How to Pick The Winner Of The 2011 Melbourne Cup Warning:

How to Pick The Winner Of The
2011 Melbourne Cup
By Max Hitchins
www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au
Remember: There are 3 steps you need to take to receive my last minute tips on Melbourne
Cup Day Morning (Tuesday 1st November 2011). (See page 24)
(1) After 8am go to www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au
(2) Click on the Members Only icon (at the top on the right hand side)
(3) Enter User Name: member and password: thinkbig
Warning: Please DO NOT reveal the password to anyone. Otherwise, ‘the gods of luck’
may visit bad luck upon your wagering in the Melbourne Cup. (Luck and omens are ‘big things’
amongst the racing fraternity!
  
NB. I recommend you try out accessing the password protected page
www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au as soon as possible. If you have problems downloading the
eBook call Hayley McLachlan on 0402 104 974 between now and 1.00 pm on the day of the
Cup. (1st of November).
I recommend you print out this front page.
The very good news is that you are already a winner.
1
In investing the $9.95 for this eBook, in the hope that I will provide you with the winner of the
Melbourne Cup, you have already won:
1.
$200+ in FREE food and beverage at various pubs throughout Australia. All you need
do is go to www.THEBestPub.com.au and become a VIP member. (It’s Free). At the site
you will find Pubs throughout Australia who are very happy to ‘shout’ you food and/or
beverages for amounts ranging from $10 - $25.
2. This list of Pubs is continually being added to. So it may well provide you with an ‘never
empty’ well you can continually visit.
3. When you become a member of THEBestPub.com.au you will find every week prizes are
given away. For example - click on http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyEi_zM0mpg
to check out the free footy tickets Amy Hamlyn won. And click on http://
www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5_H3nF1VZs to check the Fields of Beauty Prize won by
Amanda Heppleston-Brown.
4. And click here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7yhg1hNNls to see how happy Kay
and Rachel were when they won a Free Trip for Two to the Melbourne Cup.... and click
here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtzPil0ogig to meet Scott and Lucy who also
won a free trip to the Melbourne Cup. WOW!
5. And finally, in this 2011 eBook, I have included a bonus section on how to improve your
memory...let me tell you about it now.
Bonus Section: How To Develop a Memory Like an Elephant
One of annual purchasers of this eBook saw me on Television demonstrating what can be done
with memory. (I have memorised the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place getters of the Melbourne Cup
since 1900.) And he wrote and asked if I could help him improve his memory. So, as I am in
the process of writing a Memory eBook course, I thought I would include part of it in this
Melbourne Cup eBook.
You will find this Memory section at the back of this eBook.
How to develop a memory like an Elephant
2
How To Pick The Winner Of The 2011 Melbourne Cup
By Max Hitchins
The 2011 Melbourne Cup will be run on Tuesday the 1st of November. Happily I tell
that my 'reducing the field' format was successful again in 2010. That means it has
worked for 21 times in the last 23 years. That's not bad! When I reduce the chances
down to six I then select my best three horses and then my ultimate choice of a
winner. I happily tell I have selected the winner 13 out of the last 23 times. Not
perfect...but not bad.
Although, not a regular gambler I am a 'serious' Melbourne Cup student. I study the
Melbourne Cup all year round. I invite you to check out and subscribe to my
Melbourne Cup Blog at http://themelbournecup.wordpress.com/
As mentioned I've even memorised the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place getters since
1900!
Usually all once a year punters, at Melbourne Cup time, try desperately to 'Pick the Cup
Winner.' My goal, indeed the purpose of this eBook, is to reduce the choice to one out of six
horses rather than trying to pick the winner out of twenty four horses. I recommend you then
have $2 each way on the six horses. You probably won’t win much but you'll be able to say "I
backed the Cup winner!"
This eBook is not written for the professional punter. It is for the once a year happy punters
who accept the annual challenge of trying to pick the Cup winner. But, in saying that, there
really is some seriously good information in this eBook that the professional punter would
appreciate. In this eBook you will find all the information about the 'lead up' races both in
Australia and overseas. You will also be able to access audio or video footage of most of these
races to check them out for yourself.
2010 Post Mortem
On Cup Day, in 2010, morning I posted this information on the password protected
page for members only saying:
The 2010 Melbourne Cup is the best field I have ever seen in a Melbourne Cup. Usually I can easily
discard at least 50% of the starters as ‘no chance.‘ I have not been able to do that this year. My
research (which began the day after the 2009 Melbourne Cup) indicates reasons why any one of 18
horses could win the Cup in 2010...and it would not be a surprise. The ‘international’ factor certainly is a challenge. There are nine international horses in the
field...and six of them have not had a run in Australia). And to this you can add the So You Think
factor. It is being quoted that So You Think will be the shortest priced favourite for forty
years....and I’m not including him in my six horses. The challenge is daunting!
I have a large question mark over whether So You Think can run and has been trained solely for the
Melbourne Cup. I think he was trained for the Cox Plate (which he won brilliantly). Now I’m
aware that far better judges than me, including the legendary Bat Cummings, assure me So You
Think can run 3200 metres. I’m also aware it will be a fabulous story for the media and for the
racing industry if the octogenarian trainer and the octogenarian owner can again win the Cup with
this champion horse - So You Think...and all Australia will celebrate just as happened when Phar
Lap won in 1930 and when Makybe Diva won in 2005. 3
But my Dad (who was a bookie) used to say “Bet with your head...not your heart!” Hence, using
my head, I have to look at facts. So You Think has never raced further than 2040 metres. Now he is
being asked to run 3200 against, perhaps, the best ever Melbourne Cup field. It would be unfair to
expect 200 and 400 metre specialist Ian Thorpe to seriously compete with 1500 metre specialist
Grant Hackett at the Olympics! Are horses the same? Guess we will know by 3.05pm today! Hence, I believe one these horses will win the 2010 Melbourne Cup.
Shocking (#1); Americain (#8); Descarado (#11) Harris Tweed (#12);
Holberg (#19); or Malukyday (#24)
and...My first three: Americain (#8) ; Shocking (#1); Harris Tweed (#12).
And the placings were:
Place No Horse
.
1st 8 AMERICAIN(11)
Jockey
Trainer
Weight
Margin
Gerald Mosse
Alain de Royer Dupre
54.5
2nd
24 MALUCKYDAY(5)
Luke Nolen
3-26.8
7
2.8L
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
3
4
12
19
13
20
5
10th 6
SO YOU THINK(2)
ZIPPING(15)
HARRIS TWEED(12)
HOLBERG(9)
MANIGHAR(19)
PRECEDENCE(14)
ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE
(8)
MR MEDICI(4)
Michael, Wayne & John 51.0
Hawkes
Steven Arnold Bart Cummings
56.0
Nicholas Hall
Robert Hickmott
55.5
Brad Rawiller
Murray & Bjorn Baker 54.0
Frankie Dettori Saeed Bin Suroor
53.5
Damien Oliver Luca Cumani
54.0
James Winks
Bart Cummings
53.5
Glen Boss
William J Knight
55.0
Darren
Beadman
Jim Cassidy
11th 23 ONCE WERE WILD
(10)
12th 9 TOKAI TRICK(3)
Shinji Fujita
13th 7 SHOOT OUT(16)
Corey Brown
14th 15 MONACO CONSUL
Craig Williams
(13)
15th 14 MASTER OʼREILLY
Vlad Duric
(17)
16th 2 CAMPANOLOGIST(18) Kerrin McEvoy
17th 16 PROFOUND BEAUTY Patrick Smullen
(21)
18th 1 SHOCKING(23)
Michael Rodd
19th 21 RED RULER(7)
Mark Du Plessis
20th 10 BUCCELLATI(20)
Steven King
21st 22 LINTON(22)
Brett Prebble
22nd 17 ZAVITE(6)
Michael Walker
FF
11 DESCARADO(1)
Nash Rawiller
Src 18 BAUER
Chris Munce
4
3.3L
5.0L
5.5L
6.3L
9.3L
9.4L
10.9L
Peter Ho
55.0
12.1L
Gai Waterhouse
51.5
12.4L
Kenji Nonaka
John Wallace
Michael Moroney
54.5
55.0
54.0
12.7L
13.5L
15.2L
Danny OʼBrien
54.0
18.0L
Saeed Bin Suroor
Dermot K Weld
56.0
54.0
18.5L
19.0L
Mark Kavanagh
John Sargent
Tony Noonan
Robert Hickmott
Anthony Cummings
Gai Waterhouse
Luca Cumani
57.0
53.5
54.0
52.0
54.0
54.0
19.1L
20.1L
23.1L
35.1L
47.1L
Ummmmm....I was pretty pleased with the result. Of my six horses selected apart from
running 1st and 2nd I can say proudly say that four of my horses ran in the first six places.
Not perfect....but not bad!
After the 2011 Cup, as you may have already seen on www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au
Paul Makin from the Channel 7 Adelaide South Australia wrote: “He's done it again! But
hey...what's new? Picking the French horse (Americain) in 2010 was a stroke of genius. While
everybody and their dog wants to tip you the winner of the Cup it's only Max who can actually
pull off the feat year after year. Max...we are in awe of you.”
The ‘learning’ from the lead up events
Part of the secret to my success, in being able to narrow down the Melbourne Cup field each
year, is the amount of time I spend in research each year. I really do research the Melbourne
Cup all year round. And I certainly look very closely at all the
‘lead up‘ events. Hence, I believe the winner of the 2011
Melbourne Cup will more than likely have either run a place or run
a ‘very good race’ in one of the lead up races listed in this eBook.
Example #1: The winner of the 2010 Melbourne Cup - Americain
- ran an outstanding race in the Geelong Cup which is run about a
week before the Melbourne Cup. This was the performance that
lead me to believe Americain could beat the ‘hot’ favourite trained
by Bart Cummings - So You Think. I said so in a Television
interview with Susie Eleman and Bianca Dye on Cup Day 2010.
See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIzzQ26rCPU
Example #2: The winner of the 2009 Melbourne Cup - Shocking - ran in and won the Lexus
Stakes on the Saturday before the 2009 Cup. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=yQpjhzZJ1F0 I was at Flemington that day and watched this very impressive performance.
Up until this time I did not think I would be including Shocking in my selections...but that run
changed my mind. And this is another reason why I wait until Cup day morning before giving
my final selections.
Example #3: In 2006 the 1st and 2nd place getters in the Melbourne Cup ran excellent ‘trials’
in the Caulfield Cup. I am referring to the Japanese horses Delta Blues and Pop Rock who
finished 3rd and a close 7th in the Caulfield Cup.
Example #4: In my 2005 eBook I noted Makybe Diva won the Turnbull Stakes. I wrote
“Makybe Diva easily accounted for First Charter who led for much of the trip. Lad Of The
Manor, Grey Song, Sir Dex, and Plastered were well on the pace. Makybe Diva was
lobbing along 15 lengths at the rear of the field. That is, until they turned for home. Then
Makybe Diva’s replacement jockey Stephen King ‘pressed the start button’ and Makybe Diva
went woosshhhhh and won easily. WOW! It was one heck of a run. The field of 16 boasted
several Group 1 winners and the race was considered to be a strong pointer to the chances of
many in the top events of the Melbourne Spring Carnival.”
And, in this section in my 2005 e-book I noted that On A Jeune won the Geelong Cup. (…and
went on to run 2nd in the 2005 Melbourne Cup)
As well, in my 2005 eBook I noted the winner of the Kelt Capital Stakes in New Zealand was
Xcellent. I wrote “Xcellent was a long last coming to the turn and then showed an incredible
turn of speed to win easily. WOW! The Kiwi’s will put a fortune on this horse in the Melbourne
Cup. (…and with good reason!)”
Of course you know that Makybe Diva won the 2005 Melbourne Cup, On a Jeune ran 2nd and
Xcellent was 3rd.
5
Cup history and stories
There are a never ending stream of anecdotal stories
associated with the Melbourne Cup. Each year I like
to include several of these for your reading pleasure.
1939: Jockey rode two horses in the Cup. That
year the Cup winner, Rivette, was ridden by Teddy
Preston. Ortelle Star was ridden by Frank de Valle.
Down the River side of the course Ortelle Star
stumbled and dislodged jockey de Valle. Rivette took
the lead on the home turn and looked a winner. But
the crowd hushed as Ortelle Star made a charge along
the rails. Preston sensed the danger a riderless horse
could cause in a field of galloping horses. So, quick
thinking Preston pocketed Ortelle Star on the rails. And
all the way down the straight Teddy could be heard calling out “Steady Star, Steady Star.”
Ortelle Star actually crossed the line ahead of Rivette.
Two in a row: It is difficult to win back to back Cups. Archer won the first two Melbourne
Cups in 1861 and 1862. But it was 109 years before Rain Lover repeated the feat in winning
in 1968 and 1969. Five years later Think Big also was up to the task when he won in 1974
and 1975. But then it took another 29 years to find a horse able to achieve the same result.
And I am talking about Makybe Dive who not only won back to back Cups in 2003 and 2004
but added an unprecedented third win in 2005. And so you ask can the 2010 winner
Americain win back to back Cup? Well, you have to say that history is against him doing it!
At my Blog, which you will find at www.TheMelbourneCup.Wordpress.com, there are many
more stories about the Melbourne Cup. Perhaps you have a story you would like to share that
we can include in next year’s eBook. The beauty of a Blog (as against a web site) is it allows
you to make comments about the posts that are already there. And, if you choose, you can
include your own Melbourne Cup story or favourite Melbourne Cup memory.
The lead up events in 2011
Lead up event - The Perth Cup - 1st January 2011
2400 Metres –Group 2
1st Guest Wing
2nd Gunyo
3rd Simply Adorable 4th Western Jewel
The Perth Cup was formerly run over 3200 metres but was reduced to 2400 metres in 2009.
Long shot Guest Wing won the 2011 Perth Cup at Ascot in a tight finish just edging out 2009
winner Guyno in second. Guest Wing paid $27.70 for the win.
The 2009 Perth Cup winner Guyno looked to be the horse to beat in the run to the line, finishing
very strongly, but it was roughie Guest Wing with jockey Brad Parnham who went with Guyno and
was too strong to win by a neck. Simply Adorable was third while second favourite Western Jewel
was fourth. Favourite Ranger had no luck and finished back in the field.
Watch the race: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSpJ3U_ofXg
6
Lead up event - City of Auckland Cup - Ellerslie NZ - 1st January 2011
2400 metres Group 2 Open Handicap
1st
Showcause (D Bradley) 2nd Cassini (S Spratt) 3rd Red Ruler (M Du Plessis)
Time: 2.31.64
Showcause was caught wide early in the $100,000 feature but Daryl Bradley eased him forward
until he was fourth, one off the fence, with 1000 metres to go.He got to the lead soon after
straightening and fought hard down the straight to deny Cassini and topweight Red Ruler, who was
conceding 5.5kg to the first two.
Watch the race at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4N8w0Z_dhHA
Lead up event - The Wellington Cup - Trenham NZ - 29th January 2011
2410 metres - Group 2 - Open Handicap -
1st Spiro (K Smith)
2nd Six O'Clock News (L Innes) 3nd Loose Change (J
Collett)
Time: 2.28.84
Thirty-to-one shot Spiro stunned punters with a gutsy run down the straight to
capture the group two Wellington Cup over 2400 metres at Trentham. Carrying
53kg and ridden by unfashionable jockey Kane Smith, the five-year-old hit the
front as the field straightened for the run to the line and put a one-length
break on the others.
Running at full stretch, ears pricked, Spiro looked a sitting duck for the
challengers as they came at him but held them all out. In the last 100m
veteran Six O'Clock News and Loose Change charged at Spiro but he wouldn't
give in, maintaining his one-length margin at the finish. Six O'Clock News just
edged Loose Change to take second.
The Wellington Cup was New Zealand's premier two-mile race for more than a
century but was controversially cut back to 2400m and downgraded to group
two a couple of years ago, robbing it of much of its glamour.
The race was run in the rain and none of the top favourites showed up in what
was an average field.
Spiro, a gelded son of Pyrus out of a Blues Traveller mare, finished well for
sixth in the Marton Cup two weeks ago in his last cup warmup. He has now
won seven of his 29 starts.
Watch the race: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSOsRVvbF_s
7
Lead up event – The Dunedin Gold Cup - NZ - 5th February 2011
2400 Metres - Open handicap
1st
Borninthestates (L Allpress) 2nd Trilogy (D Stackhouse) 3rd Biman (T Moseley)
Time: 2.32.85
Borninthestates (NZ) won his second Listed Dunedin Casino Gold Cup (2400m) at Wingatui. The
Michael Pitman-trained eight-year-old won the same race in 2008 and was runner up in 2009. This
was the gelding’s third win at stakes level, having won the Listed Otago Guineas in 2005. In the
hands of jockey Lisa Allpress, Borninthestates (NZ) held a half-head in front of Trilogy (NZ)
(Generous) at the line and Biman (NZ) (Colombia) was a further half-head away in third place.
Watch the race: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKFW_g9uTcQ
Lead up event –Auckland Cup at Ellerslie – 9th March 2011
3200 metres - Group 1 - Open Handicap
1st Titch (O Bosson) 2nd
Time: 3.21.96
Showcause (D Bradley)
3rd Castle Heights (L Allpress)
SIX-YEAR-OLD stayer Titch scooted clear of the field in the run for home to win the $NZ1
million Auckland Cup over 2m at Ellerslie on Wednesday. On a dead track he scored by oneand-three-quarter lengths from the favourite Showcause with Castle Heights a long neck away
third. Showcause beat Titch into second place in the New Zealand Cup (3200m) at Riccarton in
November but could not peg him back this time.
The Kevin Myers-trained Titch lobbed along midfield most of the way and joined in as the 17
runners streamed around the final bend. He pulled out of the pack halfway down the straight
and nothing could match his finishing run. Showcause came from well back to get into it at the
turn but couldn't match Titch despite a 1.5kg pull in the weights.
Watch the race at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXMoa_sJ64Y
Lead up event - The Skycity Adelaide Cup – 14th March 2011
3200 metres – Group 2
1st Muir 2nd Saddler’s Story
3rd Macedonian 4th Olympic Win
Lloyd Williams’ imported five year old stayer Muir claimed a career-high victory in the Group
Two Adelaide Cup at Morphettville. One of a group of European stayers purchased from
Coolmore by Lloyd Williams, Muir was previously in the care of Aidan O’Brien in Ireland where
he won three races.
Veteran jockey Darren Gauci was given the task of guiding Muir in the Adelaide Cup and took
charge of the race from the outset. He rated Muir ($21) perfectly in front and the gelding held
off Saddler’s Story ($21) by a long neck with half a length to Macedonian ($4.20) third.
Watch the race:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEY64rCQemU
8
Lead up event - The BMW Stakes – Rosehill NSW - 2nd April 2011
2400 metres - Group 1
1st
Cedarberg
2nd
Mourayan
3rd Linton
Cedarberg has claimed an upset victory in the 2011 The BMW on Rosehill Garden’s Golden
Slipper Day.The four-year-old gelding won the $2.25 million The BMW by an astounding one and
a half lengths.This is the Helenus gelding’s first Stakes level victory, after he was beaten by a
whisker in the $300,000 Listed Mornington Cup by Guyno on February 16, 2011.
The 2011 The BMW began with a jostle for the early lead, which was eventually taken by
Mourayan who led the field by two lengths until they rounded the home turn and Cedarberg began
to move through the pack.The rest of the 2011 The BMW field was unable to keep up with the
lightning fast Cedarberg as he dashed to victory.
Cedarberg, who had previously accrued almost $250,000 in prize money across his 14 starts, earned
his connections a first prize of $1.23 million for his effort. The Pat Carey-trained four-year-old was
not well fancied in the betting, and paid massive odds of $27.30 for the win. .
Mourayan proved his is a true staying ability, hanging on for second, while the talented Linton ran
on to finish third. The race favourites, Descarado and Maluckyday, were nowhere to be seen in the
finish, both having disappointing runs. Descarado started a $2.90 favourite.
Listen to the race: http://www.skyracing.com.au/media/playerv2.php?vxChannel=Audio
%20Replay&vxClipId=2611_20110402ROSR05&checklogin=TRUE
Lead up event – AJC Australian Derby –Randwick NSW - 9th April 2011
2400 Metres - Group 1
1st Shamrocker
2nd Retrieve
3rd Anacheeva
Shamrocker has become the first filly in 22 years to win the Group 1 AJC Australian Derby
(2400m) at Randwick Racecourse. The classy three-year-old won the $1.5 million race by a
length and a quarter ahead of second place finisher Retrieve and third-place-getter
Anacheeva.
Retrieve put in a gallant run down the home straight but it wasn’t enough to beat Shamrocker,
who put her neck in front and never looked back.The last filly to win an AJC Australian Derby
was Research back in 1989, and Shamrocker showed the boys that she had the goods to
finish on top.
Trainer Danny O’Brien feels that this distance is best suited to Shamrocker’s ability.“I think
you really saw the best of her here over the 2,400,” O’Brien said after the race.
O’Brien said he was looking forward towards a possible Melbourne Cup start come the Spring
Carnival.“She’s just done a double that no one else has done the (Australian) Guineas and the
(AJC Australian) Derby. She loves Flemington and I’ve got no reason to think she can’t run the
two miles.”
9
Jockey Glen Boss has now ridden Shamrocker to four victories from just five rides.“Gee she
was good to me today this filly,” Boss said.“This is an absolute thrill, on my favourite track in
front of my favourite people. ”Boss was confident that Shamrocker would perform in the AJC
Australian Derby after having had the chance to ride her in trackwork earlier in the week.“I
was extremely confident after riding trackwork.” he said.
Note: The AJC Australian Derby is a Group 1 race for three-year-olds that takes place each
April at Randwick racecourse in Sydney, New South Wales.The classic race is run over a
distance of 2400 metres under set weight conditions and is worth $1,300,000 in prizemoney.
See the race: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdVkRRu01u4&feature=related
Lead up event - The Sydney Cup – Randwick NSW - 23rd April 2011
3200 metres - Group 1
1st Stand To Gain 2nd Older Than Time 3rd Solid Billing
4th C’est le Guerre
The Chris Waller trained Stand To Gain won the 2011 Sydney Cup at Randwick racecourse
ahead of the fast finishing Older Than Time and race leader Solid Billing who stuck on well to
run third.
The race marred by the falls of Hawk Island, ridden by Glyn Schofield, and Kerrin McEvoy’s
mount Tinseltown at the 600 metres, Rod Quinn enjoyed a lucky pick-up ride to guide Stand To
Gain to a gritty victory.
The five-year-old, who last start was only 10th to Cup rival Once Were Wild in the Chairman’s
Handicap (2600m) two weeks before the Sydney Cup settled midfield but was poised to strike
at the top of the straight. He took the lead over the rise but was soon under threat as C’est La
Guerre began a charge down the middle of the track.
But Stand To Gain dug deep and fought on strongly to the finish of the 3200 Group One
feature to beat Older Than Time and Solid Billing.
Waller, who earlier won the Queen Elizabeth Stakes with My Kingdom Of Fife, said Stand To
Gain was a superior wet-track horse. “We knew we needed it wet,” he said. “It’s a great thrill,
we’ve got a two-mile (3200m) Group One winner” said Waller.
Listen to the race: http://www.skyracing.com.au/media/playerv2.php?vxChannel=Audio
%20Replay&vxClipId=2611_20110423RANR06&checklogin=TRUE
10
Lead up event - Brisbane Cup QLD – 11th June 2011
2400 metres - Group 2
1st Tullamore
2nd
Glass Harmonium 3rd De Fine Lago
4th Ironstein
Champion jockey Chris Munce bagged his fifth Brisbane Cup victory and his second in as many
years at Eagle Farm with emerging stayer Tullamore upsetting race favourite Glass
Harmonium.
Prepared by Gai Waterhouse in Sydney, Savabeel four-year-old Tullamore was given a gun run
from Munce in the $300,000 Group 2 Brisbane Cup (2400m).
Odds-on favourite for the 2011 Brisbane Cup on Stradbroke Handicap Day was Michael
Moroney’s in-form European import Glass Harmonium.
After breaking their Aussie maiden with an impressive win in the Group 2 Eagle Farm Cup
(2200m), Glass Harmonium was again ridden by New Zealand-born hoop Lisa Cropp but
couldn’t produce the same stay-all-the-way performance backing up today.
The favourite was found out in the Brisbane Cup, Glass Harmonium outstayed by a too-good
winner on the line. Tullamore and Glass Harmonium both jumped away well from their
respective Brisbane Cup barriers fighting for the early lead. Upon settling, it was the big grey
Glass Harmonium who rolled off into the lead, Cropp trying to recreate the run that saw them
secure victory at the same track just seven days earlier.
Munce allowed Tullamore to settle back third on the inside of the favourite, giving the eventual
winner a lovely, non gut-busting ride.Once on the home straight, Munce bought Tullamore up
off the fence to challenge the leader, and challenge they did.
Disallowing Glass Harmonium to have an easy run out in front, Tullamore proved a dour stayer
and a top class competitor over their pet distance of 2400m.In a thrilling finish over the final
few hundred metres, Tullamore matched Glass Harmonium stride-for-stride, the duo making
the Brisbane Cup into a two horse affair.
Having held up to two lengths on the field earlier, Glass Harmonium’s lead was quickly chewed
up by a gallant Tullamore who just kept coming. Eventually Tullamore showed they had kept
just that bit more in the tank, pushing forward in the final stride to narrowly defeat Glass
Harmonium.
Note: In 2007 The Brisbane Cup was shortened from 3200m to 2400m for the first time. In
2008 this race was won by Viewed who went on to win the 2008 Melbourne Cup. Viewed was
ridden by Damien Oliver starting at $3.40 and justified its’ favouritism by strolling home to win
the 2400m Group 2 race by seven lengths on a wet track.
Listen to the race: http://www.skyracing.com.au/media/playerv2.php?vxChannel=Audio
%20Replay&vxClipId=2611_20110611EAFR04&checklogin=TRUE
11
Lead up event – Gold Cup – Ascot - England
16th June 2011
4023 metres - Group 1
1st Fame and Glory
4th Manighar
2nd Opinion Poll
5th Askar Tau
3rd
Brigantin
Fame And Glory outclassed a good collection of stayers in winning this Gold Cup by three
lengths in soft ground. His acceleration turning for home set him apart from his rivals, and he
quickly drew away to win with a little up his sleeve.
Godolphin’s Opinion Poll made up considerable ground for second, with a gap of four-and-ahalf lengths back to French-trained Brigantin, who finished an honourable third, just ahead of
Manighar and Askar Tau.
Prior to the race, it had been a question of whether Fame And Glory could stay the two and a
half miles in the conditions. This he did, however, with an impressive display, much to the
delight of those punters, who followed the sustained gamble that started in the morning and
saw the five-year-old sent out the 11-8 favourite.
Watch the race:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdIOA_6fWOo
Lead up event - Liston Stakes - Caulfield - 13th August 2011
1400 metres - Group 2
1st Whobegotyou
2nd Lights Of Heaven
3rd Prince Obama
Whobegotyou won the 2011 JJ Liston Stakes run at Caulfield Racecourse. The six-year-old
gelding came from behind to win the JJ Liston Stakes 2011 by almost half a length ahead of
second place-getter Lights Of Heaven and third place-getter Prince Obama.
The JJ Liston Stakes this year had its name changed to the PB Lawrence Stakes.
Trainer Mark Kavanagh is confident that this impressive win spells a 2011 Cox Plate success
in October at Moonee Valley Racecourse in Melbourne for Whobegotyou.“He’s a bit bigger and
burlier this year but there’s no So You Thinks or More Joyous’s in it this year either,” he said.
“So, you know, he’s around the mark and certainly he’s going to win his share of races through
the spring at weight-for-age.”
Peter Moody’s Lights Of Heaven did not claim victory for the first time in her five-start
career.“(Whobegotyou) had the momentum and Lights Of Heaven was held up but he’s won
fair and square,” Kavanagh said.
“He probably arrived a little earlier than I wanted to but he’s a real chaser this horse.
“When he got to the front he thought the job was done and really put the brakes on.”.
Whobegotyou will now head to Moonee Valley after his JJ Liston Stakes win.“He’ll have his next
start in a month at the Valley and we’ll see where we go from there,” Kavanagh said.
“This will bring him right on now and there is no reason to race him every week. He’ll be
peaking in October. He could run in the Underwood or the Yalumba before the Cox Plate but
he’ll tell us when he’s needs a race. This is his fourth spring carnival at the absolute top level
and I want to choose the right races for him and run him when he’s right.”
Listen to the race: http://www.skyracing.com.au/media/playerv2.php?vxChannel=Audio
%20Replay&vxClipId=2611_20110813CAUR06&checklogin=TRUE
12
Lead up event – Memsie Stakes - Caulfield VIC - 28th August 2011
1400 Metres Group 2 WFA
1st Kings Rose
4th Rekindled Interest
2nd Heart of Dreams
5rd Absolutely
3rd Red Colossus
6th Precedence
Multiple New Zealand Group winner King's Rose (NZ) has tasted success at her first Australian
start by taking out the $200,000, Group 2, NZ Bloodstock Memsie Stakes (1400m) at
Caulfield.
Resuming after a lengthy spell and having her first start for leading trainer Peter Moody, King's
Rose managed to find herself in an ideal midfield position during the run as she tracked well
backed favourite Heart Of Dreams.
The pair were quick to make their presence felt on straightening and it was King's Rose who
saluted in a grinding finish over the consistent Heart Of Dreams.
“I think she is a high quality mare,” trainer Peter Moody said. “Her work has been very good at
home and we've been very impressed with her. The barrier was the tricky thing but once again
Luke [Nolen] just got her into a lovely spot and once she was on the back of Heart Of Dreams
I thought she was going to be very hard to beat.”
“There will be good improvement. I think she peaked on her run the last 100m, she was
probably going to win it a bit softer than she ended up winning it. “Placed to advantage she is
going to have a nice spring.”
The Group Two Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley in a fortnight's time is
expected to be the mares next start as Moody attempts to get a better line on the four-yearold.
“We are pretty happy with where we are headed with this mare,” Moody said. “Where that
might be I am not 100% sure but I will probably take her to the valley for the Dato Tan Chin
Nam over a mile and that race will guide me to where we go.
“Looking at her videos I think she is probably a mile to a mile-and-a-quarter filly [mare], I'm
not convinced she is a mile and a halfer. She failed to stay in the Oaks albeit that was at the
end of a long campaign. We'll stay open minded but at this stage up to a mile-and-a-quarter I
think she will be competitive in anything.”
Listen to the race: http://www.skyracing.com.au/media/playerv2.php?vxChannel=Audio
%20Replay&vxClipId=2611_20110827CAUR06&checklogin=TRUE
13
Lead up event – Makybe Diva Stakes - Flemington VIC - 3rd September 2011
1600 metres (previously Craiglee Stakes) – Group 2 WFA
1st Littorio
4th Playing God
2nd Glass Harmonium
5th Lights of Heaven
3rd Midas Touch
6th At First Sight
Littorio won the $300,000 Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at Flemington on Saturday
the 3rd of September..
“A lot of hard work's gone into this horse over the last 12 months and for him to return like he
has done today is unbelievable. No one gave him a chance but his previous form was as good
as any horse in the field” said trainer Blackiston.
The seven-year-old son of Bellotto backed up an impressive trial early last month to confirm he
was over the suspensory injury and infected leg that had kept him off the track since last April.
The former Turnbull Stakes and BMW winner settled last and remained there at the 300m
before thundering past every one of his rivals down the outside of the Flemington straight.
The $41 chance scored by a length from the Mike Moroney-trained import Glass Harmonium
($5), who was brave over the final furlong after hitting the front early in the straight, with
Robert Hickmott's Midas Touch ($81) running a much-improved race to be a half-head back in
third.
Lights Of Heaven ($1.85 fav) was given a dream ride midfield one off the fence by Luke Nolen
and was produced at the top of the straight but battled into fifth, one spot behind Playing God
($6.50), who trailed Lights Of Heaven and looked the winner at the 300m but lacked the sprint
of Littorio.
“If he's clean in the legs we push on and I think he could make a Cox Plate horse,” Blackiston
said.
Note: In 2007 The VRC announced that the Club’s premier Group 2 event, the $502,000
weight-for-age Craiglee Stakes would, from 2007, be re-named the Makybe Diva Stakes. Race
Distance 1600m.
Listen to the race: http://www.skyracing.com.au/media/playerv2.php?vxChannel=Audio
%20Replay&vxClipId=2611_20110903FLER06&checklogin=TRUE
14
Lead up event – Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes – 10th September 2011
1600 metres
Group 2
1st Rekindled Interest
4th Unusual Suspect
WFA Moonee Valley VIC
2nd Alcopop
5th Red Colossus
3rd Whobegotyou
6th Linton
Rekindled Interest locked in a Cox Plate mission as he emerged victorious in the Dato Tan Chin
Nam Stakes.While Rekindled Interest reproduced the form that won him last year's AAMI Vase,
odds-on favourite Whobegotyou was the victim of a muddling-run race and consequently
unable to gain a run and momentum when it mattered most.
Whobegotyou, a drifter from $1.50 to $1.65, was consigned to third, 1 3/4 lengths behind
Rekindled Interest in his unsuccessful bid to become the first horse since Shorengro in
1968-70 to win the race three successive times.
Rekindled Interest, $7, swooped over the top of his rivals to post a one length win from
Alcopop, $15, with three-quarters of a length to Whobegotyou.
Note: In 2007 Efficient stormed home to run fourth in this race. This was regarded by good
judges as an excellent trial for the Melbourne Cup.
Listen to the race: http://www.tab.com.au/Racing/Information/Results/
DisplayDetailedView.aspx?
State=2&MeetingCode=M&RacingCode=R&FromDate=2011-09-10T00%3a00%3a00&RaceNum
ber=07
Lead up event - Irish St Leger at The Curragh - Ireland - 10th September 2011
1 ¾ miles - Group 1
1st (Dead Heat for 1st) Duncan & Jukebox Jury
3rd Red Cadeaux
4th Fame & Glory
The Group 1 Irish Field St. Leger at the Curragh was a thrilling duel down the strait that saw
Duncan (GB) and Jukebox Jury (IRE) finish in a dead-heat. The Mark Johnston-trained Jukebox
Jury (4-1) set a strong gallop up front throughout, despite racing into a fierce headwind.
Johnny Murtagh began to wind up the pace three furlongs out and it was all too much for the
odds-on favourite Fame And Glory who was very disappointing and quickly dropped away.
Duncan looked all set to claim the honours as he cruised up under Eddie Ahern but in typical
fashion for a Johnston-trained horse, Jukebox Jury just would not be denied and the pair raced
stride for stride before passing the post together.
Watch the race:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR7Q2mJqFvk
15
Lead up event - Underwood Stakes - Caulfield - 17th September 2011
1800 metres - Group 1
1st Lion Tamer
4th Glass Harmonium
2nd Southern Speed
5th Playing God
3rd Midas Touch
6th Heart Of Dreams
New Zealander came Lion Tamer rocketed into Melbourne Cup favouritism with a barnstorming
victory in the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield. Ridden by Michael Rodd, the 2010 Victoria
Derby winner was sent out at $16 and mowed down Adelaide mare Southern Speed ($31) in
the straight to score a comfortable 1-1/4 length win with import Midas Touch ($9) a half-neck
away third. Lion Tamer and Saturday's Naturalism Stakes winner December Draw are now
equal top picks in the Melbourne Cup at $9.
Note: In the past ‘The Underwood’ has been a good form guide for the Melbourne Spring
carnival. The winners in 2002 (Northerly), Mummify (2003) and Elvestrom (2004) went on
the win the Caulfield Cup about a month later. So far, since the first Underwood Stakes was
run in 1924, nine horses have completed the Underwood – Caulfield Cup double. As well, Sky
Heights (1999) and Paris Lane (1991) both ran 2nd in the Underwood before going on to win
the Caulfield Cup.
However only three Underwood Stakes winners, Jeune (1994) Rain Lover (1969) and Hallmark
(1933) are the only ones to go on to win the Melbourne Cup in the same year. But…..three
recent Melbourne Cup winners Jezabeel (1998), Subzero in (1992) and At Talaq (1986) all
finished 2nd in the Underwood.
Usually ‘horses’ win the Underwood. The last ‘mare’ to win it was Tristarc in 1985. In 2007
Miss Finland and Marasco were ‘expected’ to fight out the finish. Rubiscent, the winner, was a
40/1 outsider.
Hear the race: http://www.skyracing.com.au/media/playerv2.php?vxChannel=Audio
%20Replay&vxClipId=2611_20110917CAUR07&checklogin=TRUE
Lead up event - The Metropolitan - Randwick 1st October 2011
2400 Metres - Group 1
1st
4th
The Verminator
Ironstein
2nd
5th
Hawk Island
Red Eye Special
3rd Lamasery
6th Lodge The Deeds
The Metropolitan (2400m) is a traditional lead up to the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.
The last galloper to win the Metropolitan-Caulfield Cup double was Tawqeet in 2006, while the
last horse to win the Metropolitan-Melbourne Cup double was Macdougal all the way back in
1959.
The Verminator won the Group 1 The Metropolitan, on Epsom Handicap Day at Randwick. The
five-year-old gelding raced away down the inside of the final straight to win the race from
second place-getter Hawk Island and third place-getter Lamasery.
The Verminator won the Wyong Cup on September 2 before finishing fifth in the Group 3
Newcastle Gold Cup last start.Trainer Chris Waller achieved the quinella in the 2011 The
Metropolitan with his two talented geldings The Verminator and Hawk Island.
The Verminator has now won seven of his 24 race starts and is nominated for a start in both
the 2011 Caulfield Cup and 2011 Melbourne Cup.
Listen to the race: http://www.skyracing.com.au/media/playerv2.php?vxChannel=Audio
%20Replay&vxClipId=2611_20111001RANR09&checklogin=TRUE
16
Max’s Note: On the 3rd of October I posted this article by Michael Lynch on
my blog: http://themelbournecup.wordpress.com
Incoming stayers have spring riches at mercy
Sydney Morning Herald - Michael Lynch - October 3, 2011
AUSTRALIANS had better get ready to run up the white flag for the big races this spring if the
evidence of the lead-up races, which culminated with yesterday's Group 1 Turnbull Stakes, are
anything to go by.
Mark Kavanagh's progressive six-year-old gelding December Draw continued what has been
a remarkable rise through the ranks by taking the 2000-metre feature narrowly from the Mike
Moroney-trained Glass Harmonium.
The first two home are imports from England, as are several of those set to play leading roles
as the carnival narrative unfolds. The most likely plot changes, if there are any, seem set to be
delivered by several high-class Kiwis intent on plundering the big prizes this side of the
Tasman.
December Draw arrived in this country as a lightly raced horse with potential but not a lot of
achievement. His debut came at Flemington in late autumn when he started at $26 and blitzed
his opposition over 1600 metres, but no one was getting too excited. After all, he was only
rated at 72 by the official handicapper.
Fast forward six months and he is a raging favourite for the Caulfield Cup. His handicap rating
had advanced to 105 before yesterday, and will go up at least another seven points to 112
because of yesterday's efforts. That is an astonishing rate of improvement.
It's a remarkable tribute to the skills of Kavanagh, who has patiently guided the horse through
the grades, although there should be little surprise about that. The former jumps jockey has
shown he knows what is needed at the crunch times of the season, having sent out top-class
winners of races such as the Cox Plate (Maldivian), Melbourne Cup (Shocking) and Myer
Classic and Emirates Stakes (Divine Madonna) during the Melbourne spring.
But the success of these imports also says a lot about the dearth of quality staying horses
being produced in this country.In the Caulfield Cup, December Draw's closest market rivals
are the ex-Irish At First Sight and Midas Touch, both now owned by Lloyd Williams after he
bought them out of Aidan O'Brien's Ballydoyle stables and the impressive New Zealander Lion
Tamer (winner of the group 1 Underwood Stakes at Caulfield last month).
Glass Harmonium, which was a workmate of last year's European middle-distance champion
Harbinger when trained at Newmarket by Sir Michael Stoute, is also close up in the market, as
is Mourayan, a winner of The Bart Cummings at Flemington yesterday. The latter is another
Irish stayer purchased by Williams, this time out of John Oxx's The Curragh stable.
The Sydney-trained My Kingdom Of Fife, owned by Richard Pegum, who also owns
December Draw, is another which has found form with a vengeance since arriving in Australia
as a discard from the Queen's racing stable. He, along with Murray Baker's Lion Tamer and
another highly regarded Kiwi in Jimmy Choux (a winner on Saturday) are prominent in Cox
Plate markets.
17
Pegum, a hedge fund manager who had 10 years in England, has a fair idea of what is needed
to win in Australian conditions. ''I know the horses that will suit Australia,'' he said. ''I am
there on the ground, the others aren't, and I feel a bit closer to it. We thought he had the
potential. I think we feed better than they do, maybe it's the climate.”
''I thought December Draw would stay and go well on the hard tracks in Australia. He's not a
big horse but he's one with a good, relaxed attitude. I like to look at their feet. Every horse I
buy I look at their feet, that's very, very important.''
Max’s Note: A few weeks ago I was at a lunch with Richard Pegum and Mike Willesee. As
well as being an owner of My Kingdom of Fyfe and December Draw, Richard is also involved in
the ownership of Illo - a German horse. And Illo is trained by Bart Cummings and has 53kg in
the 2011 Melbourne Cup. Ummmmm....Well done Richard. Nice position to be in a month out
from the Cup!
Lead up event - Turnbull Stakes - Flemington - 2nd October 2011
2000 metres 4 yr olds and above
1st December Draw
4th Southern Speed
2nd Glass Harmonium
5th Rekindled Interest
3rd Playing God
6th Absolutely
The Turnbull Stakes is rated below the major Group 1 spring races like the Melbourne Cup and
WS Cox Plate but it is held in high esteem and has become a prestigious event on the racing
calendar each year.
The race is the first quality 2000 metre event of the spring and gives staying types a chance to
race over a more suitable middle distance with the upcoming Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup
in mind. The Turnbull Stakes also provides a more than handy lead up race to the Caulfield
Stakes at Caulfield the following week and the Caulfield Cup two weeks later.
The race itself has been a tremendous guide to winners of major spring races and a number of
high class gallopers have managed to win this race. In recent years the Turnbull Stakes has
provided multiple winners of the Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup and WS Cox Plate, and every
year it continues to be a pivotal race for horses contesting the major Group 1 races to come.
The Turnbull Stakes always attracts top class gallopers and is one of the premier middle
distance events of the spring carnival. History says to keep an eye on the Turnbull Stakes.
December Draw (2011) won the Gr3 Naturalism Stakes over 2000m at Caulfield on his way to
scoring in this event and recent Turnbull Stakes winners include Zipping (2010) and Efficient
(2009).
Listen to the race: http://www.skyracing.com.au/media/playerv2.php?vxChannel=Audio
%20Replay&vxClipId=2611_20111002FLER07&checklogin=TRUE
18
Lead up event - Herbert Power Stakes - 8th October 2011
2400m - Group 2 Apprentices cannot claim
1st Shewan
4th Midnight Martini
2nd
5th
Tanby
Anudjawun
3rd Lights of Heaven
6th Bauer
Shewan won the 2011 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield gaining automatic entry into the $6.2
million Melbourne Cup on November 1, 2011.
The Blevic gelding won the race by a head in front of Tanby, who ran second, and Moyenne
Corniche, who finished well for third.
The Robert Smerdon-trained Shewan, has now won five of his 15 race starts and has accrued
more than $240,000 in prize money.
Note: In 1999 Rogan Josh won the Herbert Power before going on to win the Melbourne Cup
beating Central Park with Lahar and Zazabeel who dead heated for 3rd.
Listen to the race: http://www.skyracing.com.au/media/playerv2.php?vxChannel=Audio
%20Replay&vxClipId=2611_20111008CAUR03&checklogin=TRUE
Lead up event - NZB Caulfield Stakes - Caulfield - 8th October 2011
2000m - Group 1 3 yr old and upwards
1st
4th
Descarado
Mighty High
2nd Avienus
5th Sincero
3rd Lights of Heaven
6th Playing God
Descarado saluted the judge in the Caulfield Stakes winning by a length from Avienus with 1
length to Lights Of Heaven third. Melbourne Cup favourite failed badly and trainer Murray
Baker said Lion Tamer didn't "put in".
Bookmakers might be uncertain about the Cox Plate credentials of Caulfield Stakes winner
Descarado, but Gai Waterhouse is not. Asked if Descarado could win the Cox Plate, Waterhouse
told the Herald Sun: "Of course he can".
New Zealander Lion Tamer's Cox Plate's odds blew out from $6 to $11 after he finished second
last with only Alcopop faring worse.
Nash Rawiller praised Waterhouse for turning around Descarado's fortunes to add a second
Group One at Caulfield, a week shy of a year after he won the Caulfield Cup.
Jockey Michael Rodd said Lion Tamer "fell out of the gates", was off the bridle throughout and
showed little zest for the race.
Note: Jeune (1994) and Etherial (2001) placed in the Caulfield Stakes (then called Yalumba
Stakes) prior to going on to win the Melbourne Cup.
Watch the race: http://www.skyracing.com.au/media/playerv2.php?vxChannel=Audio
%20Replay&vxClipId=2611_20111008CAUR05&checklogin=TRUE
19
Lead up event – The Caulfield Cup - VIC - 15th October 2011
2400 metres Group 1
The Caulfield Cup is the world’s richest 2400-metre handicap. Top
judges have often said the Caulfield Cup is ‘best guide’ to the
Melbourne Cup. Hence I am including the entire field as well as the
entire placings.
The field:
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Last 10
Horse
Jockey
72132331-3 MIGHTY HIGH(1)
Darren
4
Beadman
1004461313DRUNKEN SAILOR Dwayne Dunn
(18) (BLKS)
552573-348 MANIGHAR(5)
Damien Oliver
4
32936215-4 UNUSUAL
Nash Rawiller
0 SUSPECT(7)
9-1111-4215 LUCAS CRANACH Corey Brown
(3)
1318-025-67 PRECEDENCE(20) Steven Arnold
0
413410-602 HAWK ISLAND(14) Glyn Schofield
2
9031141002SHOOTOFF(16)
Kerrin McEvoy
(BLKS)
5698-11-211 DECEMBER DRAW Michael Rodd
1 (11)
12534-7555 SAPTAPADI(6)
Mark Zahra
8
2211421838TULLAMORE(15)
Craig Newitt
22-63321-56 ABSOLUTELY(22) Brad Rawiller
6
211255-0061 DREAM PEDLAR
Chris Symons
(19) (BLKS)
21-40121-07 NIWOT(21)
Dean Yendall
2
214109-573 DOMESKY(9)
Brenton
7
Avdulla
111585-8921 GREEN MOON(17) Nicholas Hall
119435-0067 MACEDONIAN(10) Luke Nolen
(BLKS)
11723-00424 SOUTHERN SPEED Craig Williams
(4) (BLKS)
1-20715530 SPECHENKA (EM1) Michael
9 (13)
Walker
31111-5-373 LUCKY EIGHTY
Michelle
9 EIGHT (EM2)(8)
Payne
32322-0044 ANUDJAWUN
Chris Symons
5 (EM3)(12) (BLKS)
16-91115814 MIDNIGHT MARTINI
(EM4)(2)
…and the results were:
20
Wg Trainer
57.0 John Moore
Career Rtg
20-6-4-4 109
56.5 Luca Cumani
40-11-9-4 110
56.5 Luca Cumani
19-6-3-3 110
56.5 Michael Kent
58-9-8-6 110
56.0 Anthony Freedman 9-5-1-0
109
56.0 Bart Cummings
30-6-4-1 108
55.5 Chris Waller
39-10-8-2 109
55.0 Graeme Rogerson
20-4-1-2 104
54.5 Mark Kavanagh
22-8-3-4 112
54.5 Brian Ellison
13-1-2-1 103
54.5 Gai Waterhouse
54.0 Michael Kent
22-5-6-3 101
10-1-3-2 105
53.5 Troy Blacker
44-9-8-6 103
53.5 Michael, Wayne &
John Hawkes
53.0 Michael Kent
20-7-4-1 101
53.0 Robert Hickmott
53.0 Peter G Moody
12-4-1-0 95
26-5-1-4 95
52.5 Leon Macdonald &
Andrew Gluyas
53.0 Ben Ahrens
11-3-2-1 105
52.5 Mathew Ellerton &
Simon Zahra
52.5 Shaun Dwyer
18-6-2-3 98
52.5 Mark Kavanagh
11-5-1-0 89
16-2-3-4 94
33-11-3-1 92
17-1-5-4 89
2011 BMW Caulfield Cup - Results
Note: My thanks to Andrew Bryant from
www.AndrewHawkinsRacing.Wordpress.com for the
assessment of the performance of the top six horses in the Caulfield Cup.
For a complete analysis of how all of the 18 runners performed in the 2011 Caulfield Cup go
to: http://themelbournecup.wordpress.com/2011/10/15/how-your-horse-performed-inthe-2011-caulfield-cup/
1st. Southern Speed
TRAINER L McDonald
JOCKEY C Williams
All honours with her. The lightweight hope of the field, she used her draw to advantage,
running fourth on the inside. A good chance she’ll back up in the Cox Plate, and she’ll be a
definite prospect there. She’s not in the Melbourne Cup, so there will be no winner of the Cups
double this year!
2nd. Green Moon TRAINER
R Hickmont
JOCKEY N Hall
How huge was his run? Three wide no cover the entirety, and yet he still had the temerity to
find the line. I do think he is best suited racing outside of runners, but it was a similar run to
what eventual Melbourne Cup winner Delta Blues produced in 2006. I expect, if he makes the
field, he’ll have his admirers.
3rd. Tullamore TRAINER G Waterhouse
JOCKEY C Newitt
He was shuffled further back than anticipated, but he found the line nicely enough. He was
made to work early which possibly told late. Still, he never looked like he was a winning
chance.
4th. Manighar
TRAINER
L Cumani
JOCKEY D Oliver
Looked like he was going to burst through along the inside at the 200m mark but couldn’t
match the sprint of the top three. It was a nice run looking to Flemington. I definitely think a
dead track would suit him for the Melbourne Cup.
5th. Lucas Cranach
TRAINER A Freedman
JOCKEY
C Brown
His problems have been well documented, and he pulled up slightly lame after the race, but I
think Lucas Cranach demonstrated that he has a big future ahead of him in Australia. He came
from near the rear to almost strike the front turning for home, he looked a danger on the point
of the turn but he died on his run slightly. I think it was a good run given his problems this
week. On track for the Melbourne Cup.
6th. Unusual Suspect
TRAINER M Kent
JOCKEY N Rawiller
Here was the runner with the flashing light on top of his head. Connections had advised
stewards before the race they wanted him to go forward, but he seemed to struggle to keep up
and was fourth last for most of the race. He was still third last on the turn! But Rawiller wove a
passage through and he hit the line as well as anything. Sure to have support at Flemington.
Watch the race:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmGbu_Wk5_Q
21
Note:
The last winner of the Caulfield Cup that went on to win the Melbourne Cup in the
same year was Let’s Elope in 2001. Prior to that Might and Power did it in 1997. Prior to that
you have to go back to 1982 when Gurners Lane won both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.
Hence winning the Caulfield Cup Cup is no guarantee of winning the Melbourne Cup. The
reason it is such a ‘good guide’ is that it may give an indication of horses that are capable of
‘running on’ and stepping up from the 2400 metres of the Caulfield Cup to the 3200 metres of
the Melbourne Cup. It is certainly not going to happen in 2011 as the mare, Southern Speed,
is not entered in the 2011 Melbourne Cup. But you might make a note to watch out for her
next year!
Makybe Diva ran 2nd in the Caulfield Cup in 2004 and went on to win the Cup that year also.
Doriemus won the Caulfield Cup in 1995 and then ran 3rd in the 1995 Melbourne Cup. Both
Delta Blues and Pop Rock just missed places in the 2006 Caulfield Cup before running 1st and
2nd in the 2006 Melbourne Cup.
Note: There are additional ‘lead up’ events in the two weeks leading up to the Melbourne Cup.
You need be aware of these races as they often provide excellent guide lines for the Melbourne
Cup. These races are:
The Geelong Cup will be run on the Wednesday 19th of October 2011. It is a Group 3
race run over 2400 metres. This race has some interesting history as a lead in race to the
Melbourne Cup. In the 1984 Geelong Cup (Chagemar and Black Knight) ran 1st and 2nd and
reversed the order in the Melbourne Cup that year. In 1985 Koiro Corrie May won the Geelong
Cup and was narrowly beaten by What A Nuisance in the Melbourne Cup. Tripsacum was third
in both races. Mr Brooker won at Geelong in 1990 and then ran third to Kingston Rule in the
fastest ever Melbourne Cup.
Media Puzzle claimed the double in 2002. Often one of the Melbourne Cup placegetters has
advanced through the Geelong Cup. Dermott Weld, with Vintage Crop and Media Puzzle,
showed that horses trained in the northern hemisphere could win the Melbourne Cup. Zazzman
won the Geelong Cup in 2003 and then went on to run 3rd to Makybe Diva in 2004. In 2005
On a Jeune won the Geelong Cup and then went on to run 2nd Makybe Diva in the 2005
Melbourne Cup. In 2008 the Geelong Cup was won by Bauer. In the 2008 Melbourne Cup Bauer
was defeated ‘by a whisker’ by Bart Cummings’ horse Viewed. And Americain won the Geelong
Cup in 2010 before going on to win the 2010 Melbourne Cup.
The Cox Plate – To be run on Saturday the 22th of October 2011 is another lead up race
that can provide more useful information about which horse will win the Melbourne Cup. In
2005 Makybe Diva ran in this race and then went on to win the Melbourne Cup. So You Think
won the 2010 Cox Plate and was then touted as being unbeatable in the Melbourne Cup, in
which he ran 3rd.
The Cathay Pacific Airways Cup at Moonee Valley will be run on Saturday the 22rd of October
2010. This is the same day the Cox Plate is to be run. (see above). For the ‘omen punters’ perhaps
there is an omen here. The last horse to win the Mooney Valley Gold Cup and then win the
Melbourne Cup was Yippyio in 2000. And it was 11 years before that Kingston Rule did the same
thing in 1990!
The Bendigo Cup will be run on Wednesday 26th of October, 2011. The Bendigo Cup now
provides another good lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup. For 2011 and 2012 the race will be
run over 2400m rather than 2200m of the past. It really is ‘yet another chance’ for horses still
trying to ‘qualify’ to take their place in the 2011 Melbourne Cup.
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The Saab Quality Handicap (used to be called the Hotham Handicap) of 2500 metres will
be run on Saturday 29th of October 2011. It is the last race over a distance longer than
2000m to be held under handicap conditons before the running of the Melbourne Cup. The
Saab is a good event to give horses a final hit out before contesting the 3200 metres of the
Melbourne Cup. It tends to be taken out by handy staying types rather than the upper echelon.
The Saab Quality has been a ‘moderate guide’ over the past twenty years. However, Shocking,
in 2009 won the Saab impressively before going on to win the Melbourne Cup. Maybe Better
won the race in 2006 before running 3rd to Delta Blues in the Melbourne Cup. Brew won both
the Saab and the Melbourne Cup in 2000.
The Victorian Derby will also be run on Saturday the 29th of October 2011. The winner of the
Victorian Derby is given the option of automatic entry into the Melbourne Cup provided a late
fee entry of $65,000 is paid. In 2006 the connections of the Victorian Derby – Efficient decided to pay the fee. (I don’t suppose that’s all that surprising as the prize money for the
1st place in the Derby was $900,000.)
The Motorola Mckinnon Stakes
is a Group One event that will also be run on Derby Day - the
29th October 2011. It is a weight-for-age event run over a distance of 2000 metres. It can be a form
guide and is sometimes used by trainers to give their horse a final hit out before the running of the
Melbourne Cup. In 2009 Bart Cummings chose to give his 2008 Melbourne Cup winner Viewed a
run in this race. Viewed ran 3rd in this race but only ran 7th in the Cup. And in 1999 Bart
Cummings chose to run Rogan Josh in the McKinnon which he won and then went on to win the
1999 Melbourne Cup. And before that Let’s Elope (another bart Cummings’ horse) won both the
McKinnon and the Melbourne Cup in 1991.
Note: The results of all these races, which are run after this eBook is completed,
can be found on my blog at http://www.TheMelbourneCup.wordpress.com I will
also write about these races at the password protected page. (See details on the
last page of this e-book).
About Statistics and Statisticians
On the topic of using statistics as a guideline, another gem from my Dad (a
bookmaker) was in relation to punters who always quoted statistics. He used to
say, with a smile on his face, “Son, there are liars, damn liars and statisticians.”
Ummmmmmm.
The 100 year system
Those long term subscribers to my Melbourne Cup prognostications will be familiar with my
‘wacky’ 100 year system. It came about when I mused, as history often repeats itself, why
wouldn’t it repeat itself in racing? And you will recall we have often ‘developed’ an association
with the winner. (Sometimes before the race and sometimes after the race!)
Well, the winner of the 1911 Melbourne Cup was - The Parisian. And I have to tell that
Paul Makin has already called me to suggest the ‘connection‘ will be easy in 2011. He said “It
has to be the French trained horse - Americain.”
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“When do you get my final Melbourne Cup selections?”
Because of many ‘variable factors’ I leave my final choice of horses until around 8am on the
morning of the Cup. (Tuesday 1st November) Not the least of the ‘variable factors’ is rain.
Trainers and owners usually hope for and prepare their horses for a dry track. However, if it
rains on Melbourne Cup Day, I have to throw all the previous research and reconnaissance out
the door and begin to look for horses who can handle wet tracks. (And there are not many of
these).
Also, last minute things can ‘happen’ to the horses. Eg. In 2003 the early favourite for the Cup
– Mummify – was scratched on Cup Day morning. On that morning trainer Lee Freedman
found Mummify was running a temperature and decided against running Mummify in the Cup.
Even so, things can still go wrong. In 2007 between the time I posted my six horses at 8am on
Cup Day morning and midday three of my selections were scratched. That’s racing!
Remember:
On Melbourne Cup Day morning, soon after
8am, you need go to:
www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au. You will see
on the top right hand side of the
page a red members
only box.
Click on it. You will then be asked for a user name and a
password. Use these:
Name:
member
Password: thinkbig
It is always a good habit to ‘refresh’ the page on your computer. Computers are geared
to give you the same information on the page that was there last time you visited so
remember to ‘refresh’ the page. (Usually clicking on F5 will do that)
Warning: Please DO NOT reveal the password to anyone. Otherwise, ‘the gods of luck’
may visit bad luck upon your wagering in the Melbourne Cup. (Luck and omens are ‘big things’
amongst the racing fraternity!
  
NB. I recommend you try out accessing the password protected page
http://www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au as soon as possible. As already stated if you have
problems call Hayley McLachlan on 0402 104 974 any time between now and 1.00 pm on the
day of the Cup. (2rd November).
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Bonus Section
How To Develop a Memory Like an Elephant
As mentioned, at the beginning, one of annual purchasers
of this eBook saw me on Television doing my ‘memory
party trick’. And he wrote and asked if I could help him
improve his memory.
Yes, it really is true that I have memorised the 1st, 2nd
and 3rd place getters of the Melbourne Cup since 1900.
And, it is also true that I am in the process of writing a
Memory eBook Course that will help everyone improve
their memory.
From 10 to 18 years of age a good memory will improve
your grades at school. From 18 to 50 years a good
memory will help you get promotions at work. For 50 years
and upward doing memory exercises may help prevent, or
at least slow down, the onset of ‘old age‘ diseases like
Dementia and Alzheimer’s.
So I thought I would include part of my Memory Course in
this 2011 Melbourne Cup eBook. How’s YOUR Memory?
Has this ever happened to you?
You travel to the
shopping mall or shopping centre with a plan to buy six
items. And when you arrive there, you remember four or five items easily. But, try as you
may, you cannot remember the last one or two items. Of course, you remember them as soon
as you arrive home! Ummmm. Frustrating isn’t it? You wonder how you could be so stupid!
Has this ever happened to you? As you were travelling to work you thought of something
very important that you ‘must do’ when you get to your office. Of course, when you get to
your office and try to recall what it was that was so important you can’t remember it. Drats!
Has this ever happened to you? As you walk around your place of business you note a light
needs changing in a corridor. You also remind yourself to have a conversation with your wife or
secretary about a meeting with a client. You think to yourself “I must attend to these things
when I get back to my office.” Of course, another ten things ‘happen’ between then and the
time you get to your office. And when you do arrive in your office you cannot remember all of
those ‘must do’ things. Oh dear, oh dear.
Does this all sound familiar?
Well, help is at hand!
I’ve studied the skills taught by memory experts Dr Bruno Furst and Harry Lorayne. Both are
exceptional teachers. I have learned much from them. As a result I have developed a system
of 100 mental hooks and the associated visuals. But I have to say that ‘normal people’ one
hundred hooks, I believe fifteen is a practical number and is an relatively easy task to conquer.
And when you do this you will find it very satisfying and of immense value. There are three
things that are important if you want to improve your memory and have an organised mind.
(1) You must have and remember a series of mental hooks (2) You need to develop the skill
of making humourous, memorable and/or outlandish associations (3) You must practice,
practice, practice.
Here are the first 15 of my 100 Memory Hooks. Try committing 6 of them to memory.
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2.Noah
1.Tea
3. Maypole
4.Ray
5.Law
6.Jaw
7.Key
8.Fee
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9.Bay
10.Toes
11. Tot
12.Tin
13.Tummy
14.Tarzan
15.Tail
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You need to learn these, by rote, immediately. You must be able to say them over and over and
over again. You must remember the number and the word associated with it.
Maypole, Ray, Law, Jaw, Key, Fee, Bay, Toes, Tot, Tin, Tummy, Tarzan, and Tail.
Tea, Noah,
But, as I suggested above, to begin with just focus on the first six.
1.Tea, 2. Noah, 3. Maypole, 4. Ray, 5. Law, 6. Jaw.
And then see if you can add the next four.
7. Key, 8. Fee, 9. Bay, 10. Toes.
The next skill to develop is that of making humourous, memorable and/or outlandish
associations with your mental hooks.
Let’s assume you are going down to the Supermarket to buy these 8 items.
1. Toothpaste
2.Coffee
3. Weet Bix
4. Vegemite
5. Toilet Paper
6. Sausages
7. Tomato Sauce
8. Batteries
So I need connect:
Toothpaste with #1 Teacup; Coffee with #2 Noah:
Vegemite with #4 Ray; Toilet Paper with #5 Law;
Tomato Sauce with #7 Key; Batteries with #8 Fee
Weet Bix with #3 Maypole;
Sausages with #6 Jaw;
My outlandish connection between Toothpaste and Tea is visualising a huge Tea Cup filled
up with Colgate Toothpaste. I can ‘see’ this huge Tea cup at the pharmacy isle of the
Suipermarket.
My outlandish connection between between Coffee and Noah is to visualise Noah serving
Coffee to all the animals walking two by two onto the Ark.
My outlandish connection between Weet Bix and Maypole is to see a ‘huge’ Maypole in the
centre of the Supermarket and on the end of the lines running off the maypole I can see Weet
Bix boxes on them.
My outlandish connection between Vegemite and Ray is to visualise me sitting in a Police
Station being questioned under a spotlight and the detective, holding a large jar, saying “Did
you eat this Vegemite?”
Now it is your turn to to do the visualisation.
I have a hundred memory hooks and these are the anchors of the system I use to remember
the horses that ran 1st in the last 100 Melbourne Cups. I then use associations to link the 2nd
and 3rd horses with the 1st horse. And then I practice, practice, practice.
As mentioned this is the first section of the eBook Memory Course I am developing and
publishing in 2012. When it is completed I will send you information about the course. Because
you are a purchaser of this Melbourne Cup eBook there will be a special discounted price for
you.
If you reall want to improve your memory and want to be one of the first to peruse my
memory course, when it is completed, email me at [email protected] include your details
in the email and in the subject line write: Max, I want to improve my memory.
In the meantime, I wish you fun with this new memory skill you can now begin to develop.
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And, of course, I wish you every success in the 2011 Melbourne Cup.
Sincerely
Max Hitchins
PO Box 5250
Greenwich NSW
Tel: 0419 53 63 73
[email protected]
www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au
www.TheMelbourneCup.wordpress.com
www.TheBestPub.com.au
www.HospitalityDoctor.com
PS. By the way....In my ʻreal jobʼ I do seminars all over the world focussing on
marketing and memory. I also do some complimentary memory sessions for
schools. And I particularly enjoy doing complimentary sessions for senior Groups
(eg. Probus) who want to focus on keeping their minds as sharp as a tack.
You might like to check out some testimonials from around the world at:
http://fsplugins.com/cgi-bin/allegro.pl?database.hitchins.testimonials.all.
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