MITIGATING THE IMPACT OF TRANSPORTATION NETWORK DISRUPTIONS ON EVACUATION Statement of Work This project will develop methods to assess the impact of disruptions to the ground transportation network on evacuation planning. The results will be implemented for integration into SUMMIT (Standard Unified Modeling, Mapping, and Integration Toolkit), a decision support tool sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security to confront the National Planning Scenarios. Project Technical Description Keywords: transportation network vulnerability, evacuation planning, risk modeling, risk mitigation 1. Theme Area: Risk Analysis 2. Principal Investigator: Lance Fiondella 3. Institution: University of Massachusetts (UMass) Dartmouth 4. Co-Investigators: Nicholas Lownes, University of Connecticut 5. Brief Description: The purpose of this research is to develop algorithms for transportation network vulnerability assessment and routing to enhance the realism of SUMMIT [MM12], a multi-simulation tool designed to serve as a decision support system for the National Planning Scenarios (NPS), which are a set of 15 high consequence scenarios encompassing CBRNe (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear explosives) events as well as natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes. The SUMMIT environment implements best-in-class simulation techniques for scientific phenomenon such as the propagation of a plume released from an explosive device and building damage that may result from an earthquake. However, most of these scenarios lack a transportation component that could be used for evacuation planning. For example, Figure 1 shows the SUMMIT implementation of NPS one, Improvised Nuclear Detonation, where simulations are represented as boxes and input/output data flows as arrows. Infrastructure Effects and Hospital Surge simulations enable assessment of damage to building and peak hospital capacity planning. However, data flowing out of the Nuclear Effects Figure 1: National Planning Scenario one, Improvised Nuclear Detonation simulation, including Prompt Effects, Fallout Plume Contours, and Population Exposure are not utilized as inputs into a transportation model to formulate an orderly evacuation strategy to minimize population exposure despite complicating factors such as obstacles blocking roads. As a result, SUMMIT is primarily suitable for use as a risk assessment tool. Incorporating transportation simulations as well as game theoretic and operations research oriented algorithms into the scenarios will broaden the scope and detail of the problems that can be considered by the toolkit, enabling decision support system functionality to adaptively identify robust risk mitigation strategies. 6. Objectives: The proposed research will assess the data flows in each of the 15 National Planning Scenarios implemented as multi-simulations in SUMMIT. For each scenario, we will identify potential uses of existing simulation outputs that can serve as inputs to a transportation simulation module as well as outputs a transportation simulation module can produce to serve as additional inputs into existing simulation models in order to enhance their realism. For example, Figure 2 shows a possible revision to the data flows given in Figure 1, so that existing simulation outputs can be used to formulate and evacuation plan for emergency broadcast. Figure 2: Revised flow of NPS one incorporating Evacuation Planning & Emergency Broadcast The Evacuation Planning & Emergency Broadcast simulation should utilize the Affected Infrastructure output of the Infrastructure Effects model to determine the availability or unavailability of roads from events such as building collapse. This Evacuation Planning & Emergency Broadcast simulation should also use the Fallout Plume Contours output of the Nuclear Effects model to formulate a centrally coordinated evacuation plan that minimizes Population Exposure, which will reduce the Hospital Surge and corresponding Needed Hospital Capacity and Prophylaxis Needed. These modifications will mitigate the implicit assumption that evacuation can be executed smoothly despite potential disruptions to the transportation network. The Principal Investigator of SUMMIT at Sandia National Laboratories, Nerayo Teclemariam, confirmed that the plume model is classified, but that they are working to integrate unclassified plume models into the Toolkit. The classified nature of this simulation will prevent integration of an Evacuation Planning & Emergency Broadcast simulation into several of the scenarios involving a CBRNe event. Thus, we propose to perform preliminary experiments in the context of a less sensitive scenario or use simulations available to the scientific community. We intend to implement our algorithm in SUMMIT. Dr. Fiondella and his students at UMass Dartmouth have a SUMMIT account and access to the SUMMIT software development kit (SDK). We plan to spend the spring 2014 semester and summer familiarizing ourselves with the mechanics of developing within the SUMMIT SDK so that we may focus our efforts on the proposed research during the project’s performance period. A University of Massachusetts Dartmouth student has applied to work with Nerayo and the SUMMIT team at Sandia through the DHS HS-STEM Summer Internship Program (https://www3.orau.gov/DHSEd/Posting/Details/181). This experience would provide us with additional expertise needed to complete the proposed and future projects successfully. We will prototype the simulation in a general purpose programming language only if we are unable to avoid restrictions imposed by security classification. In any case, the requirements of a transportation module for each of the remaining scenarios will be expanded based on experience obtained implementing the prototype. The ultimate objective of this project is to prepare one or more proposals for submission to sources of potential funding within the DHS enterprise. These proposals will outline the significance of the preliminary research and set forth a comprehensive plan to integrate transportation into SUMMIT to improve the toolkit’s ability to support transportation problems of relevance to the DHS, such as evacuation planning, emergency response, and hazardous materials (HazMat) routing. This funding would enable ongoing collaboration between the proposers and researchers at CREATE. 7. Interfaces to CREATE Projects: This project will maintain interfaces with CREATE's research activities in the areas of risk assessment as well as risk management. Our proposed research is a novel synthesis of game theoretic techniques and optimization, which overlap with the research interests of multiple members of the CREATE team. More importantly, the project will enable additional interfaces with DHS, including opportunities to pursue collaborative funding such as the Resilient Systems Division (RSD) of the Homeland Security Advanced Research Projects Agency (HS-ARPA). Links to other organizations such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Red Cross, Department of Transportation (DOT), or a local city will be necessary to demonstrate the transferability of the proposed research. The University of Massachusetts Dartmouth is less than one hour from Camp Edwards, home to Coast Guard Air Station Cape Cod, Otis Air National Guard Base, and other federal and state agencies responsible for executing Department of Defense and DHS missions. The PI has met with Camp Edwards’ leadership, Colonels James LeFavor and Virginia Doonan, to discuss potential collaborations in support of this project. The co-PI has led several projects sponsored by the Federal and State DOT as well as transportation research institutes. Our previous research on HazMat routing [RFL14] offers another avenue to pursue funding from the Chemical and Biological Defense Division of HS-ARPA. 8. Previous or current work relevant to the proposed project: Our previous research [WFL11], [FRL12] applies a combination of game theory and optimization methods to identify the vulnerability of transportation networks to disruption and prioritize the allocation of defenses to critical links over long time horizons. We are now exploring the more immediate problems of emergency response and evacuation planning in the context of a heavily degraded transportation network [F13]. Traditional queueing theoretic models to simulate evacuation [KDW12] will not be sufficient because they cannot easily make use of dynamic hazards such as the contours of a fallout plume generated by the detonation of a CBRNe device. To address the challenges of dynamic hazards and disrupted networks, we are employing graph theoretic techniques from transportation engineering, which can characterize the geospatial properties of a transportation network at the level of detail needed to formulate high resolution emergency response and evacuation plans for potential customers. The proposed work can be integrated into the Real Time Evacuation Planning Model (RtePM) [R13] developed at the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center (VMASC). However, the RtePM license model may not be compatible with SUMMIT data security requirements. Moreover, enhancements to RtePM will be needed to ensure that the proposed research can be properly integrated. These are discussed in Section 10, where we outline our technical approach. Mohammad Karim, Vice President of Research at Old Dominion University (ODU) from 20042013 recently joined the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth as Provost and Executive Vice Chancellor. He has agreed to facilitate collaboration between researchers at UMass Dartmouth, the VMASC at ODU, and interested third parties. 9. Major Products and Customers: SUMMIT is used to support several emergency exercises, including the National Level Exercises (NLE), a set of activities organized by the FEMA each year to test the Region-level coordination of authorities and identify interoperability weaknesses and capabilities needed for continuous improvement. Because SUMMIT is designed to support all fifteen of the National Planning Scenarios, customers include first responders to terrorist incidents, cyber-attacks, as well as natural disasters. In addition to clients within FEMA, risk analysts at the Homeland Security Systems Engineering and Development Institute (HS-SEDI) a DHS federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) use SUMMIT to evaluate the criticality of various scenarios in the context of their mission to connect and integrate across DHS missions to secure America. 10. Technical Approach: This section summarizes our understanding of RtePM [R13]. We then identify limitations and opportunities for integration. RtePM employs methods from transportation engineering to quantify the impact of transportation network congestion on the time required to evacuate and area. These congestion models are typically formulated as an optimization problem, with the objective to minimize the total travel time of all vehicles within the network. Because the transportation network is encoded as a graph consisting of vertices and edges, trips within the network may be characterized as a “demand” matrix, where the (i,j)th entry denotes the number of trips wishing to travel from vertex i to vertex j. In the context of evacuation, the destination of all trips is to one or more reception centers [KDW12] to receive medical treatment and food supplies or to a shelter based on the nature of the hazard prompting evacuation. In the future, RtePM plans to support real time traffic that could utilize time varying “demand” matrix models [CBM10] to more accurately predict and coordinate the time required to conduct an evacuation. Presently, RtePM requires that road closures and modifications be specified manually, limiting its utility as a dynamic decision support system for disaster management. In contrast, the game theoretic and optimization methods we propose to develop can utilize a combination of actual and potential disruptions to minimize vulnerability. The game theory component involves a router and an attacker. The router seeks the safest most convenient path for all evacuees, while the attacker closes or modifies the available links in the transportation network to maximally disrupt the evacuation and the harm that results. The attacker utilizes the transportation congestion model to identify the best links to disrupt. This game can identify the relative criticality of edges representing road segments on the efficiency of an evacuation plan. The game can also be used as the objective function of an optimization problem, where the constraints are a limited budget to deploy damage mitigating and protective technologies that preserve the carrying capacity of the transportation network to minimize evacuation time and minimize population exposure to risk. Because games on graphs are computationally complex heuristic techniques may be required to identify near optimal defense strategies. Such an approach can also be used to dynamically produce a list of routes to reception centers and regions of the city assigned to each of these routes in a format suitable for emergency broadcast. 11. References: [F13] L. Fiondella, “An algorithm to prioritize road network restoration after a regional event,” In Proc. of IEEE International Conf. on Technologies for Homeland Security, Nov 2013. [FRL12] L. Fiondella, A. Rahman, J. Liu, S. Tolba, S. Rajasekaran, R. Ammar, N. Lownes, and J. Ivan, “Game theoretic vulnerability analysis for the optimal defense of high speed rail,” in Proc. of IEEE International Conf. on Technologies for Homeland Security, 2012, pp. 305–311. [KDW12] A. Kirby, J. Dietz, and C. Wojtalewicz, “Modeling of a regional hub reception center to improve the speed of an urban area evacuation,” in Proc. of IEEE International Conf. on Technologies for Homeland Security, 2012, pp. 476-482. [MM12] J. Mapur and K. Mahrous, “The role of integrated modeling and simulation in disaster preparedness and emergency preparedness and response: The SUMMIT platform,” in Proc. of IEEE International Conf. on Technologies for Homeland Security, 2012, pp. 117–122. [CBM10] Y. Chiu, J. Bottom, M. Mahut, A. Paz, R. Balakrishna, T. Waller, and J. Hicks, “A Primer for Dynamic Traffic,” Technical Report of the ADB30 Transportation Network Modeling Committee Transportation Research Board, 2010. [WFL11] Q. Wang, L. Fiondella, N. Lownes, J. Ivan, R. Ammar, S. Rajasekaran, and S. Tolba, “Integrating equilibrium assignment in game-theoretic approach to measure many-to-many transportation network vulnerability,” in Proc. of IEEE International Conf. on Technologies for Homeland Security, 2011, pp. 351–357. [R13] Michael Robinson, “Real Time Evacuation Planning Model Users Guide VMASC Version 1.0,” Available online at: http://rtepm.vmasc.odu.edu/, 2013. [RFL14] A. Rahman, L. Fiondella, and N. Lownes, “A Bi-Objective Optimization to Identify Regulatory Framework for Hazardous Materials Routing.” Journal of the Transportation Research Forum (JRTF), (in press). 12. Major Milestones and Dates: 1. Develop expertise programming in SUMMIT environment to ensure the project can be carried out according to the following timeline. (January 2014-August 2014) 2. Assess existing data flows present in SUMMIT scenarios and identify requirements of transportation simulations. (July 2014-August 2014) 3. Implement prototype transportation simulation component and perform integration testing within SUMMIT. (September 2014-April 2015) 4. Thoroughly document requirements of a transportation module capable of addressing each of the 15 National Planning Scenarios. (April 2015-May 2015) 5. Prepare a white paper for submission to HS-ARPA Resilient Systems Division and other suitable opportunities. (June 2015) 13. Project Deliverables: 1. A software prototype of the transportation module for integration with SUMMIT. 2. A paper for submission to the IEEE Conference on Technologies for Homeland Security, summarizing the basic scientific discoveries derived from the project.
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