue any interest and performance is subject to the deduction of the product fee.
—The value of an investment in ETC securities may go down as well as up and past performance is not a good indicator of future
—performance.
—Investing in ETC securities will not make an investor the owner of the relevant metal.
—Currency hedging component of ETC securities: In case the issuer has made a profit on a currency hedging component between
relevant observation dates, the issuer and the investors will have an unsecured credit exposure to the Programme Counterparty for
such a profit.
—Not all db ETCs may be suitable for all investors so please consult your financial advisor before you invest in a db ETCs.
—Investors' notional invested amount and potential profits are not fixed and may fluctuate.
Other Risk Factors
—
—
Tax treatment of the db ETCs depends on the individual circumstances of each investor. The levels and bases of, and
any applicable relief from taxation can change db ETC may trade in limited markets.
The value of any investment involving exposure to foreign currencies can be affected by exchange rate movements.
For further information regarding risk factors, please refer to the risk factors section of the listing particulars or full
prospectus.
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Investment risks relating to db ETC (Index-based
products)
Product Related (for db ETC issued by DB ETC Index plc)
—Investors should note that the db ETCs are not capital protected or guaranteed and investors in each db ETC should be prepared and able to
sustain losses up to the total capital invested.
—Investment in db ETCs involves numerous risks including among others, general market risks relating to the relevant commodities used in the
index, credit risks on the provider of index swaps utilised in the ETCs, exchange rate risks, interest rate risks, inflationary risks, liquidity risks and
legal and regulatory risks.
—The db ETCs use Deutsche Bank as the counterparty for OTC derivative transactions who will post allocated gold as collateral. In the event of a
default under the terms of the OTC derivative transaction by Deutsche Bank, the investors in db ETCs could lose a part of their capital invested
not only due to a decline in the relevant underlying index but also if the value of the gold collateral declined after the counterparty default. The
NAV at the time of default also may be considerably less than the amount an investor originally invested depending on the performance of the
relevant underlying index. You should therefore understand and evaluate the counterparty credit risk prior to making any investment.
—The value of an investment in a db ETC may go down as well as up and past performance is not a guide to the future.
—Not all db ETCs may be suitable for all investors so please consult your financial advisor before you invest in a db ETCs.
—Commodity indices are replicated using futures contracts which may lead to negative or positive roll returns
—db ETCs may be unable to replicate precisely the performance of an index.
—Investors' notional invested amount and potential profits are not fixed and may fluctuate.
Other Risk Factors
—Under certain limited circumstances as described in the Terms & Conditions, the allocated gold collateral could be substituted with collateral
comprising financial assets that may include equity shares and fixed income securities.
—Tax treatment of the db ETCs depends on the individual circumstances of each investor. The levels and bases of, and any applicable relief from
taxation can change db ETC may trade in limited markets.
—The value of any investment involving exposure to foreign currencies can be affected by exchange rate movements.
—For further information regarding risk factors, please refer to the risk factors section of the listing particulars or full prospectus.
—An investment in a db ETCs tracking a short index is intended for financially sophisticated investors who wish to take a very short term view on
the underlying index, e.g. for day trading purposes. Therefore db ETCs on short indices are appropriate only for financially sophisticated investors
who understand their strategy, characteristics and risks. db ETCs on short indices are not intended to be a buy and hold investment.
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Disclaimer
© 2010 Deutsche Bank AG, as of May 2011
This presentation contains a short summary description of the above mentioned ETCs and is for discussion purposes only.
A complete description of the securities is in the respective and most recent prospectus of the above mentioned ETCs.
This presentation is not for distribution to, or for the attention of, US or Canadian persons. Without limitation, this
presentation does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. When making an investment
decision, you should rely solely on the final documentation and any prospectus relating to the transaction and not this
summary. Investment strategies involve numerous risks. Prospective investors or counterparties should discuss with their
professional tax, legal, accounting and other adviser(s) the effect of any transaction they may enter into, including the
possible risks and benefits of such transaction and should ensure that they fully understand the transaction and have made
an independent assessment of the appropriateness of such transaction in the light of their own objectives and
circumstances. In no way should Deutsche Bank be deemed to be holding itself out as a financial adviser or a fiduciary of
the recipient hereof. Deutsche Bank may make a market or trade in instruments economically related to ETC securities or
derivatives mentioned herein, and/or have investment banking or other relationships with issuers of the relevant securities.
Deutsche Bank actively manages various risks, and on occasion may deal in securities mentioned in this document or in
related instruments during the period between your receipt of this fact sheet and the award of any order. Whilst Deutsche
Bank‘s trading or hedging activities are not intended to have any significant impact upon prices, its dealings could affect
the prices you pay or receive for transactions in related securities. Deutsche Bank, and its current and future subsidiaries,
parents, affiliates, divisions, officers, directors, agents and/or employees, disclaim all liability with respect to this document
and the information herein, and are not liable for any errors or omissions, or for any damages howsoever arising from any
reliance placed thereon, save as required by applicable laws and regulations.
A full description of the terms and conditions of all securities are included in the prospectus of DB ETC Index plc and DB
ETC plc. You can get the full prospectus of the DB ETC Index plc and DB ETC plc at St. Paul’s Gate, St. Hellier, Jersey,
JE4 8ZB, Channel Islands
Deutsche Bank AG is authorised under German Banking Law (competent authority: BaFin – Federal Financial Supervising
Authority) and is regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the United
Kingdom.
The registered address of Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch, is Winchester House, 1 Great Winchester Street, London
EC2N 2DB.
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