NiveshDaily March 19, 2015 INDICES Indices Previous (day) Close % chg Sensex Nifty 28,622.12 8,685.90 -0.40% -0.43% (As on 18th March, 2015) FROM RESEARCH DESK Company Updates CARE Ratings | Reiterate ‘BUY’ with Target Price of Rs 1,800/- Management Meet Update Management Meet Update | IPCA Laboratories Ltd. | Work-in-progress to resolve regulatory issues; maintain HOLD with PT Under Review Global Markets - Outlook Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Tel: +91 22 66188826 [email protected] IndiaNivesh Research IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV. Company Updates Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research CARE Ratings | Reiterate ‘BUY’ with Target Price of Rs 1,800/- Tel: +91 22 66188826 [email protected] We are positive on huge long term opportunities for the credit rating sector on the back of development in Indian debt market over FY15-17E. The company’s above average industry growth rate, highest margins, superior efficiency and return profile among the listed peers makes it more attractive investment. We believe CARE is the best pick among listed rating agencies as more than 95% of its revenue comes from domestic ratings. Declining interest rates coupled with better demand is expected to lift corporate capex by H2FY16. We reiterate ‘BUY’ rating on the stock with the same price target of Rs 1,800/- (P/E multiple of 25x for FY17E). Kaushal Patel Research Associate Tel: +91 22 66188834 [email protected] IDBI Bank has sold its 10% stake in CARE Ratings for Rs 4.2 bn. It sold 2.9 mn shares at an average price of Rs 1,453/- a share as on March 18, 2015. Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) has picked 9.94% stake in Credit Analysis and Research (CARE) for Rs 4.2 bn. It has purchased 2.9 mn shares at a price of Rs 1,453 a share on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). However, there will not be any operational or financial impact on the CARE ratings due to such a deal. Outlook and Valuation: The company’s performance is driven a lot by new business which is dependent on growth in overall investment climate in the economy. We believe that bank credit growth has bottomed out and expect it to pick up in next few quarters. In addition to, there is a huge long term opportunities for the credit rating sector on the back of development in debt market due to likely revival in corporate capex and CARE is well positioned to grow organically and inorganically once the economy revival starts. CARE is the best placed for cyclical recovery in corporate capex and bank credit growth. CARE is our preferred pick among the listed credit rating agencies. At CMP of Rs 1,488/-, the stock is now trading at P/E multiple of 25x and 21x for FY16E and FY17E respectively. We continue to maintain ‘BUY’ rating on the stock with the same price target of Rs 1,800/- (P/E multiple of 25x for FY17E). IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily March 19, 2015 | 2 Management Meet Update March 19, 2015 IPCA Laboratories Ltd. Work-in-progress to resolve regulatory issues Current Previous CMP : Rs.777 Rating : HOLD Rating : HOLD Target : UR Target : Rs.598 (UR-Under Review) STOCK INFO Index BSE NSE Bloomberg Reuters Sector Face Value (Rs) Equity Capital (Rs mn) Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 52w H/L Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE) S&P BSE 200 524494 IPCALAB IPCA IN IPCA.BO Pharmaceutical 2 252 98,028 899 / 591 615,417 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN % (as on Dec. 2014) Promoters FIIs DIIs Public & Others 45.9 22.8 11.9 19.4 Source: BSE STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 1m IPCA LAB 12.9 SENSEX (2.9) 3m 9.4 4.6 Source: IndiaNivesh Research IPCA LAB v/s SENSEX IPCA LABS LTD SENSEX Index 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 ‐ Source: IndiaNivesh Research, Capitaline Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Tel: +91 22 66188826 [email protected] Tushar Manudhane Research Analyst Tel: +91 22 66188835 [email protected] IndiaNivesh Research 12m (5.5) 31.1 We recently met the management of Ipca Lab (IPCA IN) to get an update with respect to various regulatory inspections and subsequent impact on business going forward. Also, we tried to understand the synergy between Krebs Biochemicals and Industries (KBC IN) and IPCA post acquiring considerable stake in KBC. The US business is majorly affected due to import alert by USFDA at its API facility at Ratlam. The regulatory hurdle had affected Institutional Anti-malaria business as well. The branded business in Russia/CIS countries was affected due to currency headwinds. IPCA is in the process of taking corrective actions to resolve USFDA issues. The management expects to complete the corrective actions by end of March 2015. There has been sharp run up of 20% in stock price in month of March 2015 till date. However, we would wait for more clarity on outcome of steps taken for resolution of USFDA issues, to incorporate respective changes in financials and hence in price target. Hence, we put our price target under review. However, we maintain HOLD rating on the stock. We believe any positive news on USFDA issues resolution would be a re-rating to the stock which is trading at discount to its peers. At CMP of Rs777, the stock is trading at the stock is trading at 20.8x FY16E EPS of Rs37.4 and 18.2x FY17E EPS of Rs42.7. Corrective actions in progress to resolve USFDA issues: Post import alert in January 2015, IPCA is in the process of implementing corrective measures to comply with USFDA norms. The import alert by USFDA had triggered inspection by other regulatory agencies as well. Ipca’s API plant at Ratlam had inspection from 59 regulatory agencies since then. The inspections were done by European regulatory agency, WHO Geneva and TGA-Australia in February 2015. However, IPCA received the formal outcome of inspection by European regulatory agency, WHO Geneva and TGA-Australia in very recent past. IPCA would respond to the letter and may take 8-10 weeks in total to resolve the issue. API sales were adversely impacted during the corresponding period. IPCA expects API sales to ROW market to revive in next 2-3 months. In addition, the profitability was also affected due to higher expenses related to consultancy charges and implementation of corrective measures. IPCA expects to complete the implementation of corrective measures to comply with USFDA norms by the end of March 2015. Inorganic growth due to KBC: IPCA picked 18.92% stake in KBC in February 2015, triggering open offer to buy up to 26%. The open offer is made at Rs54 as share. The open offer is from April 15, 2015 to April 28, 2015. Post completion of transaction, Ipca would be able to use the manufacturing facility of KBC for its products in biotechnology space. Unit II at Vizag is EUGMP approved, while Unit I at Nellore is USFDA approved. However, Unit I was last inspected in 2011 and the plant was not operational for past one year. Thus, the facility would have to be reinspected before commercial operation, followed by stability test for products for US market. Overall, the gestation period is about 2 years for facility to have commercial operation for US market. However, the facility would be ready for India and ROW market in 3-4 months time frame once the transaction closes. Domestic Formulation business to grow at steady rate of 16-17% y-y in medium term: Domestic formulation (DF) has been the steady stream of business for IPCA, with 12-13% y-y growth driven by volume. New product launches and price led 23% y-y growth. IPCA has shown 16.4% y-y growth in this segment for 9MFY15. IPCA is expected to show similar growth in medium term, mainly led by volume. The y-y growth due to new product introduction would be slower as product approval is IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV. Management Meet Update (contd...) taking longer time. Anti-malarials, Cardiovascular, anti-diabetes and Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) would continue to drive y-y growth for IPCA. Institutional Anti-Malaria business to pick up in FY16, subject to regulatory approval: Institutional anti-malaria business remains impacted due to regulatory hurdle. In 9MFY15, IPCA garnered sales to the tune of Rs2.3bn (US$37mn). The regulatory hurdle has resulted in temporary loss of business of US$23mn in FY15. However, there is chance of recovery of lost business subject to regulatory clearance. There could be ramp up in sales in FY16 due to deferring of sales to FY16. There has been deferment of injectables anti-malaria business as one of the equipment has not performed as per the requirement. IPCA has replaced the equipment by procuring from other company, resulting in some delay in injectables anti-malaria business. Capex update: IPCA had capex to the tune of Rs6bn over past two years. The major capex of Rs2bn was spent on setting up new API facility at Baroda, which comprised of two manufacturing blocks and one R&D block. The land size of baroda unit is sufficient for further expansion as and when required. IPCA guided for first batch of commercial manufacturing for India and ROW market by April 2015. About Rs800mn -900mn was spent on Hormone facility. Another Rs600mn-800mn was spent for new administrative building at Kandivli. About Rs400mn-450mn was spent on acquiring Tarapur facility for ROW market. With major capex done for FY15, IPCA guided to have maintainence capex in FY16. Valuation: At CMP of Rs777, the stock is trading at 20.8x FY16E EPS of Rs37.4 and 18.2x FY17E EPS of Rs42.7. The stock depreciated by 13% in second half of January 2015, probably due to import alert at its API facility at Ratlam. There has been sharp run up of 20% in March 2015 till date in anticipation of faster resolution of USFDA issues. However, we would wait for more clarity on outcome of steps taken for resolution of USFDA issues, to incorporate respective changes in financials and hence in price target. Hence, we put our price target under review. However, we maintain HOLD rating on the stock. We believe any positive news on USFDA issues resolution would be a re-rating to the stock which is trading at discount to its peers. IndiaNivesh Research IPCA Laboratories Ltd. March 19, 2015| 2 Management Meet Update (contd...) Standalone Financial Summary Income statement Y E March (Rs m) Net sales Growth % Expenditure Raw Material Employee cost Other expenses EBITDA Growth % EBITDA Margin % Deprecaition EBIT EBIT Margin % Other Income Interest PBT Tax Effective tax rate % Extraordinary items Less: Minority Interest Adjusted PAT Growth% PAT margin % Reported PAT Growth% FY13 27,388 19.1% FY14 31,818 16.2% FY15E 31,504 ‐1.0% FY16E 36,862 17.0% FY17E 42,851 16.2% 10,910 3,766 6,895 5,817 20.3% 21.2% 840 11,274 4,779 8,244 7,522 29.3% 23.6% 1,009 9,451 5,501 10,580 5,972 ‐20.6% 19.0% 1,154 11,796 6,269 11,581 7,216 20.8% 19.6% 1,284 13,712 7,242 13,220 8,677 20.3% 20.2% 1,410 4,977 18.2% 583 313 5,247 1,300 24.8% (633) 6,513 20.5% 745 246 7,012 1,517 21.6% (721) 4,818 15.3% 693 257 5,254 1,576 30.0% - 5,932 16.1% 822 194 6,561 1,837 28.0% - 7,267 17.0% 978 194 8,052 2,657 33.0% - 3,947 18.5% 14.4% 3,314 18.3% 5,495 39.2% 17.3% 4,774 44.0% 3,678 ‐33.1% 11.7% 3,678 ‐23.0% 4,724 28.4% 12.8% 4,724 28.4% 5,395 14.2% 12.6% 5,395 14.2% Y E March (Rs m) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Net Worth Non Current Liabilities Long term borrowing Deferred Tax liabilities Other Loang Term Liabilities Long term Provisions FY13 252 15,446 15,699 FY14 252 19,564 19,816 FY15E 252 22,506 22,758 FY16E 252 26,238 26,490 FY17E 252 30,445 30,698 3,662 1,304 4 122 5,092 2,921 1,471 4 145 4,541 2,921 1,471 4 145 4,541 2,921 1,471 4 145 4,541 2,921 1,471 4 145 4,541 1,571 2,655 1,652 419 6,297 27,088 1,380 3,374 2,514 547 7,814 32,171 1,380 2,300 1,900 547 6,126 33,426 1,380 2,870 2,223 547 7,020 38,051 1,380 3,336 2,584 547 7,848 43,086 12,045 218 977 14,710 288 1,338 15,762 288 1,338 16,689 288 1,338 17,422 288 1,338 7,335 4,159 547 496 1,311 13,848 8,385 4,485 695 655 1,617 15,836 8,437 4,784 672 571 1,575 16,039 9,871 5,598 1,756 668 1,843 19,736 11,475 6,508 3,137 777 2,143 24,039 27,088 32,171 33,426 38,051 43,086 Y E March EPS (Rs) Core EPS Reported Cash EPS (Rs) DPS (Rs) BVPS (Rs) FY13 31.3 26.3 37.9 4.7 124.4 FY14 43.5 37.8 51.5 7.2 157.0 FY15E 29.1 29.1 38.3 5.8 180.3 FY16E 37.4 37.4 47.6 7.9 209.9 FY17E 42.7 42.7 53.9 9.4 243.2 ROCE ROE 14.6% 33.4% 17.1% 35.4% 11.0% 23.1% 12.4% 24.8% 12.5% 26.2% 98 55 89 98 55 89 98 55 89 98 55 89 98 55 89 24.8 6.2 17.7 0.6% 3.6 0.3 0.8 17.8 4.9 13.5 0.9% 3.1 0.2 0.5 26.7 4.3 17.0 0.8% 3.1 0.2 0.6 20.8 3.7 13.9 1.0% 2.7 0.1 0.4 18.2 3.2 11.4 1.2% 2.3 0.0 0.1 Current Liabilities Short term borrowings Trade payables Other current liabilities Short term provisions Total Liabilities Assets Net Block Non Current Investments Long term laons & Advances Current Assets Inventories Sundry Debtors Cash & Banak Balances Other Current Assets Loans & Advances Total assets Cash Flow Key ratios Y E March (Rs m) PBT FY13 4,614 FY14 6,291 FY15E 5,254 FY16E 6,561 FY17E 8,052 Depreciation Interest Other non cash charges Changes in working capital Tax Cash flow fromoperations Capital expenditure Free Cash Flow Other income Investments Cash flow from investments Equity capital raised Loans availed or (repaid) Interest paid Dividend paid (incl tax) Cash flow from Financing Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year Adjust Cash at the end of the year 840 313 19 (1,000) (917) 3,869 (2,286) 1,583 100 (448) (2,634) (440) 445 (318) (468) (781) 453 93 1 547 1,009 246 76 (1,048) (1,302) 5,271 (3,839) 1,432 140 (45) (3,744) (440) (283) (661) (1,384) 144 531 21 695 1,154 257 (1,914) (1,576) 3,174 (2,205) 969 (2,205) (257) (736) (993) (24) 695 672 1,284 194 (1,720) (1,837) 4,482 (2,212) 2,270 (2,212) (194) (992) (1,185) 1,084 672 1,756 1,410 194 (2,094) (2,657) 4,904 (2,143) 2,762 (2,143) (194) (1,187) (1,380) 1,381 1,756 3,137 Inventories Days Sundry Debtors Days Trades Payable Days PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend Yield % m cap/sales (x) net debt/equity (x) net debt/ebitda (x) Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research IndiaNivesh Research IPCA Laboratories Ltd. March 19, 2015| 3 Global Markets - Outlook Dharmesh Kant VP Strategies & Fund Manager (PMS) Mobile: +91 77383 93372 Tel: +91 22 66188890 [email protected] Global Market Update US Markets: U.S. stocks closed higher Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee indicated a slower pace of rate hikes, following the removal of the word “patient” from its policy statement. The Fed’s “dot plot,” or survey of what Fed officials think rates should be at certain times, indicated a slower rise in rates, as the median dot for the end of 2015 declined to 0.625% from 1.125%. The Fed said it would raise rates when “further” improvement in the labor market has been seen. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said at a news conference the central bank has not determined timing on rate increases. Below are highlights from the press conference by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen after the central bank’s latest statement. “Let me emphasize, however, that the timing of the initial increase in the target range will depend on the committee’s assessment of incoming information. Today’s modification of our guidance should not be interpreted to mean that we have decided on the timing of that increase. In other words, just because we removed the word patient from the statement doesn’t mean we’re going to be impatient. Moreover, even after the initial increase in the target funds rate, our policy is likely to remain highly accommodative to support continued progress toward our objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation.” Day’s Performance: The S&P 500 jumped 25.14 points, or 1.2%, to close at 2,099.42, with all 10 sectors finishing higher on the day, led by energy and utilities. Just before the Fed’s statement, the S&P 500 was down 8 points. The Nasdaq Composite surged 45.39 points, or 0.9%, to close at 4,982.83, after being down about 17 points before the statement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 227.11 points, or 1.3%, to close at 18,076.19, after trading down 101 points just before the statement’s release. Set ups on S&P 500, Dow Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 are correcting from their all time high levels. We have consistently maintained set ups were not convincing for a sustained rally while being cautious on US markets; we are expecting a correction to 1900 levels on S&P 500. Emerging markets: Asian stocks are trading in green this morning on supportive global cues. Bullions & Commodities: Gold is trading at $1173 per troy ounce this morning up 1.88% from previous close. WTI Crude future is trading at $44.32 per barrel while Brent Crude future is trading at $55.66 per barrel. Currencies: The U.S. Dollar Index tracking the U.S. currency against a basket of six others currencies trading at 97.31 this morning down (0.52%) from previous close. Long term set ups up on Dollar Index are strong. Our target of 89 has been achieved. The dollar and U.S. stocks often trade on opposite paths, with a weak dollar seen as providing investors with cheap funding to buy stocks. Plus the dollar’s drop generally helps U.S. companies’ overseas sales. Source: Bloomberg IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily March 19, 2015 | 3 Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited (“INSPL”), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. INSPL includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, employees and affiliates. 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Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, accounting and/or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to recipients’ specific circumstances. INSPL does not accept any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, assurances, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this document only. The opinions are subject to change without any notice. INSPL directors/employees and its clients may have holdings in the stocks mentioned in the document. This report is based / focused on fundamentals of the Company and forward-looking statements as such, may not match with a report on a company’s technical analysis report Each of the analysts named below hereby certifies that, with respect to each subject company and its securities for which the analyst is responsible in this report, (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies and securities, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report: Daljeet S Kohli, Amar Maurya, Abhishek Jain, Yogesh Hotwani, Prerna Jhunjhunwala, Kaushal Patel, Rahul Koli, Tushar Manudhane & Dharmesh Kant. Following table contains the disclosure of interest in order to adhere to utmost transparency in the matter: Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Details of business activity of IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited (INSPL) INSPL is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE and MCX - SX in all the major segments viz. Cash, F & O and CDS segments. INSPL is also a Depository Participant and registered with both Depository viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, INSPL is a Registered Portfolio Manager and is registered with SEBI. 2. Details of Disciplinary History of INSPL No disciplinary action is / was running / initiated against INSPL Please refer to the important 'Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the IndiaNivesh website (investment 3. Details of Associates of INSPL Research Section http://www.indianivesh.in/Admin/Upload/635615016831250000_Stock%20Holding%20Disclosure%20list%20as%20on%20February%2028%202015.pdf link). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. INSPL and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. 4. Research analyst or INSPL or its relatives'/associates' financial interest in the subject No (except to the extent of shares held by Research analyst or INSPL or its relatives'/associates') company and nature of such financial interest 5. Research analyst or INSPL or its relatives'/associates' actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more Please refer to the important 'Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the IndiaNivesh website (investment in securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date Research Section http://www.indianivesh.in/Admin/Upload/635615016831250000_Stock%20Holding%20Disclosure%20list%20as%20on%20February%2028%202015.pdf link). of publication of the document. Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. INSPL and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. 6. Research analyst or INSPL or its relatives'/associates' any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the document No 7. Has research analyst or INSPL or its associates received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months No 8. Has research analyst or INSPL or its associates managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months No 9. Has research analyst or INSPL or its associates received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months No 10. Has research analyst or INSPL or its associates received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months No 11. Has research analyst or INSPL or its associates received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the document. No 12. Has research analyst served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company No 13. Has research analyst or INSPL engaged in market making activity for the subject company No 14. Other disclosures No INSPL, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. This information is subject to change, as per applicable law, without any prior notice. INSPL reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement, as may be required, from time to time. Definitions of ratings BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months. HOLD. We expect this stock to deliver -15% to +15% returns over the next 12 months. SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-15% returns over the next 12 months. Our target prices are on a 12-month horizon basis. Other definitions NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and target price, if any, have been arrived at due to certain circumstances not in control of INSPL CS = Coverage Suspended. INSPL has suspended coverage of this company. UR=Under Review. Such e invest review happens when any developments have already occurred or likely to occur in target company & INSPL analyst is waiting for some more information to draw conclusion on rating/target. NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable. NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company One year Price history of the daily closing price of the securities covered in this note is available at www.nseindia.com and www.economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes. (Choose name of company in the list browse companies and select 1 year in icon YTD in the price chart) IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899 e-mail: [email protected] | Website: www.indianivesh.in Home IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily March 19, 2015 | 4 IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.
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