IKB-DEF-MAR 27, 15 - Indicia Research & Advisory

Indicia Knowledge Brief
A Daily Assessment on Indian Defence and Internal/Homeland Security
March 27, 2015.
Primary aims of Indicia Daily Brief are two-fold. First, it distills infinite information into a
capsule form, thus saving precious time of its clients. Second, it tries to link micro-events
to larger strategic canvas through its analyses, thus providing support knowledge for
better understanding and decision-making.
Indicia Analysis of the Day
DRDO has set an ambitious target of making India “missile import free” by
2022. The DRDO’s target that India will have enough Indigenous missiles
systems to substitute imported weapons systems and will not have to
depend on imported missile in terms of air-to-ground, surface-to-air or
the air-to-air missiles, in 7 years, will be challenging.
With the stalled 126 Rafale fighters deal, with the Indo-Russian Fifth
Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) far in the future, and the Tejas light
combat aircraft (LCA) being built in insignificant numbers, the Indian Air
Force (IAF) is making up numbers by upgrading older fighters, often at
significant cost.
India and Thailand explored possibilities of deepening defence
cooperation between the two Asian countries. Defence understanding
with a neighbour towards its east will be a new and strategic move.
I. National Defence and Security:
The Mirage 2000 Upgrade: What Makes India's Fighter Jet Better:
16 years ago, I flew onboard Mirage 2000s of the Indian Air Force over Tiger Hill
within days of India handing Pakistan a humiliating defeat in the Kargil war. It
remains, what I consider, the biggest exclusive in my career as a journalist. I had
actually been cleared to fly in an operational sortie during the war by the then
Defence Minister George Fernandes, but in July 1999, Pakistani forces were
shell-shocked by wave after wave of Indian counter-attacks and the writing was
on the wall. If the courage and tenacity of India's soldiers and the breathtaking
fire power of the Bofors gun had won us the ground war, the war from the air
was won by one aircraft: the Mirage 2000. After repeated bomb and rocket-runs
by IAF MiG 21s and MiG-27s had failed to dislodge heavily entrenched Pakistani
defences well within Indian territory, the IAF pressed in its trump card, and the
surgical strikes by Mirages using laser-guided bombs broke the back of the
enemy's supply lines. This was French technology and desi jugaad at its best. The
IAF in 1999 had just a handful of laser-guided bombs and it didn't have the kit to
ensure that the bombs would hit high-altitude targets with pin-point precision.
Using a combination of modified laser-guided bombs (and unguided 'dumb
bombs') mated to hastily-procured Israeli Litening laser targeting pods, the IAF's
Mirages became instruments of death. Point 5140, Tololing, Tiger Hill and a
major re-supply base in the Batalik sector were destroyed, cutting off forward
deployed Pakistani forces.
Time to re-look at Trishul Missile program:
DRDO has set an ambitious target of making India “missile import free” by 2022,
DRDO informed Prime Minister’s Office that in next 7 years India will have
enough Indigenous missiles systems to substitute imported weapons systems
and will not have to depend on imported missile in terms of air-to-ground,
surface-to-air or the air-to-air missiles. DRDO already has developed expertise in
the field of strategic missiles such as the Agni, Prithvi and K Series SLBM missile
family and is also working on Indigenous Anti-tank and Air to Air missiles which
will reduce India’s dependence on Imports, but one of the crucial missiles
systems which concerns our front line warships and provides defensive shield to
our front line warships are ship-borne point-defense missile system which
provides protection against aircraft, anti-ship missiles, and UAVs. India is still
depended on Israeli supplied Barak 1 SAM system to protect its front line
warships and Barak-1 at present is deployed on 14 front line warships and While
DRDO is yet to take another project after Trishul (Trident) air-defense missile
which failed to enter production and was delinked after years of testing and was
later dubbed Technology demonstrator and officially was terminated in 2008.
Trishul (Trident) air-defense missile was supposed to serve all three services
while main customer could have been Indian navy. Indian air force and Indian
army too wanted land based system mounted on a specially modified BMP-1 IFV
chassis which was dubbed as Trishul Combat Vehicle. Missile system provided
quick-reaction surface-to-air missile system capable of engaging aircraft,
helicopters, unmanned air vehicles, drones at close range of up to 15km. Barak 1
SAM system too had its own share of controversy after corruption allegations
were leveled and from 2006 No fresh orders were placed, it was only last year in
2014 when CBI closed the case due to lack of evidence and new government
placed fresh orders for 262 Barak 1 missiles to replenish existing stock of
missiles. Barak 1 exposed vulnerability of imported missiles systems which can
get stuck in red tapes or stumble upon allegations of corruption. Due to limited
supply of missile, Navy was left with a vacuum and many to its frontline
warships like Aircraft carrier were under equipped or were not carrying any
missiles at all. While DRDO and IAI have already developed next-generation
long-range surface-to-air missile (LR-SAM) system AMD systems with 70-km
interception range which will soon be tested from India’s front line warship soon
but India is still depended on Israeli-built Barak 1 to provide security cover for
close encounters.....
Source: http://idrw.org/archives/61022
Facing dwindling numbers, Jaguar upgrade crucial for Indian
Air Force:
With no movement on the contract for 126 Rafale fighters, with the Indo-Russian
Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) far in the future, and the Tejas light
combat aircraft (LCA) being built in insignificant numbers, the Indian Air Force
(IAF) is making up numbers by upgrading older fighters, often at significant cost.
The IAF is down to 34 squadrons, against 42 authorised. This would dip to 30 by
the end of this decade, as nine squadrons of MiG-21 and MiG-27s retire, with
only three Sukhoi-30MKI and two Tejas squadrons due for induction. In the
circumstances, the IAF is extending the life of two Mirage 2000 squadrons, three
MiG-29 squadrons and six Jaguar squadrons for 15-20 years. On March 25,
French vendor, Thales, handed over the first two upgraded Mirage 2000-I
fighters in Paris. Over the next 7-10 years, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) will
upgrade another 49 Mirage 2000s in Bengaluru for Rs 12,100 crore. Meanwhile,
69 MiG-29 fighters are being upgraded for $964 million, an exercise the
government says will be completed by 2016. Now, a key IAF concern is to
rejuvenate its fleet of 123 Jaguars. In Bengaluru last month, IAF boss, Air Chief
Marshal Arup Raha, highlighted the urgent need to put new engines on the
Jaguar, a $2 billion (Rs 12,000 crore) procurement that the defence ministry has
stalled for years. The IAF bases two Jaguar squadrons each in Ambala, Jamnagar
and Gorakhpur. Termed "deep penetration strike aircraft", the Jaguar is designed
for low-level strikes against enemy ground targets: air bases, land forces and
warships. Powerful engines are essential, since enemy radar would pick up the
Jaguars' ingress into enemy territory, and scramble fighters to intercept them.
Said Raha, "[The Jaguar] is a very capable aircraft but it has some shortfalls in
terms of engine power. We are also upgrading it by putting in an auto-pilot and
some close combat missiles and an upgraded navigation system and weapon
aiming systems." The "re-engining programme" involves replacing the Jaguar's
underpowered Rolls-Royce Adour 804/811 engines with newer, more powerful
engines. Poised to bag this contract is US firm, Honeywell, whose F-125N engine
generates 43.8 KiloNewtons (kN) of thrust, significantly higher than the 32.5 kN
of the Jaguar's current engines.....
Indian Navy rings China Nuclear Sub alarm:
The Indian Navy has flagged concern over the deployment of a Chinese nuclear
submarine for anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden that transited through
waters close to India. The navy has told the government that the submarine,
probably a Shang-class Type T094 nuclear-powered boat, was capable of
"profiling the coastline", a source in the Indian Navy has told The Telegraph. The
SSN (sub-surface nuclear) attack submarine was deployed from December 13,
2014, to February 14, 2015. The deployment of the submarine that joined a
Chinese task force of two frigates and a fleet supply ship just for counter-piracy
does not make operational sense, the navy has pointed out. An SSBN (subsurface ballistic nuclear) submarine - that also forms part of the Chinese PLAN
(People's Liberation Army Navy) fleet - transiting the same route as the SSN
would have brought India within range of a missile, the navy reported to the
government. An SSBN, unlike an SSN, is both nuclear-powered and equipped to
launch nuclear-tipped missiles. The Chinese task force was also joined by a
research vessel capable of bathymetric studies - mapping the depth of the ocean
floors. The Indian Navy has told the government the Chinese may have been
conducting hydrological studies in India's western seaboard. But the navy said it
did not spot the Chinese boats in Indian territorial waters. The ships formed part
of the Chinese PLAN flotilla called the 18th convoy fleet from its South Sea Fleet.
The Indian Navy had been studying the Chinese counter-piracy deployment since
2008. Even the US Navy - the largest expeditionary force of its kind in the world was impressed by the PLAN's deployment. The Indian Navy has now responded
by prolonging the deployment of its own frigates in counter-piracy patrols. While
the practice was to recall each ship after a month's deployment, the navy has
now prolonged the deployment of its warships to three months. Nuclearpowered submarines are capable of staying submerged for much longer periods
than conventional diesel-electric submarines that have to surface every two or
three days to recharge batteries. The longer a submarine remains underwater,
the more undetectable it is. The deployment of the Chinese SSN submarine
followed objections from India after a Chinese conventional submarine had
docked in Colombo, the Sri Lankan capital, in September last year. India views Sri
Lanka as a strategic partner and it's support to a Chinese military asset was
frowned-upon by New Delhi.....
Source: http://www.defencenews.in/defence-news-internal.aspx?id=Xh0e01caWWU=
Manohar Parrikar to discuss next generation AWACS, French
missile deal next week:
The Defence Ministry is set to decide on going ahead with a Rs 5,200 crore
strategic programme to develop a next generation of airborne warning and
control systems (AWACS) that will act as a major force multiplier for the Indian
Air Force (IAF), giving it a deep insight into enemy territory. The large size
AWACS programme, different from an ongoing Embraer-based airborne early
warning and control system (AEWCS), is being developed by the Defence
Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and will initially be for two
aircrafts, an order that will be increased after successful development. Sources
said that the strategic project is set to come up for discussion with Defence
Minister Manohar Parrikar at a key meeting this week in which DRDO will make
its case for allocation of funds to go ahead with ordering a platform and initiating
work. The minister is also likely to discuss a partnership between France's
MBDA and the DRDO to develop a new class of Short Range Surface to Air
Missiles (SR-SAM) under the much delayed Maitri programme. The discussion
will come days before Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Paris where the
estimatedRs 30,000 crore programme is expected to be raised. The Maitri
programme was first discussed as a government to government deal in 2007 but
there has been little forward movement since 2 ......
India proud to be armed with the Su-30MKI fighter – Indian
The Indian Air Force is proud to possess the Sukhoi (Su-30MKI) fighter plane,
one of the world’s most powerful jet aircraft, said India’s Minister for Skill
Development and Entrepreneurship, Rajiv Pratap Rudy, who is himself an
accomplished pilot. By 2018, India’s Air Force is expected to possess 14 Su30MKI fighter jet squadrons. The Su-30MKI fighter aircraft which India has
acquired from Russia is one of the most powerful in the world and a source of
pride for the Indian Air Force (IAF), said Rajiv Pratap Rudy, while inaugurating
the first Russian-Indian Youth Forum.
Su-30MKI vs. Rafale: A virtual battle
"India takes pride that we have in our arsenal the Su-30MKI, which is one of the
most powerful fighter planes in the world ", said Rudy, Minister for Skill
Development and Entrepreneurship. A Russia-India youth summit will take place
on March 27. It is expected that more than 300 people aged between 18 and 35
will participate in the summit. The Russian Union of Youth is organizing the
summit with sponsorship from Rossotrudnichestvo in India. Rudy, an
accomplished pilot and former state minister for civil aviation, was among those
involved in organising the Aero India 2015 air show last month in Bangalore, and
took a 40 - minute ride himself on a Su-30MKI fighter, as the co- pilot. Rudy is not
the first Indian politician to fly aboard the Su-30MKI. In 2009, India’s only lady
President, Pratibha Patil, trained for and took a 20 minute test flight on this
India, US to jointly develop defense tech projects: US official:
India and the US will jointly work on several defence technology projects in an
effort to develop a "vibrant science and technology cooperation" to strengthen
national, regional and global security, a senior White House official has told
American lawmakers. "Developing vibrant defense science and technology
cooperation is one of the key steps in building enduring partnership between
India and the United States. "In support of these efforts, researchers from the
Department of Defense and the Indian Ministry of Defense are discussing
potential research collaborations in developing models of cognitive fatigue,
artificial cognition and traumatic brain injury," Jo Handelsman, associate director
for science at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy told
lawmakers during a Congressional hearing. He said that last year US President
Barack Obama and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had expressed their
"intention to expand defense cooperation to bolster national, regional, and global
security." They had said India and the US would build an enduring partnership in
which both sides could treat each other at the same level as their closest
partners in the sectors of defense technology transfers, trade, research, coproduction and co-development, he said. The two countries had renewed their
10-year Defense Framework Agreement during Obama's Republic Day visit to
India in January.
Chinese military bases in South China Sea worries India:
India has raised eyebrows over artificial islands that China is building in the
South China Sea (SCS) region -- which can allow Beijing to deploy naval and air
forces -- in the strategic waterway that is imperative for Delhi's Asia-Pacific
outreach as well as energy investments. Delhi has stated that stability in the
region is necessary for economic prosperity and asserted that threat of force
should not be used to settle disputes. Singapore Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen
had recently appealed to India to play a bigger role in the ASEAN region as Delhi
does not harbour hegemonistic ambitions. "We call on all parties to avoid the
threat or use of force and pursue resolution of territorial and maritime disputes
through all peaceful means, in accordance with universally recognized principles
of international law," a diplomatic source said. India is in the process of beefing
up engagement across economic spheres in the ASEAN region, including oil
blocks in Vietnam in the SCS region. Delhi is looking to boost its presence in the
Asia-Pacific region following PM Narendra Modi's visit there last November. "We
hope that their presence and participation will increase -- that really adds up to
engagement and confidence building and mutual understanding," Ng had said in
a recent interview to news agency Bloomberg, adding, "India is a big country and
it's an influential country."....
Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/chinese-military-bases-in-southchina-sea-worries-india/articleshow/46695711.cms
Australia-India-China: IOR Procurement race for Submarines:
As most of the international community focuses on maritime events taking place
in East Asia, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has been witnessing its own naval
arms race in recent years. Increasingly at the forefront of countries’ maritime
procurement wish-lists, are improved submarine capabilities. Owing to their
ability to conduct multiple missions such as anti-ship warfare, intelligence
gathering, and limited missile launches, submarines have long been a soughtafter vessel for medium fleets. India and Australia, with the two largest resident
submarine fleets in the Indian Ocean, have been looking to rebuild their fleet in
recent years. Though initially prompted by the state of their rapidly aging fleets,
both countries’ efforts to procure new submarines have been given new impetus
by China’s recent assertive behaviour and forays in the IOR. With 2015 already
shaping up to be an eventful year for both countries’ submarine programmes, it
is prudent to investigate the intended composition of each country’s future
submarine fleet and the problems that have been plaguing their procurement.
Australia is seeking to acquire 12 new conventional submarines to be in service
by 2024, a majority of which are likely to remain stationed in the Indian Ocean,
facing Western Australia. Its current fleet of six indigenously built Collins class
submarines, the last of which was only commissioned in 2003, will be upgraded
with modern systems to extend their lifespan to reach their planned retirement
date. Clearly disillusioned by the Collins project, successive governments have
sought to purchase the next generation, with the recent favourite being the
Japanese Soryu class; although French and German designs too are being
considered with a decision expected in mid-2015 to coincide with the new
Defence White Paper. However, the current government clearly favours
purchasing these submarines ‘off the shelf’ rather than have them built or
outfitted in Australian shipyards. Although an overseas purchase will likely need
some modification, especially in range, to meet Australian requirements, the
current government has refused to guarantee that this would be done by
Australian shipyards. This has caused significant local backlash, especially in
South Australia where the defence industry is strongest and the community,
desperate to keep its diminishing manufacturing base after the last car factories
closed. Nonetheless, in February, Australia’s defence force chief stated that there
is more of an emotive instead of national security case for domestic construction
of vessels as long as submarine maintenance remains in Australia.....
‘Material failure, human error’ causing naval mishaps:
The Indian Navy on March 26 said the debris of the Dornier aircraft that crashed
into the Arabian Sea on on March 24 has been located. In the backdrop of
frequent naval mishaps, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence — on
December 22 last year — raised questions on quality of equipment/machinery,
inadequate training of Navy personnel and the gradually declining level of
funding which can compromise operational preparedness. It had listed out the
small and big accidents in the past few years. Summing up the causes of naval
accidents, the report tabled in Parliament had said: “The committee found that in
most of these (accident) cases, the reasons for mishap is either material failure
or human error,” the report said. The Parliamentary Committee interviewed
senior most Navy and Ministry of Defence officers before announcing its verdict.
“This implies that either the equipment and machinery acquired are substandard
or there are inadequacies in training,” the committee said in its report. It pointed
to inadequate funding, saying “(lack of funding) further aggravates the condition
of the Indian Navy and leads to compromises in operational preparedness”, the
committee which is headed by Maj Gen BC Khanduri (retd) observed. The former
Army General is an elected MP from Uttarakhand. The Navy’s share in the Budget
is declining. The share of the naval budget within the total defence budget of
India fell to 15.72 per cent in 2014-15. It was 16.79 per cent during 2013-14 and
18.12 per cent in 2012-13. This is the sixth successive year of lesser allocation
under the ‘other than salary’ segment.
India, Thailand explore possibilities of deepening defence ties:
India and Thailand on March 26 explored possibilities of deepening defence
cooperation between the two Asian countries. Thailand's Permanent Secretary of
Defence Gen Sirichai Distakul, who is in India on a three-day visit, held meetings
with Defence Secretary R K Mathur and Secretary Defence Production G Mohan
Kumar. Sources said the talks focused on deepening the cooperation especially
on the defence production side. The Asian neighbour is keen to join hands with
India for manufacture of small weapons, sources said. Gen Distakul will be
visiting an ordinance factory in Nagpur tomorrow, defence sources said. The
Defence Ministry is looking at engaging with Thailand and the first step was
made in 2013 during a visit by then Defence Minister A K Antony. He had then
raised the matter of joint production with his Thai counterpart.
Source: http://zeenews.india.com/news/india/india-thailand-explore-possibilities-of-deepening-defenceties_1568405.html
Indian Naval vessels to reach Sri Lanka's east coast for drill:
Four Indian Navy vessels will arrive in Sri Lanka on March 27 to hold a three-day
training exercise for Lankan Navy personnel in the country's east coast. Four
ships from the Indian Navy's First Training Squadron, namely Indian Naval Ships
TIR and KESARI, Indian Coast Guard Ship VARUNA and Sail Training Ship
SUDARSHINI, are visiting Trincomalee from March 27-29, the Indian High
Commission said. A series of professional, training, cultural and sports
interactions will take place between the ships' crew and Sri Lankan Navy
personnel in the country's eastern coast. Ships from the First Training Squadron
have been visiting Sri Lanka regularly. Their last visit to the island nation was in
April, 2013 during which valuable training opportunities were provided to the
Sri Lankan Navy. The First Training Squadron, which comprises six ships
including two sail ships, imparts sea training to Naval and Coast Guard Sea
Trainee officers. The ships of the First Training Squadron are the only ships of
Indian Navy and Coast Guard where intensive practical ab initio sea training in
seamanship, navigation, shiphandling, boat work and engineering is conducted
for officers over a period of 24 weeks, according to a press release. The Training
Squadron is headed by Captain S R Ayyar, Senior Officer First Training Squadron
and Commanding Officer INS Tir. The First Training Squadron is a part of Indian
Navy's prestigious Southern Naval Command (SNC) headed by Flag Officer
Commanding-in-Chief, Vice Admiral SPS Cheema....
Homeland Security
ISI sent spies to get details of India's new naval base 'Varsha':
Pakistan intelligent officers sent two spies to get the necessary details of 'Project
Varsha', near Visakhapatnam. The base will be home for the Navy’s new fleet of
nuclear submarines. According to the chargesheet filed by National Investigation
Agency (NIA) in the court on March 6, the spies were also asked to attempt
befriending and luring Indian Navy and Army officers to Colombo where
"women and cash could be arranged" to get information on defence matters.
According to the Economic Times, one of the spies Thameem Ansari was asked
by the Pakistani officers to pose as a filmmaker making a documentary titled
'Power of India' on the Indian armed forces to befriend some Army and Navy
officers. The two Pakistani officers named in the charge-sheet are Amir Zubair
Siddiqui, counsellor (visa) posted with the High Commission of Pakistan in Sri
Lanka and Vineeth alias Rana, "a Pakistan intelligence officer" also posted in Sri
Lanka, the NIA has said. "Siddique had specifically instructed Ansari to get details
about Visakhapatnam Naval Base and concentrate on Project Varsha for which
he asked him to go to Visakhapatnam and hire an accommodation near naval
station," the charge-sheet says. Vineeth had further asked for details on Project
Varsha such as "stage and depth of the channel", the agency said. NIA has said
that Ansari was told to visit places that naval officers frequently visit "viz. hotels,
bars, cinema theatres etc" and asked to pose as a rich businessman to befriend
them. If he had success in the plan, they could be brought to Colombo, where he
would arrange all kinds of facilities for them like women, cash, drinks etc. for
getting information of the defence details. The agency however did not mention
whether Ansari was actually successful in doing so. NIA, however, said Ansari
and another spy, Arun Selvarajan - arrested in India in 2012 and 2014
respectively - recced and photographed numerous secret installations. It further
said that Ansari befriended a retired Army officer who had earlier worked in
Para regiment and ASC of Indian Army and got introduced to him formally in
Granary Rotary club of Thanjavur. Ansari however managed to photograph all
the insignia and medals of the said retired Army officer without his knowledge
and also procured a CD from him, 'Army Para Jumping, according to NIA....
Source: http://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/isi-sent-spies-to-get-details-of-india-new-naval-basevarsha-49015.html
Lack of Coordination Led to Intel Failure in 26/11: US Panel:
A US panel tasked with reviewing the FBI has said that one of the main lessons
learnt from the 2008 Mumbai terror attack case was that "relevant intelligence
may fall by the wayside" in the absence of an intelligence effort to understand
the connections among cases. A Congressionally mandated panel charged with
reviewing the FBI's implementation of recommendations contained in the 9/11
Commission Report in 2004 issued its findings and cited the 2008 Mumbai terror
attack as one of five "significant terrorism events". It said that the PakistaniAmerican Mumbai terror attack convict David Headley was an "even more
elusive target" than Najibullah Zazi, an Afghan-American who was arrested in
September, 2009 as part of the US Al Qaeda group accused of planning suicide
bombings on the New York City Subway system. "Headley conducted his
activities with all the skills of a trained intelligence operative - able to travel to
and from the United States, Pakistan, and India with relative ease and eluding
authorities," the report noted. "Headley had previously come to the attention of
US law enforcement authorities, but FBI officials repeatedly concluded that
Headley did not pose a threat at the time," said the 120-page 'Report of the
Congressionally-directed 9/11 Review Commission' released. "One of the main
lessons from the Headley case is that absent an intelligence effort across the USIC
to understand the connections among cases and complaints across field offices,
relevant intelligence may fall by the wayside," said the report that also suggested
where the FBI can improve.....
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